2015 NBA Draft: Risers and Fallers Among the Top Prospects, Sweet 16 Edition
Some of the top prospects have used the early rounds of the NCAA tournament as a platform to build their case for the 2015 NBA draft.
We've seen a couple of attention-grabbing performances—ones that could have potentially tipped the scale for previously hesitant scouts or decision-makers.
After that spectacular all-around showing against San Diego State on Sunday, I'm not sure anyone has made a stronger impression than Duke freshman Justise Winslow.
On the other hand, there have also been a handful of noteworthy names who've faded as the stakes have risen.
These are the prospects who've either helped or hurt their draft stock based on their postseason play.
Jakob Poeltl, Utah, 7'0", C, Freshman
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Stock Report: ↑
Jakob Poeltl took control of Utah's opening NCAA tournament game against Stephen F. Austin. He finished 7-of-7 for 18 points, eight rebounds and five blocks in the middle.
Poeltl was just too much around the basket, where he has a terrific blend of size, agility and instincts. Pick-and-rolls, dunks off dump downs, offensive putbacks, cuts through the lane—though not very skilled, he has a real nice feel for finishing inside off the catch.
Poeltl picked up four fouls against Georgetown in Utah's third-round win, but not before he'd make 5-of-6 shots from the floor.
Looking back, Poeltl entered the NCAA tournament on a roll, having gone for 18 points against Washington on March 7 and 16 against Stanford March 12.
He picked a good time to be playing his best ball of the year. A matchup against Duke in the Sweet 16 is ultimately a huge opportunity for Poeltl, who could potentially move the needle by keeping Jahlil Okafor in check.
Either way, it would be hard to imagine more than 15 or so general managers passing on a 7-footer this imposing and effective around the rim. Poeltl will be a solid pick for a team that can afford to wait a year or two.
Kelly Oubre, Kansas, 6'7", SF, Freshman
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Stock Report: ↓
Kansas could have really used another offensive punch from its backcourt in the Jayhawks' loss to Wichita State. Kelly Oubre just wasn't able to deliver one.
He finished 3-of-9 from the floor, and at one point, he got blatantly out-hustled and beat to a loose ball (by Zach Brown) that everyone in the building would have thought was his.
Oubre put up a dud in the Big 12 tournament as well, where he scored just three points in 17 minutes during the Jayhawks' loss to Iowa State.
He ended the year with averages of 9.3 points, five rebounds and 0.8 assists on 35.8 percent shooting from the three.
Throughout the season, he'd shown flashes stemming from his smooth athleticism, handle and shot-making ability on the perimeter. But Oubre struggles to create high-percentage looks against a set defense. And he lacks the qualities or skills of a player who ultimately makes his teammates better.
There will always be interest in versatile wings who can shoot and play above the rim.
However, Oubre didn't do a great job of selling himself as that can't-miss prospect many had thought he was out of high school. I'm not so sure he's a lock for the 2015 lottery.
Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin, 6'7", SF/PF, Sophomore
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It's been getting tough to keep ignoring Nigel Hayes, who's looked like a different player as a sophomore from more angles than one.
He's come through as Wisconsin's No. 3 weapon from the start, although he has really turned it on this postseason. Hayes scored 14 points in Wisconsin's win over Oregon Sunday and 15 against Coastal Carolina to open the NCAA tournament.
This came after his 25-point explosion in Wisconsin's win over Michigan State in the Big Ten conference tournament final.
The biggest development in Hayes' game has been his jumper, which has connected on 33 threes at a 39.3 percent clip. He didn't hit any from behind the arc last year.
But he's also shown the ability to beat his man off the bounce and get to the rim off a line drive. And he's given Wisconsin a live body under the boards and a strong finisher in the paint.
On paper, Hayes is undersized for an NBA power forward, but at 250 pounds with a massive 7'2" wingspan, he makes up for an inch or two in height with a blend of mobility, strength and length.
Hayes is just one of those efficient, mistake-free type of players, with a 61.7 percent true shooting percentage, per RealGM.com, and an average of just 1.3 turnovers in 32.9 minutes.
His upside is debatable, but Hayes' growing production and expanding offensive repertoire have landed him in the draft conversation.
Justin Anderson, Virginia, 6'6", SF, Junior
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Stock Report: ↓
Justin Anderson just hasn't been the same since returning from a broken finger. He finished 0-of-4 in Virginia's loss to North Carolina in the ACC tournament, and he shot just 2-of-7 in the loss to Michigan State that sent the Cavaliers home early from the dance.
