Why Gonzaga Poses the Biggest Threat to Kentucky's Title March

For over four months, the college basketball world has thrown answers at a problem that may have no solution. Thirty-six times the Kentucky Wildcats have been tried, and 36 times the opposition has failed, but that just may be because the perfect solution—the Gonzaga Bulldogs—has yet to meet this perfect problem.

Though their campuses sit over 2,000 miles away from one another, Kentucky and Gonzaga appear to be on a collision course to meet in the national title game at Lucas Oil Stadium on April 6.

Fifteen other teams remain standing in the NCAA tournament, but only one can stop the beast—the boys from the Great Northwest.

Since taking over in 1999, Gonzaga coach Mark Few has never advanced past the Sweet 16. He’s also never had a team as talented and versatile as this one.

The Bulldogs’ senior backcourt of Gary Pangos and Gary Bell has 261 total starts between them. Junior center Przemek Karnowski’s 7’1”, 288-pound body takes up more paint area than even Kentucky’s colossi.

Graduate transfer Byron Wesley, who averaged 17.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game at USC last season, has selflessly sacrificed statistics for wins—though his four 20-plus-point performances this year show he’s still a scoring threat.

The growth of Lithuanian prodigy Domantas Sabonis—the 6’10” son of basketball legend Arvydas Sabonis—off the bench has added an edge the Bulldogs have always seemed to lack. Sabonis brings a rabid, frenetic energy off the bench and loves to clash down low despite a somewhat wiry frame.

All of these moving parts have melded together to produce an efficient, dangerous stew, especially on the offensive end.

The experience, coaching and all-around skill of Gonzaga makes these Bulldogs the squad most qualified to be the iceberg to Calipari’s Titanic.

Yet, while all of those pieces are vital to conquering the unconquered, Gonzaga’s Goliath-beating credentials begin and end with an All-American defector who chose to eschew Kentucky blue in favor of a different shade.

The Rise of Kyle Wiltjer

On March 19, 2013, SEC Sixth Man of the Year Kyle Wiltjer walked to the Kentucky locker room following a first-round loss to Robert Morris in the NIT. This moment marked Wiltjer’s last moments as a Wildcat.

Those finals steps with Kentucky would eventually lead the former McDonald’s All-American to his new home in the Pacific Northwest.

Wiltjer emerged from college basketball purgatory on November 14, 2014 a Gonzaga Bulldog. The 22-year-old was now Mark Few’s starting power forward and the best player on a team starving for a deep, meaningful March run.

Wiltjer is already a national champion; he won the 2012 NCAA National Championship with Kentucky but played just 35 total minutes in those six games.

Though Wiltjer had success at Kentucky, he never truly fit the mold of a Calipari player. At Gonzaga, Wiltjer has transformed himself from a deep threat into one of the most dangerous offensive players in college basketball.

The WCC Newcomer of the Year has averaged 17.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.9 three-pointers per game this season while shooting 54.8 percent from the field and 47.9 percent on three-point field goals.

Since taking his talents to Spokane, Wiltjer has developed an effective post game to compliment his prolific outside shooting.There's almost nowhere on the floor the Oregon native can't score from. Gonzaga head coach Mark Few told Grantland's Jordan Ritter Conn for a piece profiling the resurrection of Wiltjer:

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"He’s always had a post game. When he decided to come here, John [Calipari] called me and told me, ‘The thing no one knows is that he’s a really great post scorer.’ They just never needed him to do that when he was at Kentucky.” The skills were there, but the basic physical strength needed to hold his ground on the block, to absorb contact, to finish over an athletic defender — all of that was missing.

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Wiltjer doesn’t exactly get where he wants to in a hurry, but he gets there all the same, and when he does it almost always results in a positive play for the Zags.

With Gonzaga, the former 5-star recruit in 247Sports' ratings is the focal point of the opposing defense anytime he’s on the floor. Facing constant double- and even triple-teams all year, Wiltjer still managed to score 20 or more points in 36.1 percent of Gonzaga’s games.

Wiltjer will need to play at an even higher level against one of the best defensive teams in college basketball history. There is a comparable here, though, as Wiltjer faced a similarly stifling, athletic Arizona team earlier this year.

Wiltjer had a game-high 15 points on 6-of-16 shooting in the Zag’s 66-63 overtime loss. The shooting numbers don’t look great, but Wiltjer was 5-of-10 from inside the arc and managed not to turn the ball over once against the No. 3 defense in nation, according to Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defense rating.

