NASCAR at Martinsville 2015: Complete Preview and Prediction for the STP 500
This Sunday’s STP 500 at Martinsville Speedway could end up with a surprising finish.
Because of all the beating and banging that goes on, it’s hard to pick a favorite. Sure, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson have won eight times each at the 0.526-mile southern Virginia bull ring, which has hosted NASCAR races since 1949.
But this could also be a breakout race for a number of other drivers, which leads back to my comment that Sunday’s race could end up with a surprise finish and surprise winner.
How surprising? Might we see Danica Patrick wind up with a top-five finish? Could this be the race that Kyle Larson finally earns his first career Sprint Cup race?
One thing is for sure: There’s going to be a lot of action, a lot of excitement, a lot of drama—and a lot of beat-in fenders and front and rear ends.
Racing at Martinsville is part demolition derby and part anger-management therapy, where the beating and banging is almost as exciting as who ultimately survives the 500 laps around it.
By the Numbers: Martinsville Speedway
1 of 6
STP 500
Place: Martinsville Speedway
Date: Sunday, March 29
Time: 1 p.m. (ET)
TV: Fox Sports 1
Radio: Motor Racing Network, Sirius XM Ch. 90
Distance: 500 laps, 263 miles
Defending race winner: Kurt Busch
Youngest Martinsville winner: Richard Petty (April 10, 1960—22 years, 9 months, 8 days)
Oldest Martinsville winner: Harry Gant (Sept. 22, 1991—51 years, 8 months, 12 days)
Defending pole winner: Kyle Busch (99.674 mph, March 28, 2014)
Youngest Martinsville pole winner: Kyle Busch (Feb. 27, 2005—19 years, 9 months, 25 days)
Oldest Martinsville pole winner: Ricky Rudd (April 26, 1981—24 years, 7 months, 14 days)
Track notes
- 58 drivers have won poles at Martinsville, led by Darrell Waltrip with eight poles and Jeff Gordon with seven.
- Race record: Jeff Gordon (82.223 mph, Sept. 22, 1996)
- Qualifying record: Jamie McMurray (99.905 mph, Oct. 26, 2014)
- There have been 132 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Martinsville Speedway, dating back to 1949.
- 48 different drivers have won at Martinsville Speedway, led by Richard Petty with 15 victories.
- Richard Petty has the most top-five finishes (30) at Martinsville (in 67 starts).
- Richard Petty has the most top-10 finishes (37) at Martinsville (in 67 starts).
Statistics courtesy NASCAR weekly event-update book.
Key Storylines (STP 500)
2 of 6
Can Kurt Busch defend last year’s win at Martinsville? After coming so close to winning this past Sunday at Fontana, don’t be surprised if Kurt Busch is a man on a mission to successfully defend last spring’s win at Martinsville.
I can’t recall when Busch looked more determined and focused as he did in his last two races (finished fifth and third, respectively). The last debris caution at Fontana all but stole the win from him and handed it to Brad Keselowski. Kurt wants that win back and will do all he can to get it Sunday.
Who is the first to get to nine wins at Martinsville, Jimmie Johnson or Jeff Gordon? Johnson and Gordon both have eight career wins at Martinsville, the most among active drivers. The gritty little southern Virginia short track has seen some great races from both drivers, as well as more than a few where they primarily battled each other for the win.
If I had to pick, I say Gordon gets No. 9 before Johnson does, either this Sunday or the Chase race in the fall.
Can Dale Earnhardt Jr. make it two wins in a row at Martinsville? Dale Jr. finally was able to check off one big thing on his bucket list, winning for the first time in his career there last fall in the Chase race. He always wanted one of Martinsville’s exclusive grandfather clocks that are awarded to race winners, and now he finally has one. Can he win a second clock this Sunday?
Could Martinsville be the track where Tony Stewart finally breaks his 2015 slump? Tony Stewart is off to the worst start of his Sprint Cup career. He currently sits in 32nd position in the Sprint Cup standings, a massive 163 points behind series leader and Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Kevin Harvick.
Stewart has earned just 62 points this season, while teammate Kurt Busch is now in 28th place, 20 points ahead of Stewart—and with three fewer starts.
Can Kevin Harvick make it nine top-two finishes in a row? Kevin Harvick has four wins and four runner-up finishes in his last eight starts (dating back to the last three races of 2014). He’s three top-two finishes away from tying Richard Petty’s mark of 11 consecutive top-two finishes, set in 1975.
Attaining such a lofty mark should in theory get harder with each subsequent start, but Harvick has shown no signs of slowing down. He has one win, three top-five and 12 top-10 finishes in 27 career starts at Martinsville. Having finished second at Fontana this past Sunday following back-to-back wins in the two races before that, Harvick is primed to get back to Victory Lane once again.
