NCAA Bracket 2015: Picks and Updated Odds Ahead of Friday's Sweet 16 Schedule

Now the real madness can begin. After Thursday's opening slate of Sweet 16 games, the NCAA tournament has officially taken shape. The opening weekend was supposed to provide more drama than it wound up giving, so this weekend has to make up for those unrealized expectations. 

More importantly, the four remaining games in the Sweet 16 are inherently more interesting than their Thursday counterparts. There's the mess happening in the East Region with no team seeded higher than third remaining, along with South titans Duke and Gonzaga trying to fend off upset-minded teams.

In other words, it's everything one could look for in a night of NCAA tournament action. Let's just hope the games can live up to the hype, which will be added to here with a look at final odds and what to watch for.  

Matchup	Start Time (ET)	Network	Spread	Pick
No. 11 UCLA vs. No. 2 Gonzaga	7:15 p.m.	CBS	Gonzaga (-10)	Gonzaga, 74-64
No. 8 N.C. State vs. No. 4 Louisville	7:37 p.m.	TBS	Louisville (-1.5)	N.C. State, 67-63
No. 5 Utah vs. No. 1 Duke	Approx. 9:45 p.m.	CBS	Duke (-4.5)	Duke, 74-70
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma	Approx. 10:07 p.m.	TBS	Michigan State (-2)	MSU, 65-60

Preview of Friday's Games

Beck Diefenbach/Associated Press

It's fitting the night kicks off with UCLA vs. Gonzaga, because that's the game everyone will want to get out of the way early. Let's not forget the that Bruins were given a gift when the selection committee put them in the tournament, a sentiment that shouldn't change because of a fluke win over SMU and blowout over UAB. 

Meanwhile, for just the second time as a three seed or better, Gonzaga has made it to the Sweet 16. The Bulldogs had no problems disposing of North Dakota State and Iowa, scoring 173 total points and shooting 62-of-110 from the floor. 

This is also a matchup we've seen this season, with Gonzaga shooting 58.5 percent from the field in an 87-74 win at Pauley Pavilion on December 13. There's really no argument UCLA has learned from that game, losing the next four games after the Bulldogs left and going 12-10 overall before the tournament since that loss. 

Mark Few's team is going to cruise into the Elite Eight, so let's move to the games where there appears to be more drama. 

North Carolina State is a fascinating team in the Sweet 16. Even though most would consider the Wolfpack a Cinderella, not many teams can claim to hold victories over Duke, North Carolina and Louisville. Speaking of the Cardinals, there aren't going to be any secrets between these two ACC rivals. 

Trevor Lacey is an emerging star in this tournament, even getting national attention from CBS analyst Steve Smith against Villanova (h/t Yahoo Sports' Jason McIntyre):

Fortunately for N.C. State, it doesn't have to rely solely on Lacey to win games because Ralston Turner and Anthony Barber add different dimensions. Turner is the deep sharpshooter, hitting 36.3 percent of his three-point attempts, while Barber can score anywhere on the floor. 

As for Louisville, this is a team that's got to get by on defense because scoring is not going to come easily. Ron Clements of Sporting News talked about the Cardinals' lack of offensive ability in a breakdown of this game:

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The Cardinals scored less than 60 points in five of their final six regular-season games following Jones’ departure. The Cardinals had scored 60 or more points in all but five of their first 25 games. They scored 57 in a two-point win over UC-Irvine before Sunday's 66-53 victory over Northern Iowa. 

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I've been expecting Louisville to lose since the round of 64, though Rick Pitino's team hasn't gone up against an opponent as athletic or versatile as N.C. State up to this point. As great as having a strong defense is, eventually, you have to score to win in the tournament. 

The Wolfpack may not have the seeding to prove it, but they are better at this point in the season than Louisville. 

Next up chronologically is Utah vs. Duke, which is a game where some analysts are expecting an upset. Myron Medcalf of ESPN.com discussed why the Utes deserve more credit than they are getting:

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Duke is a great team. Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones comprise one of the top trios in the country. But Utah is playing with the offensive and defensive balance that will allow it to keep the game tight until the final minute or two. That’s when Delon Wright will grab his cape, find a phone booth and ruin brackets around the world.