Against Kentucky, Wiltjer is going to see defenders every bit as aggressive and athletic as Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Stanley Johnson. Few is going to need his other players to execute to perfection in order to get his star good early looks, but as the game drags on Wiltjer is going to need to do what stars do: make difficult shots.

He’s proved capable all year, and he might just be playing his best basketball of the season (47 PTS, 18-24 FG, 6-9 3PT in the NCAA tournament) at the best time for it.

No one has an easy go against Calipari’s defense. According to Sports-Reference.com, only eight players have scored 20 or more against Kentucky this season, and only three of those games were close. But Wiltjer has the pedigree, the skill and the passion to go up against everything Coach Cal can throw at him.

Wiltjer will need to be the dominant Zag in this one, but he won't be able to do it without some help from his friends.

The Best Backcourt in Gonzaga History?

If it feels like Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell have been at Gonzaga forever, that’s because they have.

Pangos (140) and Bell (133) have combined to play in 273 games at Gonzaga, 121 more than Kentucky’s all-Harrison starting backcourt. There’s almost nothing these two haven’t seen in their four years under Few.

Except, that is, a Sweet 16 appearance. Their last season together marks the first time Pangos and Bell have survived the round of 32.

Taken separately, Bell and Pangos couldn’t be more different.

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Pangos is an offensive-minded point guard with pretty hair and an even prettier jumper. Bell is a physical defender, one of the best on the perimeter in all of college basketball.

But together, the 2015 WCC Player of the Year and 2015 WCC Defensive Player of the Year form the perfect complementary guard tandem. Together, they have fueled Gonzaga’s run to glory in the hopes of fulfilling a freshman year pledge made to each other—become the best backcourt in school history.

In their four seasons together, Bell and Pangos are 121-19, but all they’re focused on now is the four possible games ahead of them.

Should they make it to the national championship game with Kentucky, Bell and Pangos, like most every other backcourt in the nation, will be at a supreme size disadvantage against the 6’6” Harrison twins. Even when the Harrison twins are out, Pangos and Bell still have to chase around the minute freshman sensation that is Tyler Ulis.

Young Kwak/Associated Press

Bell is strong enough, smart enough and athletic enough to stick with either Harrison despite giving up four inches to each. Like all defensive-minded stalwarts, Bell takes pride in the lockdown, but there’s an offensive prowess hidden beneath his rugged D.

“He takes it personally if you score on him,” Few told the Seattle Times's Jerry Brewer. “He’s really a great defender, but he has the full package. If he were on a lot of other teams in the country, he’d be a go-to offensive player.”

The issue against a team like Kentucky will lie with 6’2” Pangos, who had issues against an athletic Arizona team back in December. But even with Pangos stifled offensively (8 PTS, 6 AST, 4 TO) and overmatched defensively, the Bulldogs nearly waltzed into the McKale Center in Tucson and defeated a team that hasn’t lost at home in over two seasons.

Kentucky has enough backcourt weapons that it could cause matchup problems even for some of the more dreadful NBA teams. But if Pangos can keep the offense fluid and find those fleeting slivers of daylight against the Wildcats, his hot shooting (8-16 3PT in NCAA tournament) could prove to be a deciding factor an a Gonzaga upset.

Still, defense is always going to be a crux for Pangos. Luckily for the Canadian, he has two enormous Eastern Europeans prowling the paint behind him.

To go through Gonzaga, you must go through them.

The European Union

One is the son of a Hall of Fame legend whose past European exploits are spoken of with both reverence and a bit of mysticism. 

The other stands over 7 feet tall and seems ripped right from the pages of some ancient Slavic mythology.

You’re not going to beat Kentucky playing Calipari’s game, but sometimes, fire needs to be fought with more fire.

Domantas Sabonis and Przemek Karnowski are Few’s fire.

Kentucky’s front line is as intimidating as has ever seen in college basketball: 6’10” Trey Lyles, 6’11” Karl-Anthony Towns and 7’0” Willie Cauley-Stein have turned the paint into their own personal domain of decimation. And even if one of them should falter, Calipari can bring 7-footer Dakari Johnson, 6’9” Marcus Lee or 6’9” Derek Willis in as a stopgap.

With the way Calipari employs line changes, it can feel as if Kentucky has a never-ending militia of monsters designed to do one thing: stop you from scoring.

