Derek Carr Flashed Enough Potential to Lead the Raiders in 2015

The Oakland Raiders may have a franchise quarterback in Derek Carr, but it’s too early to anoint him after an up-and-down rookie season. It’s also far too early to give up on Carr, as the Raiders did a poor job surrounding him with talent.

Carr flashed enough potential to lead the Raiders in 2015, but anything beyond that will depend on his performance. That’s not only fair, but it acknowledges the reality of the situation on both sides.

Certain red flags exist in Carr’s game, which is why a recent ESPN Insider article suggested the Raiders should draft Marcus Mariota in 2015. Some of Carr’s rookie stats were ugly, so much so that if he improves beyond that of an average quarterback, he’ll be the exception and not the rule.

To argue for Carr is to argue that his rookie season really was an exception, which fortunately for the Raiders is actually easy to do. Many point to Carr’s 5.26 yards per attempt but ignore some of the main reasons why it was so low.

The Raiders had no running game. They averaged a league-low 77.5 yards per game, scored just four rushing touchdowns and averaged 3.68 yards per carry. Until they turned to Latavius Murray late in the year, it was even uglier than that.

Team	Year	Wins	ATT	YDS	YDS/ATT	TD	QB	Pass TD	INT
OAK	2014	3	337	1240	3.68	4	Carr	21	12
ARI	2005	5	360	1138	3.16	2	McCown/Warner	21	21
IND	1991	1	354	1169	3.3	3	George	10	12

Since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule, only two teams have been worse on the ground in all three categories. The 2005 Arizona Cardinals and the 1991 Indianapolis Colts managed the feat, and their quarterbacks likewise struggled.  

In Arizona, Kurt Warner and Josh McCown combined for 21 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. In Indy, sophomore quarterback Jeff George threw 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. By contrast, Carr’s 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions look pretty darn good.

Of the rookie quarterbacks since the merger to finish with fewer than 6.0 yards per attempt on 300 or more attempts, Carr has the highest net-adjusted yards-per-pass attempt, which gives weight to touchdowns, interceptions and sacks. It’s not where you would want it to be for a franchise quarterback, but it is suggestive that he is better than his yards per attempt might indicate.  

Player	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sack %	Y/A	ANY/A
Derek Carr	348	599	58.1	3270	21	12	3.85%	5.46	4.82
Sam Bradford	354	590	60	3512	18	15	5.45%	5.95	4.73
Drew Bledsoe	214	429	49.88	2494	15	15	3.60%	5.81	4.54
Joey Harrington	215	429	50.12	2294	12	16	1.83%	5.35	3.98
Rick Mirer	274	486	56.38	2833	12	17	8.82%	5.83	3.89

The Raiders also protected Carr to a fault. They were conservative, and they asked Carr not to take sacks. He finished the season as one of the five least sacked quarterbacks in the league in terms of sacks per dropback, but it wasn’t necessarily because the offense line was doing a great job protecting him.

Oakland’s offensive coordinator last year, Greg Olson, asked Carr to get the ball out quickly, even on deep balls. Opposing defenses also knew the Raiders were passing a lot due to the poor running game and defense, something new head coach Jack Del Rio wants to correct in 2015.

"I thought it was all about Derek (Carr) last year,” Del Rio said at the owners meetings, via Vic Tafur of the San Francisco Chronicle. “I want to be able to run the ball, play good defense."

Name	Rec.	YAC	YAC / Rec. (NFL Rank)	TD
Kenbrell Thompkins	15	71	4.7 (48)	0
Andre Holmes	47	195	4.1 (64)	4
Brice Butler	21	83	4 (67)	2
James Jones	73	215	2.9 (94)	6

The Raiders also didn’t have a receiver last year that could make something happen after the catch, so even when Carr did complete short passes, his receivers didn’t exactly help him out. Carr’s inability to complete deep passes hurt him, and Olson dialed them up with regularity despite an otherwise conservative game plan to protect Carr.

Out of 71 attempts over 20 yards, Carr completed just 15, per Pro Football Focus. Completion percentage on deep passes isn’t high as it is, but it varies from year to year. Carr’s deep completion percentage could very easily improve in 2015 as it moves toward the mean.

Joe Flacco’s completed just 26.1 percent of his 88 deep attempts in 2013, but he completed half of his 56 deep attempts in 2014. Matt Ryan completed just 30 percent of his 60 deep attempts in 2011 but followed that up by completing 43.3 percent of his 67 attempts in 2012.

Player	2014	2013	2012	2011
Derek Carr	23.9%	-	-	-
Joe Flacco	50%	26.1%	40.2%	34.2%
Matt Ryan	56.5%	39.5%	43.3%	30%

Stats aside, when you put on the film for Carr, you see a quarterback that has flashed the ability to be a franchise quarterback. Mike Mayock of NFL.com outlines some of the many positive things Carr did against San Diego in Week 6. Andy Benoit of SI.com highlighted others from the Raiders win over the Chiefs in Week 12.

Mark Kelso of BuffaloBills.com reviewed the film of Carr prior to the Buffalo Bills loss to the Raiders in Week 16 and demonstrated some of the many things he does well for a young quarterback. Carr may have struggled with consistency in 2014, but he flashed enough to get a chance to develop with a better supporting cast.

"If we do things around him, he really has a chance to flourish,” Del Rio told Tafur. “He is really accurate. He has a huge upside."

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid seems to agree, and he is a quarterback whisperer of sorts. When discussing Carr at the owners meetings, he praised Carr without resorting to hyperbole.

"Jack (Del Rio’s) got a good situation,” Reid told Terez A. Paylor of The Kansas City Star. “That kid can play. Like, really play."

Maybe Carr never develops the consistency he needs to play at a high level in the NFL, but he’s flashed enough potential to get that chance. Until he proves definitively that he can’t get the job done, he’s no more of a risk than Mariota.

In the meantime, the Raiders have to be excited about what they have if they can surround him with enough talent. They really haven’t been able to put a lot around him this offseason, but the upcoming draft will be their best opportunity yet to give him a true playmaker. 

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Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference and Pro Football Focus (subscription required).