March Madness 2015: Bracket Predictions, Odds for Thursday's Sweet 16 Schedule

After the brief four-day sabbatical to catch your breath, the NCAA tournament returns with a slate of four games on Thursday that offer no shortage of storylines and possibilities. All that can be said with certainty after this weekend is the Final Four will be set. 

Yet, after a dramatic first day of action that featured five games decided by one point and two No. 14 seeds pulling off big upsets, the tournament has been chalk-heavy. Even if you want to say Villanova and Virginia losing is notable, they lost to two under-seeded teams in North Carolina State and Michigan State. 

Plus, given Tom Izzo's history in March, it's hard to say anytime the Spartans win that it qualifies as an upset. Still, looking at what's on tap for the first day of Sweet 16 games, there's an unsettling feeling lurking beneath the surface for some of these favorites. 

Here's the schedule for Thursday's games, as well as updated point spreads and predictions for the first batch of Sweet 16 contests. 

Matchup	Spread	Pick
No. 7 Wichita State vs. No. 3 Notre Dame	Wichita State (-2)	Notre Dame, 67-63
No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 1 Wisconsin	Wisconsin (-6.5)	Wisconsin, 71-61
No. 5 West Virginia vs. No. 1 Kentucky	Kentucky (-13.5)	Kentucky, 74-63
No. 6 Xavier vs. No. 2 Arizona	Arizona (-10.5)	Arizona, 75-68

Preview 

Looking over the odds, what immediately jumps out is Wichita State getting a slight edge over Notre Dame. It's amazing how the first weekend of tournament action can alter perceptions, which isn't to say the Shockers are out of their element. 

Before the NCAA tournament started, Notre Dame was the one team in the Midwest Region considered to have a shot at beating Kentucky because the Irish can shoot. There have been lapses in the Big Dance thus far, with Mike Brey's team falling asleep on defense. 

Jerry Sullivan of The Buffalo News tweeted out everything that sums up Notre Dame's run so far during the game against Northeastern:

Yet we tend to focus so much on negatives that it's easy to forget the positives. When Notre Dame needed a big defensive play against Butler, Pat Connaughton swatted away a three-point attempt by Kellen Dunham to send the game to overtime. 

When Notre Dame needed to create a play on offense in overtime, Connaughton was there to hit a three-pointer and Jerian Grant exploded to the basket for a layup. This isn't a perfect team by any stretch, but you don't need style points to win in the tournament. 

Wichita State is everyone's favorite darling, yet the Shockers struggled for a long time against Indiana and finished just 2-of-13 from three-point range. Things looked better against Kansas, shooting 49 percent overall and reminding the world what makes this team special. 

But there's no denying that Jayhawks team clearly wasn't the one it was supposed to be. Wayne Selden was an invisible man who might as well not have even played. It's worth asking just how much of what happened was great play by Wichita State and how much was a lost Kansas team ready to be done?

Then again, per ESPN Stats & Info, Wichita State has a knack for doing strange things in the NCAA tournament:

I can't say definitively that Notre Dame is a better team than Wichita State, but I do think the raw talent for the Irish gives them an edge in those crucial final minutes that will push them over the top in what figures to be a great, entertaining game. 

The other games on Thursday don't look nearly as appealing. North Carolina vs. Wisconsin lost some luster when Roy Williams said he's not expecting Kennedy Meeks to play, via Bret Strelow of The Fayetteville Observer:

The Tar Heels can score a lot of points, but this isn't a defense that's going to contain a roster of talented and smart players like Frank Kaminsky, Nigel Hayes and Sam Dekker who don't make mistakes or force bad shots. 

West Virginia and Kentucky is picking up steam, thanks in part to comments from Mountaineers guard Daxter Miles, via Brett Dawson of Rivals:

There are also some analysts expecting Bob Huggins' full-court press to end Kentucky's dreams of perfection, according to Zac Jackson of Fox Sports Ohio:

"

The Mountaineers aren't a great shooting team but they don't mind going fast; they average 74 points per game and also rank in the top 60 nationally in rebounds and assists per game. The most impressive numbers are on the defensive side, where the Mountaineers lead the nation in steals and know they'll need to convert steals into scoring chances to have a chance to topple Kentucky.

"

The first part is where West Virginia falls short in its quest for an upset. I understand how well the Mountaineers rebound, but their shooting percentage of 41.2 ranked 282nd in the nation (h/t ESPN). That's not going to work against the best defensive team in the country. 

Even though it's fitting to pick a flavor of the month to knock off the juggernaut, but West Virginia doesn't look or feel like the kind of team that's going to give Kentucky enough problems for 40 minutes to pull off the upset. 

Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

Arizona has looked like the most complete team in the tournament. Sean Miller's defense took a legitimate top NBA prospect in D'Angelo Russell and held him to 3-of-19 shooting because they are so long and athletic with players like Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Stanley Johnson. 

More impressive is Arizona shot 36.5 percent from the floor against Ohio State, yet still won the game by 15 points. Xavier got a good draw with a Mississippi team that had to exhaust its tank against BYU and Georgia State in the Round of 32. 

Once again, chalk will reign supreme in the 2015 NCAA tournament. It doesn't make for compelling drama on the outside, but sometimes the draw works out that way.