Key Takeaways from 1st Weekend of March Madness

March Madness. Never has an epithet for a sporting event been so fitting.

By the time the standard 5 p.m. office exodus hit the Eastern Time Zone on Thursday, millions of brackets had already been rendered moot by two No. 14 seeds (UAB and Georgia State). The rest of the weekend didn’t continue with a torrent of miraculous upsets, but the tournament certainly provided enough nail-biters and excitement to maintain its expected level of madness.

When the dust finally settled Sunday night, Kentucky was still undefeated, Duke, Gonzaga and Arizona looked like viable threats to Coach Cal’s perfect season and UCLA—the most controversial team in the NCAA tournament, with the most controversial finish in recent memory—was just two wins away from the Final Four.

So, with just 16 teams left fighting for a national title, let’s look at some of the biggest takeaways from the first three rounds of the NCAA tournament, and what it all means moving forward.

No Happily Ever After for Cinderella

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

It looked like we might be inundated with upsets on upsets on upsets this year, with No. 14 seed UAB knocking off No. 3 seed Iowa State 60-59, and No. 14 seed Georgia State breaking third-seeded Baylor’s heart 57-56 in the very first hours of the second round. Yet, despite some close calls—UNC-Harvard, Arkansas-Wofford, Louisville-UC Irvine, Maryland-Valparaiso and West Virginia-Buffalo were all decided by 6 points or fewer—the underdog couldn’t seem to find a way to burst through the tournament’s glass ceiling this year.

The only double-digit seed left is college basketball blue blood UCLA at No. 11, and the only “mid-majors” left are No. 7 seed Wichita State and No. 2 seed Gonzaga; though, at this point, neither one truly qualifies for that category.

As always, Cinderella was the belle of the ball for a few precious moments, but the overwhelming talent of the wicked stepsisters in the power conferences won out more often than not. This detracts from the fun of a Steph Curry-like run that unites fans of the little guy under one banner, but it’s likely to produce quality games between top-level talent over the final 15 tournament games.

We get a battle between West Coast basketball royalty in Gonzaga-UCLA. We get an ACC rematch between Louisville and NC State. We get Wichita State looking to make another run to the Final Four. We get Tom Izzo doing typical Tom Izzo things. We continue following Kentucky's pursuit of perfection.

Of the remaining 16 teams, only North Carolina State (No. 32) falls outside the of top 30 in KenPom’s college basketball rankings. There aren’t any miracles left—just good teams.

Sorry, Cinderella, but your services are no longer required this season.

An All-ACC Final Four Is in Play

Nell Redmond/Associated Press

Five ACC teams survived the first week of college basketball’s hardwood Hunger Games: top-seeded Duke, No. 3 seed Notre Dame, No. 4 seed North Carolina, No. 4 seed Louisville and No. 8 seed NC State. The potential for an all-ACC Final Four still exists, a feat never before accomplished. 

Despite having the most remaining teams of any conference, there is a legitimate possibility that none of the ACC Five survive the road to Indianapolis. Each path is littered with hazards and perils.

The ACC’s best hope for a national title might lay with Duke, currently playing some of the best basketball in the nation, with wins over No. 16 seed Robert Morris by 29 and No. 8 seed San Diego State by 19.

Every unlucky sap that has drawn the assignment of Jahlil Okafor down on the block has been helpless against the wide body and fancy footwork of the NBA’s next possible No. 1 overall pick. Okafor has posted offensive ratings of 125 and 137 over his first two games, while Justise Winslow’s maddening (for the opposition) brand of defense has led to plenty of helter-skelter offensive play by Duke’s opponents.

Winslow posted an absurd defensive rating of 55 against the Aztecs in round three, while contributing 13 points, 12 rebounds, five assists, four steals and three blocks. Winslow’s potent defense might wind up being the key to survival in these next two rounds.

But, Duke has two dangerous West Coast squads standing in its way: Utah in the Sweet 16 and either Gonzaga or UCLA in the Elite Eight. Utah and Gonzaga both possess a lethal combination of size and skill, enough to stifle Okafor and push what can be an inconsistent Blue Devils’ defense to its limits. Okafor is the engine, but if the other parts—Winslow, Quinn Cook, Tyus Jones, Amile Jefferson—aren’t working, Duke’s run will come to a swift end.

Elsewhere, North Carolina will have to make it past Wisconsin and, most likely, Arizona in the West to grab a seat at the Final Four table. Notre Dame, fresh off an overtime escape from Butler, faces a confident Wichita State team. Should they win, it's likely to be rewarded with a battle against Kentucky. Both situations seem dire.

Should Duke falter, the ACC may have to turn to the East Region, where Louisville and NC State are prepared to do battle for the second time this season before moving on to face the winner of Oklahoma-Michigan State in the Elite Eight. With No. 1 seed Villanova and No. 2 seed Virginia the faces of disappointment this year, the region is wide open.

Rick Pitino and Tom Izzo have the experience, but NC State already beat Louisville once this year, and Oklahoma is hungry for its first Final Four since 2002. There’s no juggernaut in this section of the bracket, which leaves it wide open for the Cardinals and Wolfpack.

Mark Few's Best Team Ever?

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

This iteration of the Gonzaga Bulldogs might just be the best in Mark Few’s 16 years at the helm. Since Few took over ahead of the 1999-2000 season, the Bulldogs have been to every single NCAA tournament, but the Zags have never survived the Sweet 16.

That unfortunate distinction appears poised to change this year. Gonzaga ranks fourth in adjusted offense and 35th in adjusted defense this season, per KenPom. The Bulldogs were knocked because of a soft in-conference schedule, but their skilled players matchup with any roster in the country—even those Monstars from Kentucky.