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No one disputes that Utah has earned its spot in the Sweet 16, disposing of Stephen F. Austin and Georgetown in two very different games. 

Yet as Medcalf mentioned, Duke owns a trio in Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones that's as good as any in the country outside of Kentucky. 

Ted Richardson/Associated Press

Okafor is obviously the key that makes the Blue Devils go. He wasn't needed against Robert Morris, despite having 21 points, but was masterful against San Diego State around the rim with 26 points. 

Brendan Prunty of Sports Illustrated even pointed out how Okafor creates so many matchup problems for opponents and opportunities for teammates:

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The shooting of senior guard Quinn Cook (9-for-18 from outside in the tournament), the ballhandling of freshman Tyus Jones (13 assists and only three turnovers in the two games) and the all-around excellence of freshman forward Justise Winslow (19 points, 23 rebounds, four steals and four blocks in the tournament so far) and opponents are going to have to decide how they want to get beat. They can double-down on Okafor and hope his teammates miss shots or let Okafor get his, while trying to defend Duke's perimeter shooters. 

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This does open up Duke to being vulnerable if those stars aren't hitting shots, because the defense isn't great at No. 44 in efficiency rating by Kenpom.com. That doesn't sound like a bad defensive number, but keep in mind it's also a product of opponents having to force bad three-point attempts to keep games close. 

Take away Winslow's and Cook's shooting prowess, and suddenly, Duke doesn't look as strong. You know how the Blue Devils lost to Notre Dame in the ACC tournament? They shot 3-of-17 from three-point range. 

Okafor also needs to make his presence felt more around the glass, only grabbing nine rebounds in two tournament games. Duke still gets the edge because it hasn't proved to be incapable of shooting since that Notre Dame loss, but Utah has shown it can function like a chameleon in terms of adjusting to its opponents. 

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

In the final game on Friday, there's no split between Oklahoma and Michigan State. No one even wants to talk about the Sooners because they are going against the almighty Spartans and Tom Izzo in March. 

Let's discuss what gives Oklahoma a shot in this game. Did you see what Michigan State did to Virginia's offense in the round of 32, holding the Cavaliers to 29.8 percent shooting?

Well, the Sooners aren't afraid to play physical with an opponent, as noted by Joe Giglio of The News & Observer:

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The Sooners are a tough defensive team (sixth in Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings) that can rebound (top 25 in the country), and they have a volume scorer (junior guard Buddy Hield).

...

Hield can fill it up. The 6-4, 200-pound junior has had 12 games with 20 points or more and had 31 against Kansas State on Jan. 10. Considering the rest of the team scored 32 against the Wildcats, that was impressive.

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When you have a stellar defense and proven scorer—even one like Buddy Hield, who has put up 15 points in each tournament game—there's a strong chance to defeat a team like Michigan State that doesn't overwhelm anyone with offense. 

Yet it's hard not to love the Spartans in this spot. Travis Trice is playing as well as he has all year, dropping 38 points on 13-of-30 shooting in two tournament wins. John Neidhart of The State News went so far as to say MSU's senior could be the 2015 version of Shabazz Napier, with one major exception:

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The difference between Trice and Napier, however, is that MSU’s success doesn’t necessarily hinge on big scoring games from Trice.

Sure, the Spartans need their big three to collectively perform at the highest level, but with contributions coming from off the bench and senior forward Branden Dawson playing the way he is around the basket, Trice doesn’t need to carry his team the way Napier did.

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Izzo has a knack for building teams during the regular season to prepare them for the tournament. That helps explain why Michigan State didn't always look sexy en route to a 19-9 record before March started. A run to the Big Ten tournament final against Wisconsin proved the Spartans found their rhythm. 

Two subsequent wins, including that impressive defensive effort against Virginia, suggests Izzo has put all his ducks in a row and is inevitably going to another Elite Eight. Oklahoma will play a tougher game than it's being given credit for, but the Spartans are locked in right now.