Stanley Johnson Can Solidify Top-10 Pick in 2015 NBA Draft with Deep Tourney Run

Right away, Stanley Johnson has a presence. Standing at 6'7" and weighing in at 245 pounds, the Arizona forward looks nothing like your typical 18-year-old kid. He looks almost Ron Artestian in his presence, a child blessed with a grown man's body, able to out-leap you with his legs and out-muscle you with his arms.

Then you watch him play basketball and things immediately click together. The Artestian features don't just show up in street clothes. They're there when he's playing defense, bullying smaller wings and holding his own against bigs two and three inches taller. It's apparent in the way he barrels into the lane—at times a little too enthusiastically—and the way his greatness can come and go.

Arizona's NCAA tournament run has already seen the best and worst sides of Johnson. In the round of 64, the surefire lottery pick scored 22 points, grabbed five rebounds and knocked down four shots from beyond the arc to help the Wildcats thrash 15th-seeded Texas Southern. By Saturday he'd devolved into an active minus, shooting 1-of-12 from the floor, missing all four of his threes and combining with D'Angelo Russell for perhaps the worst head-to-head matchup of lottery picks this calendar year.

The Wildcats managed to advance despite their star, with vets T.J. McConnell and Gabe York each turning in a team-high 19 points. But what was impressive about Johnson's performance is the way he continued working despite his offensive failures. His motor never stopped churning defensively, adding 10 rebounds and two steals, all while having the confidence to continue creating shots offensively. That wouldn't have happened early in the season, when Johnson would take himself out of the offensive plan entirely at times.

"We wouldn't be here without Stanley," McConnell said, per Fox Sports Arizona's Steve Rivera. "I thought it was tough chemistry-wise (early in the year). (But) we've done a complete (turnaround). Our chemistry is just as good, if not better than it was last year."

Entering the tournament's second weekend, there is perhaps no player with a better opportunity to boost his draft stock than Johnson. Depending on how you rank the players, as many as 10 and as few as six lottery picks will be in action over the next four days.

Some, like Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns, have done enough to solidify top-five status regardless of how they fare the rest of the way. Others, like Justise Winslow and the cabal of pro-ready Wildcats playing with Towns, aren't the stars on their own team and/or have to split the workload in too many ways. UCLA's Kevon Looney is raw and can often be the fifth wheel on his own team. Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky is a perfect collegiate alpha dog, but we have so much film on him there is no way opinions can shift about him much over the next couple of weeks.

Johnson? Things could go one of a few ways.

There is a legitimate chance by the time nets are being cut down that he's overtaken Winslow and Croatian Mario Hezonja as the top small forward in this class. Play two-way basketball similar to his opening-game brilliance and topple Kentucky on the way to a national championship, and it's not only possible; it's also likely.

Johnson isn't the locker room leader at Arizona—that distinction would go to McConnell—but he's viewed as by far the best potential pro. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is the only other potential first-rounder listed on Chad Ford's big board. We've also seen time and again how much NBA scouts can become infatuated with tournament stars even when the regular-season game film tells them otherwise.

Johnson's regular-season film is impeccable. He's been consistently solid all season, shooting a far better three-point percentage (37.3) than anyone could have hoped while flashing some nifty dribble-drive moves. Couple that with an insatiable motor, NBA body and excellent athleticism, and it's not that hard to talk yourself into Johnson as a ready-made pro product. 

“He’s a man-child,’’ an NBA scout told Mitch Lawrence of Forbes. “He’s 6-6 or 6-7, 245 pounds, and he’s built like a linebacker. But here’s the deal: He’s got a lot of skills. He can shoot it and he can handle the ball. He rebounds. If he comes out, he’s going to be a top lottery pick.”

Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

There's also the flip side to that argument. Poking holes in Johnson's game isn't all that difficult, either. It is a surprise to see him shoot a solid percentage from three because his jumper isn't fluid or exactly beautiful; it's functional. He also has a propensity to barrel his head into the lane with no real plan, fumbling the ball away or hoisting an ill-advised shot; last Saturday was filled with such instances.

One could also call into question whether Johnson's quite tall enough to play an NBA small forward position. He's listed at 6'7", near the bottom of the professional threshold at that position. An elimination at the hands of Xavier, a measurement slightly below that 6'7" figure at the combine and...you can see where this is headed.

Winslow has a more obvious NBA game. Hezonja is beloved by international scouts. NBA teams get a little hesitant about the guy with the shaky jumper, and suddenly Johnson is battling to stay in the back half of the lottery. As a frame of reference, the difference between being the fifth pick and the 12th is roughly $4 million over the first three years of an NBA contract.

No pressure or anything.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter