Ranking the Top 2015 NBA Draft Prospects in the Elite 8
There are still a slew of quality NBA draft prospects remaining in the 2015 NCAA tournament as we enter the Elite Eight.
We narrowed our focus to the top 10 candidates remaining, and it's a group brimming with talent.
Several high-lottery studs are still in action entering the national quarterfinals, including a couple of freshman phenoms challenging for the No. 1 overall selection. Also advancing are some dark-horse impact players from the ACC and a pair of Wisconsin Badgers veterans.
We compiled the top 10 prospects based on statistics and tangible pro-caliber skill potential, and the players are ranked in order of overall draft value.
What have we learned about these NBA hopefuls in recent games, and what should scouts be looking for during upcoming matchups? Find out as we dissect the upper echelon.
10. Sam Dekker, Wisconsin SF (6'9", Junior)
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Tourney Stats: 20.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, .571 FG%, .381 3FG%
After being (rightfully) overshadowed by Frank Kaminsky all season, Sam Dekker is using March Madness to remind NBA decision-makers why he's a quality option in the middle of the first round.
He's engineered a magnificent tournament run, complete with efficient scoring, versatile defense and rebounding. His two-way fireworks against UNC were particularly eye-popping as he unloaded a career-high 23 points on the Tar Heels.
Dekker's arsenal includes long-range shooting, aggressive slashes from the wing and timely cuts along the baseline. His isolation skills are solid, but he burns opponents more often as an off-ball weapon.
He doesn't project to flourish in the NBA defensively, but his footwork and size should hold down the fort against most small forwards.
If you're looking for an NBA comparison for the Badgers star, think somewhere between Kyle Singler and Gordon Hayward. He won't likely be as creative as Hayward, but his ceiling is certainly higher than a rotational wing.
9. Montrezl Harrell, Louisville PF (6'8", Junior)
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Tourney Stats: 15.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 2.0 APG, .548 FG%
Louisville star forward Montrezl Harrell bombarded the North Carolina State Wolfpack for 24 points, six rebounds and four assists Friday. The dominant performance advanced the Cardinals to the Elite Eight and illustrated why he'll be tough to contain in the NBA.
Harrell's bread and butter is attacking the hoop with strength and vertical explosiveness. He's at his best when he's moving toward the bucket—there's no doubt about it.
However, there's some evidence to suggest he'll be more than a dunker at the pro level.
I'm not sold on his jump-shooting aptitude, but he intermittently displays promising low-post moves and even the occasional running hook. In the win over North Carolina State, he also dealt four huge assists. If he can sprinkle those in, along with a 12- to 15-foot jumper, he'll dramatically increase his NBA role.
Harrell is listed at 6'8" by most media outlets, but that might be a little generous since DraftExpress measured him at 6'6 ½" with shoes on prior to his sophomore season. Even if he's grown since then, he's going to be a short power forward.
Some NBA bigs will be able to shoot over him, which is something his team will have to live with. Fortunately, he'll use his massive wingspan and nonstop tenacity to win position battles and make life difficult for attackers.
8. Trey Lyles, Kentucky PF (6'10", Freshman)
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Tourney Stats: 11.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.7 APG, .462 FG%
Trey Lyles plays alongside a couple of prospects who will likely be drafted ahead of him, yet he's forcing scouts to not sleep on him.
Kentucky's "other" big man owns an irresistible combination of height and skill. He's 6'10" with a wingspan over 7'0", yet he can softly hit jumpers, face up and drive or operate in the post. Lyles flashed some of his repertoire in a 4-of-7 outing against West Virginia, notching 14 points and two assists in 29 minutes.
The way he plays is just as impressive as the actual stats. Lyles moves and attacks with a fluidity seldom found in 6'10" freshmen.
He gives the squad a special dimension offensively. Earlier in March, head coach John Calipari noted how Lyles takes them to a scary-good level:
"He’s the one that makes us go from pretty good (to) really good to, ‘Uh-oh, what am I watching?'" Calipari told Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv.
Defense is Lyles' most suspect area, but in recent games he's done a solid job of sliding, rotating and contesting shots. He has enough agility to cover most 4s, and he could eventually check some taller 3s in the Association.
