NCAA Basketball Tournament 2015: Schedule, Bracket and Updated Title Odds

This year's NCAA tournament has finally showed its hand, thanks in large part to the first half of the Sweet 16 on Thursday. Trends tend to develop early in the second weekend, which is the case in 2015, and it is the gap between the top of college basketball is vastly better than everyone else. 

Think about all the effort that went into pumping up West Virginia in its game against Kentucky, only to see the Wildcats win by 39. The other games were close, save for Notre Dame pulling away in the second half against Wichita State, but none of the underdogs could find enough juice to keep up. 

Now, it's possible Friday's final batch of Sweet 16 games can throw everyone for a loop.  Yet based on the returns from the tournament thus far, no one would be shocked to see Duke and Gonzaga win. Louisville vs. North Carolina State and Oklahoma vs. Michigan State are essentially pick 'em games. 

Whatever actually ends up happening is for the future, so let's examine how things stand heading into Friday's games after the events that have already transpired. 

Matchup	Start Time (ET)	Network	Spread
No. 11 UCLA vs. No. 2 Gonzaga	7:15 p.m.	CBS	Gonzaga (-9)
No. 8 North Carolina State vs. No. 4 Louisville	7:37 p.m.	TBS	Louisville (-2.5)
No. 5 Utah vs. No. 1 Duke	Approx. 9:45 p.m.	CBS	Duke (-5)
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Oklahom	Approx. 10:07	TBS	MSU (-1.5)

Team	Odds
Kentucky	1-1
Arizona	13-2
Duke	8-1
Wisconsin	8-1
Gonzaga	12-1
Michigan State	14-1
Utah	20-1
Louisville	25-1
Oklahoma	25-1
Notre Dame	33-1
North Carolina State	50-1
UCLA	100-1

The fascinating thing about three of the four games on Friday is how each team closely mirrors its opponent, with maybe one slight tweak here or there.

For instance, Duke is one of the best shooting teams in the nation, while Utah ranks 13th in field-goal percentage, per ESPN. The difference is the Blue Devils play at such a fast pace that their shooting ability allows the offense to average 80.6 points per game. 

One reason for the Blue Devils' success shooting is Jahlil Okafor, The star center plays so close to the basket that it allows him to shoot 66.9 percent from the field, not to mention all the attention opposing defenses have to give him that leads to wide-open opportunities outside for shooters like Quinn Cook, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones. 

Okafor is an outlier in college basketball, which is typically driven by speed and athletic guards. As Luke Winn of Sports Illustrated recently wrote, if Duke wins, it would be the first team to run an offense through the inside-out in years:

"

The last time a post-centric team won the national title was in 2009, when North Carolina relied on heavy doses of forwards Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson. In the six seasons that Synergy Sports Technology has been widely tracking Division I games, the average team has gone from using 10.0% of its possessions on post-up scoring attempts (in ’09–10) to 8.2% through the end of the regular season, and film study confirms that back-to-the-basket play accounted for a much bigger portion of offense in the 1980s and ’90s than it has in this millennium.

"

Utah's best chance to win the game, short of finding an answer for Okafor, is hoping the double-teams on the freshman star force him to pass back outside where all of the shooters are having an off night.

That strategy worked for Notre Dame in the ACC tournament, when Winslow, Jones and Cook went a combined 2 of 13 from three-point range. No one in the country will outscore Duke, so a win will have to come from the defensive end. 

Uncredited/Associated Press

Oklahoma and Michigan State have good balance between offense and defense, though it may be surprising to know the Sooners are more efficient on defense. In fact, per Kenpom's rankings, Lon Kruger's team is sixth in points allowed per 100 possessions (90.4). 

Kruger, like his team, is also underrated. He has already made history, per ESPN Stats & Info, when Oklahoma defeated Albany in the round of 64:

The problem for Kruger and the Sooners is they have to play March's favorite son in Tom Izzo. The Spartans head coach pulls strings as well as anyone in the tournament, even when he should be the underdog, per ESPN Stats & Info:

There's a strong temptation to take Oklahoma, if for no reason other than it's not getting any respect despite being the higher-seeded team, but the Spartans are operating at a level everyone expected when they started the year as a top-20 team. 

It's only two games, but Michigan State has held Georgia and Virginia to a combined 36-of-114 shooting. That's a ridiculously high bar to keep playing at, yet there were signs this was coming in the Big Ten tournament against Ohio State, Maryland and even Wisconsin before the Badgers' late comeback. 

Chris Carlson/Associated Press

UCLA and Gonzaga is the only game that looks like a blowout on paper, yet the two teams are defined in large part by their top star. Bryce Alford has been playing out of his mind for the Bruins this tournament, scoring 49 total points on 15-of-26 shooting. 

Jon Gold of The Tucson Star also made sure to note that Alford's effort this tournament says his talent proves nepotism isn't at play for UCLA:

"

Despite the Alford jokes, one thing is still clear: Bryce has game. This isn't DaddyBall. DaddyBall would be Kory Alford starting.

— Jon Gold (@TheCoolSub) March 21, 2015"

Alford will likely have to play better than he already has for the Bruins to win, because Gonzaga counters with arguably the nation's best shooter in Kyle Wiltjer. He's been red hot, hitting 18 of 24 attempts through two tournament games. 

The difference is the Bulldogs as a team shot 52.6 percent from the floor, while UCLA's overall shooting percentage is 44.5, per ESPN. There's not enough weapons for Steve Alford's team to keep pace in this game. 

North Carolina State vs. Louisville is the only game in which the two sides are polar opposites. Per Kenpom stats, the Cardinals are fifth in defense and 75th in offense; the Wolfpack are 27th in offense and 81st in defense. 

Louisville is a team that has to be perfect on defense each night because the offense doesn't bring much to the table. Even in two tournament wins, Rick Pitino's team has only scored a total of 123 points. 

N.C. State has been erratic all year, but when it's right, things are going well. The Wolfpack knocked off Louisville in an ACC game earlier this season, in which they shot 44.8 percent against that vaunted defense. They also held the Cardinals to 32.8 percent shooting. 

As much as everyone loves to say defense wins championships, that only counts if the offense holds up its end of the bargain enough. Louisville doesn't have the scoring capability that any other team still playing does. Eventually someone will have to hit a shot for the Cardinals to win. 

In that scenario, it's hard to trust that Pitino's bunch keeps playing beyond Friday night.