The Wildcats are the best defensive team in the nation, per KenPom (and per every single eye test). Towns and Stein combine for 4.1 blocks per game, and as a team Kentucky averages 6.9 per game, good for second in the nation. Opponents shoot an anemic 35.1 percent against the Wildcats. Offense goes to die here. 

Conversely, Gonzaga might possess the best offense in the nation.

The Bulldogs' 120.4 adjusted offensive rating ranked fourth in the nation this season, per KenPom. The Zags averaged a Division I best 1.45 points per possession during the regular season, which is actually up to 1.57 during their two NCAA tournament games, per ESPN's advanced statistics. The Zags' 58.9 percent effective field-goal percentage also led the nation.

On the surface, it appears like this confrontation would boil down to a duel between Gonzaga’s beautiful offensive ballet and Kentucky’s relentless, barbaric defense. But the Bulldogs have bruisers of their own.

For most teams battling the Wildcats, the offensive paint is a no-fly zone. But with three legitimate bigs in Wiltjer, Sabonis and Karnowski, Gonzaga can contend in the paint with Kentucky in a way no other team in college basketball can.

The continued improvement and rebounding prowess displayed by Sabonis is one of the biggest reasons why the Bulldogs can threaten the Wildcats.

The 18-year-old Lithuanian is a hound under the glass on both ends of the court. He can scowl, sneer and strong-arm his way to double-digit rebounds on any given night against any given opponent. Sabonis’ 19.3 percent total rebound percentage ranks 23rd in the nation and fifth among all freshman, per Sports-Reference.com. 

Karnowski's rebounding totals have slipped a bit in his junior season, but that’s more the fault of Sabonis than any skill regression on the hulking Polish center’s part.

Few’s big men are more than paint clogs and rebounding specialists, though. Sabonis has already displayed an advanced post skill set for a player at this level, reflected in his 67.5 percent (on 5.6 shots) field-goal percentage. A lot of those buckets come from pure hard work on the offensive glass, but his father most definitely taught his son a thing or two growing up. 

Karnowski isn’t as nimble as Sabonis around the basket—which is to be expected, given his nearly 300-pound frame—but he has no problem wearing down and overpowering whomever draws his assignment. He's an able passer and has shown some craftiness in that facet of the game from time to time. The way Kentucky defends, the Gonzaga bigs will need to make quick, sharp passes to avoid critical turnovers that might lead to fast-break buckets. 

One of Kentucky’s greatest assets is its fear factor. Against most teams, they have an edge before ever taking the court.

That won’t be an issue against Sabonis and Karnowski, who embrace contact and fear no man on the hardwood.

Cincinatti was able to slow Kentucky down and play a physical style that threw off many of the things Calipari and the Wildcats normally do best. Even so, Kentucky won by 13.

It's going to take a perfect effort from Gonzaga, especially from the bigs, to vanquish the perfect foe.

But if Sabonis and Karnowski are able to ruffle the feathers of Cauley-Stein and Towns and draw them into foul trouble, the Bulldogs will have a legitimate shot at upsetting one of the most dominant college basketball teams in recent memory. 

See You in Indy

On Nov. 14, 2014, Kentucky opened its season with an 85-45 win over Grand Canyon—since then, every single school in the Wildcats’ path has met the same fate as those hapless Antelopes.

For 36 games, John Calipari’s team has found a way to win. For 36 games, every run has been stopped, every enemy uprising has been quelled.

Gonzaga stands as the best chance against the undefeated, so it’s only fitting that this matchup would come in the national title game, though, neither team has an easy road there.

Gonzaga has an athletic, confident UCLA team in the Sweet 16, then a pairing with either top-seeded Duke or No. 5 seed Utah in the Elite Eight. The top two seeds in the East Region are gone, so should Gonzaga make it to the Final Four, it has a genuine chance of reaching its first national title game. 

Kentucky still has top-seeded Wisconsin, No. 2 seed Arizona and No. 3 seed Notre Dame on its side of the bracket. Those other Wildcats appear to pose the biggest threat to Kentucky becoming one of the final two teams standing, but no one should expect Coach Cal’s team to fall before the title game.

Each team will continue the march forward, moving inexorably closer to their meeting to decide whether Kentucky can defy the basketball gods and complete an unbeaten season.

For those with no faith, just remember, every Achilles has his arrow. The basketball world will just have to wait and see if these Gonzaga Bulldogs are Kentucky's.