Naturally, it would make sense to attribute the slump to rust and the fact he'd hurt his shooting hand. But Anderson had been struggling prior to going down, having hit just six of his previous 25 three-point attempts.
And quite frankly, the only reason Anderson jumped into the first-round conversation to begin with was his hot start from downtown.
Anderson doesn't do much else at the offensive end. And coming into the year, he'd shot below 31 percent from three in each of his first two seasons.
At this point, to buy into Anderson, you'd have to put a lot of stock in a fairly small sample size of three-point attempts.
There is a chance now scouts will view his two months of hot shooting as flukey. And if that's the case, Anderson could lose a number of potential first-round suitors.
Justise Winslow, Duke, 6'6", SF, Freshman
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Stock Report: ↑
Justise Winslow had one of those eye-opening games against San Diego State on Sunday that could have potentially moved the needle for evaluators who'd been on the fence.
Though he's still raw offensively, we saw his athletic ability and motor translate to all sorts of activity, from chase-down blocks to coast-to-coast finishes off defensive rebounds.
Winslow made a major impact on the game without needing the ball in his hands, a quality that ultimately drives his appeal as an NBA prospect.
Through two games in the NCAA tournament, he's even racked up 23 rebounds and 12 assists.
He's also now hit a three-pointer in 30 of 35 games played this year. And that's a pretty key development—especially when you consider his limitations as a shot creator.
"I just try to go out there and make plays," Winslow told Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chronicle after Duke's second-round win over Robert Morris. "My ability to get defensive rebounds and go coast-to-coast adds a different element to this team, and that's kind of what makes us special—our ability to play in transition and spread the court with shooters."
Winslow may need a few years to tighten up his ball skills, but he excels in areas of the game you just can't teach. And he's shown enough promise with his jumper and attack game to suggest improvement will come over time.
Expect Winslow to get realistic looks from No. 5 on down the board.
Myles Turner, Texas, 6'11", PF/C, Freshman
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Stock Report: ↓
It's been a while since Myles Turner was much of an offensive factor for Texas. He wasn't one in the Longhorns' second-round loss to Butler, having picked up two points and four fouls in 16 minutes.
Turner finished his freshman season averaging just 5.6 points over his last eight games. The last month, along with all the inconsistency that preceded it, has just been a reminder of where he's at in his developmental timetable: the early stages.
He'll need to spend the next year in the weight room working on his body, explosiveness and conditioning.
Turner isn't the threat on the interior most teams would want their big man to be. Only 23.8 percent of his total field-goal attempts came at the rim this season, per Hoop-Math.com.
It's ultimately led to some questionable shot selection. Turner took a lot of low-percentage shots for a 6'11" big man. He attempted 62 threes yet made just 17 of them.
And as DraftExpress' Derek Bodner points out, Turner posts up on roughly 40 percent of his half-court field-goal attempts, per Synergy Sports Technology. However, a "very significant portion of those, especially over his right shoulder, are turnaround jump shots out of the post," Bodner said.
At this stage, he just doesn't have a true sweet spot or go-to weapon.
Turner's ability to protect the rim—he averaged 2.6 blocks in 22.2 minutes per game—is an obvious plus. But it's going to take some time for him to find himself offensively.
Trey Lyles, Kentucky, 6'10", PF, Freshman
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Stock Report: ↑
Trey Lyles scored 10 points to open the NCAA tournament against Hampton before double-doubling against Cincinnati. And he's made a number of head-turning plays in the process that have highlighted his versatility and skill level.
On one play in the third round, Lyles faced up and attacked from the mid-range and swooped in for an effortless running lefty dunk.
He's also dished a couple of really high-IQ passes. And though not every jumper has fallen, Lyles continues to show promise with his shooting stroke in that 15-18-foot range.
Questions regarding his defensive outlook and lack of explosiveness could keep teams from reaching, but outside the top 10, Lyles is starting to look as safe as they come.
Devin Booker, Kentucky, 6'6", SG, Freshman
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Stock Report: ↓
It's not that Devin Booker's stock has plummeted—he's just been stuck in the mud, and chances are it's allowed others to pass him on draft boards.
Booker just can't seem to get it going offensively. Between both the SEC and NCAA tournaments, he's only 3-of-16 from behind the arc. And he's averaging just six points a game over Kentucky's last seven.
Booker has ultimately been heavily dependent on his jumper, having made just nine shots at the rim all year in the half court.
Considering he's not a playmaker or scorer who can get to the line (1.8 free-throw attempts per game), there's a chance Booker's declining three-point percentage could trigger hesitation from lottery general managers.
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