Drivers to Watch
3 of 6
Martin Truex Jr.: Off to the best start of his Sprint Cup career, Truex could be in the right place at the right time to earn his third career Sprint Cup victory this Sunday at Martinsville. Truex has proven he and Furniture Row Racing are for real, and it’s just a matter of when (not if) he drives the No. 78 Chevrolet into Victory Lane.
Denny Hamlin: Even though he reached the final four in the championship round of last year’s Chase, Denny Hamlin just hasn’t driven like the Hamlin of old over the last three seasons. He needs a big breakout win, and Sunday at Martinsville could give him that opportunity. After all, he’s a four-time winner there, including three in a row from fall 2009 through fall 2010. What’s more, it would be Toyota’s first win in nearly a year.
Matt Kenseth: Had it not been for a late-race broken axle, Kenseth appeared headed to victory last Sunday’s race at Fontana. The driver of the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota is hungry to snap a winless streak that has reached 49 consecutive races without a visit to Victory Lane, dating back to the last eight races of the 2013 season.
It was also in 2013 that Kenseth won a single-season career-high seven wins. After coming so close to and tasting potential victory at Fontana, Kenseth will be hungry as a wolf to win his first Sprint Cup race at Martinsville.
Ryan Newman: The last time Ryan Newman won a Sprint Cup race was the 2013 Brickyard 400. He’s been knocking on victory’s door this season, with three top-five finishes and one other top-10 showing in the first five races. He’s gone 57 races without a win; the last thing he likely wants to do is reach 58 races without a win.
Danica Patrick: While others believe Patrick will ultimately get her first career Sprint Cup win on a superspeedway, I’m of the complete opposite mindset. I keep thinking that when she wins her first Cup race, it’ll be at a short track such as Martinsville, Bristol, Phoenix or New Hampshire.
While the results haven’t necessarily shown it, Patrick has appeared to be more competitive in the first five races of 2015. If she’s in the right place at the right time at Martinsville, especially if she makes a late-race caution work in her favor, like I said in the opening slide of this exercise, it would not surprise me to see her standing in Victory Lane.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Favorites
4 of 6
Kevin Harvick: With the kind of streak he currently has going, with eight consecutive top-two finishes in as many races, you have to keep Harvick as a favorite until that streak comes to an end.
Jimmie Johnson: Johnson loves racing at Martinsville and would love nothing better than to regain bragging rights as the best driver there over teammate Jeff Gordon.
Jeff Gordon: Gordon is tied with Johnson with eight wins apiece at Martinsville. That track has meant so much to Gordon and his career that if there’s any track he would like to earn one more victory at in his final season as a Sprint Cup driver, it’s Martinsville.
Kurt Busch: Having come so close at Fontana (finished third after dominating the race), the elder Busch brother is as hungry for a win at Martinsville as a dog is seeking a piece of bloody meat. The combination of what happened to him at Fontana, along with being defending winner of this race, makes Busch perhaps the most motivated driver on the track this weekend.
Joey Logano: Short tracks are where Joey Logano cut his teeth as a race car driver and continue to be the type of tracks he excels at. For example, of Logano’s nine career Sprint Cup wins, four have been at tracks of one mile or less. While he’s never won at Martinsville, given the season he’s having—including winning the Daytona 500—Logano has as good a chance of winning Sunday as anyone.
Dark-Horse Pick: Kyle Larson
5 of 6
Ever since he debuted on the Sprint Cup scene last year, I’ve been saying it’s just a matter of time before Kyle Larson wins his first race.
Sunday at Martinsville could potentially be that place. He’s built his overall racing career primarily on short-track success.
Granted, much of that success has been on dirt tracks, but there’s no reason why Larson can’t translate that same kind of effort and performance to a short asphalt track like Martinsville.
Larson loves to muscle his race car around tracks, and even if he bounces off the wall several times in the process, he’s fine with that.
And that’s one of the best parts about Martinsville: Typically you don’t suffer serious damage if you bounce off the wall a few (or more) times, providing it’s you doing the bouncing and not someone else pile-driving into you.
If someone such as Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson or Kurt Busch doesn’t win Sunday, I couldn’t think of a better place for Larson to get his first win than at Martinsville.
And the Winner Is: Kurt Busch
6 of 6
Three words best describe Kurt Busch going into this weekend at Martinsville: motivated, determined and focused.
If you haven’t noticed, Busch hasn’t smiled much in his first two races back from a NASCAR-imposed three-race suspension to start this season.
While he may still be angry at the sanctioning body for his suspension, Busch hasn't been as focused and deep-down motivated as he's been in the last two races.
Ergo, his lack of smiles.
He is likely bound and determined to not only put the suspension and all the resulting situation with ex-girlfriend Patricia Driscoll behind him, but to also ultimately win another championship. Perhaps the only way he’ll ever smile again is when he finally wins a race.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