7. Jerian Grant, Notre Dame PG (6'5", Senior)
4 of 10
Tourney Stats: 14.0 PPG, 7.0 APG, 1.3 SPG, .469 FG%, .250 3FG%
Notre Dame's Jerian Grant isn't as young as D'Angelo Russell or Emmanuel Mudiay, so he doesn't have the brilliant upside attached to his draft stock.
But if you're a mid-first-round team looking to add a guard to the rotation, he'll provide tremendous value. Grant can flat-out create offense, and he's leading one of the highest-scoring teams in the NCAA field.
The speedy slasher scored 16-plus in each of the Irish's first two tournament wins, and then he served as facilitator extraordinaire in the Sweet 16 win over Wichita State. Grant had 11 assists and showcased his knack for finding the vulnerable spots in opposing defenses.
Up next, he faces the length and athleticism of Kentucky's vaunted defense. It will be his toughest test yet, but USA Today's Chris Chase thinks Grant can give the Wildcats trouble if he can provide a balanced attack of inside-out scoring:
"(Grant) knows how to space the floors, get teammates to set picks and always makes the right shot or pass. He's the fuel that makes Notre Dame go," said Chase. "If he's driving, shooting and defending, Kentucky could have problems with his speed."
Grant's ability to generate shots for himself and his comrades should translate smoothly to the NBA. It's too generous to project stardom, but he could compete for a starting spot, depending on where he lands.
6. Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin PF/C (7'0", Senior)
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Tourney Stats: 20.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.7 APG, .553 FG%, .667 3FG%
After a relatively quiet first half against North Carolina, Frank Kaminsky played a critical role in Wisconsin's second-half comeback.
In the process, he showed us why he's a top-shelf draft commodity. He drove for buckets in the lane, sank outside jumpers and guarded the Tar Heels' imposing front line.
And perhaps most impressively, he coolly drilled crucial free throws to preserve the Badgers' lead at the end of the game.
"Seriously, what other team is inbounding to their center when they need clutch free throws?" asked Maxwell Ogden of HoopsHabit.
Considering Kaminsky's statistical body of work and consistent demonstration of skills, his draft outlook is safe at this point. He's not going to slip past that No. 10 to No. 15 range.
However, lottery scouts will still be glued to his Elite Eight and potential Final Four performances. It's an opportunity to see how successful he could be against athletic, high-caliber front lines like Arizona's and Kentucky's. If he can shine against those types of units, his stock could move into the top 10.
5. Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky C (7'0", Junior)
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Tourney Stats: 8.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 2.3 BPG, .438 FG%
It seems like Willie Cauley-Stein's role in the NBA will be fairly simple, yet he's an incredibly rare and valuable prospect.
There aren't many 7-footers who can cover ground like he can. He can bolt up the court in transition, slide speedily in half-court scenarios and change directions on a dime if need be. This makes him versatile defensively, and it also gives him opportunities on offense.
Chris Herring of the The Wall Street Journal talked about Cauley-Stein's plethora of defensive gifts:
"Cauley-Stein’s quickness and ability to defend guards as well as centers allow the Wildcats to switch without being at a disadvantage. Cauley-Stein often guards the opposing team’s best scorer, regardless of position.
Watching film, it almost looks as if he sometimes wants shorter players to get a half step on him, in hopes of inducing a shot. That’s how much Cauley-Stein trusts his length and foot speed.
"
He's drawn widespread comparisons to Tyson Chandler because he's an elite rim protector whose offense is limited. That's fair, because Cauley-Stein rarely does more than finish alley-oops or convert close-range putbacks.
However, I'll offer that the young Wildcats star has a good chance to be better than Chandler. He's shown glimpses of short bank shots, runners, and baby hooks, and he'll surpass the Mavericks center if he cultivates those moves.
4. Stanley Johnson, Arizona SF (6'7", Freshman)
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Tourney Stats: 12.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.7 SPG, .394 FG%, .429 3FG%
Stanley Johnson's NCAA tourney stats aren't gaudy, but he's a huge reason the Arizona Wildcats are in the Elite Eight. His dynamic two-way impact continues to fuel NBA talk.
