Why NC State Basketball Is the Underdog with the Best Shot to Reach the Final 4

The NCAA tournament field has been cut down to just 16 teams, and NC State basketball is just about the weakest one left. That is, if you're judging by seed. Despite long odds, the No. 8 Wolfpack stand the best chance of all the remaining lower seeds to make it out of the regional semifinal round and into the Final Four.

Let's start with a few things that have nothing to do with NC State but still play in its favor. Undefeated Kentucky is the clear favorite to win the Midwest Region, as well as the national title. Also, no team in the West is seeded lower than the Wolfpack.

In the South, No. 11 UCLA is the only remaining team seeded lower than NC State. The Bruins must face white-hot Gonzaga on Friday and, if they win, likely No. 1 Duke in the regional final. It's a difficult road.

NC State's path to the Final Four in Indianapolis, while perilous, appears more manageable. The Wolfpack won six of their last eight games just to make it to the Big Dance, and they used that momentum to slay LSU and top-seeded Villanova.

When they lock up with Louisville Friday in Syracuse, they will have the confidence that comes with already having won key games, including a victory on the road over this very same Louisville team on Valentine's Day.

Oklahoma and Michigan State, the two teams playing in the other semifinal in the East, are both hot right now, too, but neither holds a particular talent advantage over the Wolfpack.

But let's not look too far ahead. NC State will have its hands full with Louisville Friday. The Wolfpack are three-point underdogs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com, and despite how well they've been playing lately, there's a convincing reason for it: Louisville Coach Rick Pitino is 11-1 in the Sweet 16.

That and the Wolfpack's uneven play earlier this season are cause for concern. They've had signature wins against the likes of Duke and North Carolina, but they've also had burn-the-film losses to Wofford, Wake Forest and Cincinnati.

Anthony "Cat" Barber is NC State's physical and emotional leader, and Dana O'Neil of ESPN says a correlation exists between Barber bouncing back from the grief of the shooting death of his childhood friend and the surge the Wolfpack have been on of late.

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The sophomore point guard embodies the personality of this NC State team. He's a one-time top-flight recruit who has somehow managed to hold tight to his hunger, and the Wolfpack are a proud program loaded with talent that still believes it has something to prove.

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That hunger doesn't just fuel winning. After NC State upset Villanova, Barber was caught on television asking a profane question about the president of the United States. Nick Schwartz of USA Today highlights Barber's unsavory comment—which NC State Coach Mark Gottfried seems to celebrate rather than rebuke—as well as his pseudo-apology that came later.

NC State certainly reaps the benefits when Barber is channeling his passion in productive ways. In the last 12 games, he is averaging 15.1 points, 4.1 assists and only 2.3 turnovers, despite playing a grueling 34 minutes per game. The Wolfpack are 8-4 in that span.

NC State is hoping to repeat its previous win over Louisville Friday. Barber, Ralston Turner and Trevor Lacey combined for 45 points in that victory.

Karl B DeBlaker/Associated Press

Louisville, meantime, seems to have found a bit of a scoring rhythm. The Cardinals shot just under 46 percent from the field in their win against Northern Iowa, a brilliant offensive performance by most any standard and something NC State will have to have answers for.

How will the Wolfpack neutralize the outside threat of guard Wayne Blackshear as well as the physical post presence of Terry Rozier and Montrezl Harrell, the team's leading scorers and rebounders?

Throw out the records and the seeding in this wide-open East Region. NC State matches up with every team left in its region. If they limit their turnovers, the Wolfpack will reach the Final Four for the first time since winning the national title in 1983.