Duke Basketball: Impressions from the Postseason so Far

Duke cruised through its first two games of the NCAA tournament and is headed to the Sweet 16. The Devils defeated Robert Morris 85-56 before taking down San Diego State 68-49 and will now play fifth-seeded Utah.

Although they won both games comfortably, the Blue Devils played lackadaisically at times in both contests, allowing Robert Morris to cut the lead to 10 midway through the second half and SDSU to cut it to 7 at around the same time. Just when Duke was looking vulnerable, Justise Winslow took over both games and Duke was able to get back to comfortable leads. In leading Duke to victory, Winslow earned a trip back to his hometown of Houston where the South Regional semifinals and finals will be held.

Appearances in the Sweet 16 used to be more of a right than a privilege at Duke. From 1998 to 2006 the program reached nine straight regional semifinals, until Eric Maynor and Virginia Commonwealth University knocked them out in the first round of 2007.

Starting with the loss to VCU, Duke has made it out of the opening weekend only four of the past eight tournaments, losing in the first game two of the past three seasons. That slump is softened a bit by the 2010 championship run, but making it past this weekend was critical for Duke to avoid being hit with the “tournament choker” label that teams like Kansas and Villanova are currently dealing with.

Everyone from fans to coaches to players are gearing up for the Friday night showdown with the University of Utah’s Utes, but there are some important lessons to take away from Duke’s performance so far in the tournament.

Tyus Jones Has Not Had to Take Over....Yet

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Normally starting a freshman point guard would be looked upon as a hindrance to a team’s potential for a deep run in the Big Dance. Normally that freshman scoring just 16 points over the first two tournament games would be a major cause for concern for his team going forward. As we have seen time and time again this year, Tyus Jones is not normal.

Known for taking over in the biggest moments of the biggest games, Jones has been content to play the quiet distributor so far in the tournament. He had 13 assists and just three turnovers combined in the two games and took only 16 shots. Jones has been keeping his Clark Kent routine going all year in games when Duke is winning handily and will continue to do so until the team finds itself in a close contest.

As the games get tougher, look for Jones to become more and more aggressive in scoring. With the season he has had, it would be of little surprise if he has at least one huge moment for Duke in the tournament. If Utah, with its stingy defense and stud guard Delon Wright, is able to give the Devils problems, look for Jones to step up big time. If Duke gets out to an early lead and handles Utah easily, Jones will continue to quietly run the offense and look to be mainly a distributor.

Justise Winslow Can Do Everything

Amid all the hoopla of Jahlil Okafor’s impressive post moves, Tyus Jones’s clutch play and Quinn Cook’s shooting and leadership, it is becoming more and more evident that Winslow is Duke’s best and most important player.  Over the weekend, Winslow was doing his impression of the "Most Lethal Swiss Army Knife in the World."

Winslow went for six points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists against Robert Morris and followed that up with 13-12-5 against SDSU. His ability to grab defensive rebounds and go coast-to-coast for layups creates easy buckets when Duke is slumping on offense. His offense is great, but his defensive abilities stand out on a team that sometimes struggles to get stops. Winslow had highlight blocks in both games and recorded four blocks and four steals in the contests.

None of the four remaining teams in the South Regional (Gonzaga and UCLA in addition to Utah) has a player with anywhere near the combination of size and athleticism of Winslow. He will need to continue to be the best player on the court for Duke to advance to the Elite Eight and beyond. If he fails to be aggressive on both ends, Duke’s season could be over very soon.

Offensive Firepower Is Necessary in Defeating Duke

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SDSU was a defensive-minded team all season that won games by slowing them down and grinding opponents into submission. It was able to keep the tempo down against the Devils but lacked the scorers to keep up.

Through the duration of the season, Duke has proved to be almost impossible to shut down for an entire game. Virginia shut it down for the most part, but a hot streak at the end carried Duke to victory. Even if a team is able to play at a tortoise-like pace, it will need a couple players who can keep up with Duke’s inevitable run of buckets.

According to kenpom.com, SDSU was the fourth-most efficient defensive team in the country but only 167th in offense. Utah also likes to slow it down but is a much more balanced group, ranking of seventh in defense and 18th in offense. In addition to their solid statistics, the Utes have Wright, who is capable of taking over games at any time. Wright is 6’5”, giving him an advantage over Duke’s diminutive guards Jones and Cook. 

Duke was able to win easily playing at SDSU’s pace due to its lack of scoring, but it may need to force Utah into an uptempo game in order to be victorious. Despite its high efficiency rankings, however, Utah is just 59th in the country with 72.1 points  per game. This will be another game of mismatched styles for the Devils. If they can turn it into a speedy shootout, they should win comfortably.

Duke Will Ride Its Starters Heavy Minutes

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Coach K balanced his players’ playing time well in the win against Robert Morris but barely looked at the bench in the SDSU game. Each starter played at least 33 minutes against the Aztecs, and Duke got only 25 combined minutes from its bench. Keep in mind that this is a game Duke led comfortably for most of the 40 minutes.

Duke usually has a pretty short rotation, and this should continue for the rest of the tournament.

Matt Jones will be spelled at times by Grayson Allen, and Okafor will need occasional rests, but the other starters should be ready to go 40 minutes from here on out. Tyus Jones, Cook, and Winslow are too important and too irreplaceable to see the bench for anything more than a quick breather. Winslow will need to be very careful about how he uses his five fouls, as his relentless style of play has lead him into foul trouble a few times this season.

While the starters need to prepare for big minutes, the backups should be ready for the few times they are called upon. Marshall Plumlee understands his role on the team very well, Amile Jefferson has handled his benching in stride, and Allen is always ready to get a few buckets in limited minutes.

These three players could see significant time if needed or they could barely see the court at all. If Duke is to continue its run, it is likely that a situation will call for at least one of these three to play major minutes.

No One Can Stop Jah

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As Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Town is gaining momentum as the top pick in the NBA draft, Okafor is continuing to show why he has been considered the top prospect most of the season: 47 points over the two games, 21-of-27 shooting, and he even made both of his free-throws against SDSU.

Okafor has continued to score in a variety of ways, including some short jumpers he did not show very often in the regular season. While getting the ball deep in the paint is the key for most interior scorers, Okafor has been able to score even when he has the ball 18 feet away. He is so much more powerful than his defender that he can bully them all the way to the basket, where his soft touch makes tough layups look routine.

So far, teams have been unable to come up with a way to stop him, and it may take a player of Towns’ caliber to keep an individual matchup with Okafor respectable.