Jump shooting was his most questionable attribute entering this season, but he's hit 37 percent of his triples and 44 percent of his two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com. His form and delivery still aren't as fluid as NBA scouts would like, but you can't deny his development and effectiveness.
Even when he has an off night as a shooter, he remains immensely versatile and valuable. Johnson uses his strength and athleticism to crash the boards, defend aggressively and create off the bounce.
His draft placement is not firmly established, as he could land as high as fifth or as low as the late lottery. He's in competition with Justise Winslow and Mario Hezonja for "best wing" status, and B/R's Tyler Conway notes that a Final Four run could propel Johnson past those two:
"There is a legitimate chance by the time nets are being cut down that he's overtaken Winslow and Croatian Mario Hezonja as the top small forward in this class."
If his jump shot is for real, it's going to be hard for teams to pass on him in June. Johnson has an ideal physique, predatory instincts and a willingness to contribute in all phases.
3. Justise Winslow, Duke SF (6'7", Freshman)
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Tourney Stats: 13.3 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.0 BPG, .571 FG%, .625 3FG%
With 21 points, 10 boards and two blocks against Utah, Justise Winslow turned in yet another exceptional all-around performance for the Blue Devils. He's giving lottery teams every reason to pluck him as high as No. 5 overall.
The 6'7" freshman has become Duke's all-purpose weapon during the Big Dance. He's overwhelmed many opponents with his ranginess and athleticism, showing a mix of slashing, passing and defense.
While his offensive repertoire is still developing, he does a great job of making simple drives to the rim and drilling open three-pointers. On the other end, he's a disruptive force when he's dialed in, checking multiple positions and creating bushels of turnovers.
"Justise Winslow is destined to be one of those elite do-it-all players at the next level," said ESPN's Jeff Borzello. "The Kawhi Leonards, Jimmy Butlers, etc."
Once he sharpens his fundamentals and expands his mid-range skills, he'll be a tough cover in the Association. For now, his explosiveness is his greatest asset, and it may be the key to Duke downing Gonzaga Sunday.
2. Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky PF/C (7'0", Freshman)
9 of 10
Tourney Stats: 10.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.0 BPG, .526 FG% (20.3 MPG)
Despite his underwhelming tournament performances, Karl-Anthony Towns remains an elite prospect and a contender for the No. 1 overall spot.
NBA scouts and executives shouldn't be alarmed by his modest offensive output, including the 0-of-3 shooting night against West Virginia. Towns is part of a historically deep Kentucky squad, so he isn't asked to carry them every night.
The one stat that needs to be addressed, however, is his foul rate. He's averaging 5.7 fouls per 40 minutes, including four fouls in just 13 minutes against the Mountaineers Thursday.
Those numbers reflect a mixture of poor discipline and relentless aggressiveness as a rim protector. Due to Kentucky's unlimited resources, he can afford to challenge every shot, but at the same time, he needs to improve his positioning and develop better habits.
It's not something that will heavily influence his draft outlook; rather, it's something for his NBA team to keep in mind as it transitions him to the pro level.
Towns' blend of agility, length and blossoming skills will enable him to quickly stand out in the NBA. He'll be able to score inside and out, rebound and protect the rim. Any lottery team should feel lucky to land him, especially if he's available at No. 2 or No. 3.
1. Jahlil Okafor, Duke C (6'11", Freshman)
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Tourney Stats: 17.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.3 BPG, .727 FG%
Jahlil Okafor didn't have a monster game in the Sweet 16, but his formidable presence has loomed over the entire South Region of the NCAA tourney.
During his run past Robert Morris, San Diego State and Utah, he's quieted a couple of concerns surrounding his game.
Firstly, he's shown that he can play away from the basket. Okafor moves his feet well for his size, and he can face up opponents from the elbow or wing and drive to the hoop.
He's also shown that he's not an awful rim protector. As a unit, Duke is playing its best defense of the year, so he's in better position to make sound plays and block shots. He's used his 7'5" wingspan to register three straight multiblock games.
After surviving Utah's towering front line, he faces Gonzaga's stout group of big men. Let's see if he can slow down the massive frame of Przemek Karnowski and the activity of Domantas Sabonis.
Daniel O'Brien covers the NBA draft for Bleacher Report.
Follow him on Twitter: @DanielO_BR.
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