Gonzaga wasn’t as dominant against North Dakota State in Round 1 as most Zags fans would have liked, but the frustration from that game metabolized into pure basketball energy against Iowa in the next round. Kyle Wiltjer turned on a cheat code so he couldn’t miss, Domantas Sabonis transformed into his father and Kevin Pangos calmly steered the ship.

Few has had talented teams, but this roster has the makeup of a national champion. Its offense hums along, propelled by the unflappable excellence of Wiltjer, the continued growth of Sabonis, the dominance of Polish colossus Przemek Karnowski and the guidance of Gary Bell and Pangos.

UCLA has had one of the luckiest tournaments a team could have. Sneaking into the field, stealing a victory from SMU, drawing the “easiest” third-round matchup in the entire tournament. UCLA has talent consistent with what one might expect form the Bruins, but its inconsistent play throughout the year is no match for a team as dually talented as Gonzaga.

One can bet that UCLA isn't too hung up on the continued knocks on their credentials, even after making it this far. Freshman Kevon Looney has drawn Kevin Durant comparisons, and while that's a typical basketball hyperbole, the 6'9" forward with the 7'3" wingspan is capable of causing chaos on both ends of the floor.

The Bruins have five players averaging over 10.6 points per game. Bryce Alford (15.6 PPG, 39% 3PT) might be the hottest player in the tournament—the sophomore totaled 49 points and made 12 threes against SMU and UAB.

The Bruins can come at you in a myriad of ways, but even with all that firepower, Steve Alford's Bruins don't have the skill and patience to continue this unexpected run. UCLA might be a hot rod, but the driving is erratic and the engine is prone to blow. The Zags have no such problems.

This latest incarnation of the Bulldogs should finally allow Few to add a Sweet 16 victory to his resume, but anything short of a run to the Final Four for this team will be viewed as a disappointment by the Gonzaga faithful.

Never Count out Izzo

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

Another year, another Sweet 16.

This was supposed to be a down season for Michigan State, at least by the standards established in the Izzo era. Yet, here we are, in late March, and the Michigan State Spartans are making a deep run in the NCAA tournament once again.

This team isn’t stocked with the talent of previous Spartans squads, but its three upperclassmen leaders—junior Denzel Valentine and seniors Branden Dawson and Travis Trice—know how to win. This is Michigan State’s fourth straight Sweet 16 appearance, with a legitimate shot at advancing to its second straight Elite Eight.

Even with Izzo at the helm, Oklahoma will present some serious problems for the Spartans, especially on the defensive end. The Sooners are ranked sixth in adjusted defense, per KenPom. Neither team is on the larger end of the spectrum, but each team has some guys that like to bang down low.

Michigan State's Brandon Dawson (9.0 RPG, 1.6 BPG) and Oklahoma's Ryan Spangler will be colliding a lot down low, and this might end up being one of the more exciting, albeit rugged, matchups in the entire tournament. The Spartans will need to keep Spangler, Thomas and the rest of the Sooners off the offensive glass in order to minimize the number of looks Buddy Hield (36.1% 3PT) and Isaiah Cousins (45.3% 3PT) get.

Much like in the Virginia game, adjustments are going to be made by Izzo and his staff in order for the Spartans to pull off another upset. Luckily for Michigan State, it has a little more time than the one day it was afforded against the Cavaliers.

"They literally taught us a totally different game plan from some of the things we've been taught for four years, honestly," Trice told Chris Solari of the Detroit Free Press following the Spartans’ win over Virginia. "And for them to be able to display that to us and for us to pick it up, I just think it shows how great of coaches they are."

Oklahoma has five players averaging over 9.3 points per game, with sharp-shooting Buddy Hield leading the way at 17.3. Lon Kruger is able to deploy a variety of sets to get his players buckets, and even role players like Frank Booker (14.1 MPG, 5.2 PPG), who had 12 points in 20 minutes against Dayton in the third round, are capable of putting up double-digit points.

While the seeding might suggest that the Sooners will be slight favorites in a battle between head coaches that know each other quite well, never dismiss the March magic of Tom Izzo and his Spartans.

Big Men Back in Style

David Stephenson/Associated Press

Over the last several years, the basketball world has been overtaken by a bevy of talented guards and wings. But this year’s NCAA tournament has shown that the big man—true bigs, not floor-stretching forwards like Wiltjer—is a long way from extinction.

It seems like every team in the Sweet 16 has at least one major post presence, whether it be a skilled offensive technician like Okafor, or a defensive menace like Willie Cauley-Stein. There’s not a single region without at least one menacing big lurking.

It seems if you want to keep dancing, you have to be able to tango in the paint. Just look at this lineup of remaining post threats:

Duke’s Jahlil Okafor. Gonzaga’s Domanatas Sabonis and Przemek Karnowski. Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky. Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns and Cauley-Stein. Arizona’s Kaleb Tarcewski. West Virginia’s Devin Williams. Lousiville’s Montrezl Harrell. Utah’s Jacob Poeltl. Xavier’s Matt Stainbrook. Notre Dame’s Zach Auguste. North Carolina’s Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks.

That’s a lot of large men with bad basketball intentions.

Kentucky routinely dismantles any opposition that can’t stand up to its intimidating length and post presence, but many of the remaining teams possess forwards and centers capable of engaging in those dirty mêlées in the paint. The biggest threat to Kentucky’s undefeated season might be a big threat, and those loom everywhere this year.

Duke, Gonzaga and Arizona all possess the athleticism, scoring prowess and requisite big man required to stop the unstoppable force that is Kentucky. Should Kentucky meet any of these three, expect a clash of titans complete with lots of blocks, posterizations and snarling.

Advanced statistics are courtesy of Sports-Reference.com and KenPom.