Final Four Predictions 2015: Updated Bracket, NCAA Championship Game Picks

The NCAA tournament hasn't been kind to some Final Four favorites thus far. Teams like Villanova and Virginia have found that seeding and regular-season accomplishments only go so far in making it to Indianapolis. 

On the other hand, some favorites have already performed exactly to expectations. Kentucky has laid waste to two consecutive opponents and appears to be well on its way to March Madness survival. 

Here's a region-by-region look at who appears to be headed to the Final Four after an eventful three rounds has narrowed the field down to 16. 

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Matchup	Winner
Final Four: Kentucky vs. Wisconsin	Wisconsin 65, Kenucky 63
Final Four: Michigan State vs. Duke	Duke 80, Michigan State 68
National Championship: Wisconsin vs. Duke	Wisconsin 75, Duke 70

Midwest: Kentucky Wildcats

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

It's no secret that the Kentucky Wildcats are the odds-on favorites to not only make it to the Final Four but win the whole thing once they get there.

From the undefeated record to the slew of NBA-ready talent on the roster, there are numerous reasons Odds Shark gives the Wildcats 1-1 odds to cut down the nets. So far, the Wildcats have done nothing to cast doubt on those odds.

Granted, the Cincinnati Bearcats were able to slow them down offensively. They were held to 64 points and seemed to struggle at times with Cincinnati's physicality. As discussed in the video below, the game could be a glimmer of hope for those hoping to dethrone Kentucky:

But the bottom line is that John Calipari's squad still won the game by 13 points. If that's being "slowed down," that's a great problem to have. 

The fact is that no one in the Midwest Region has looked up to the task of beating Kentucky to this point. Notre Dame—the No. 3 seed in the region—needed overtime to defeat a Butler team led by a hobbled Roosevelt Jones. No. 2 seed Kansas has already been eliminated by a Wichita State team who would struggle to match Kentucky's ability on the interior. 

West Virginia's pressure will provide an interesting challenge, but Kentucky's performance to this point has simply been too strong to pick against it. 

South: Duke Blue Devils

The South Region got a whole lot more interesting with Gonzaga's evisceration of Iowa. It's tough not to take the No. 2 Zags seriously after that thrashing. However, Duke still stands out as the strongest bet to make it to the Final Four. 

Gonzaga has looked strong thus far, but a closer look at its wins reveals two things that could be exploited by a team as talented as Duke.

First, the defense has been less than impressive. Hidden by an offense that is clicking on all cylinders is the fact that the Bulldogs allowed North Dakota State to shoot better than 50 percent from the field in their first tournament game. 

Things didn't get much better defensively for the Zags against the Hawkeyes. Though their offense overwhelmed their Big 10 foes, their defense was far from suffocating. The offensively inept Hawkeyes shot 46.7 percent from the field.  

Obviously this is some nitpicking. They won those games by a combined 29 points. However, when it comes down to playing an elite team like Duke, this is the kind of thing that could come back to haunt them. 

East: Michigan State Spartans

Nell Redmond/Associated Press

The East has epitomized the madness of March. Just one weekend into the tournament, and the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are now gone. That's the first time that's happened since 2004, per Jon Solomon of CBS Sports:

"

Last time 1 and 2 seeds in same region both failed to make Sweet 16 was 2004 (UAB over Kentucky, Nevada over Gonzaga).

— Jon Solomon (@JonSolomonCBS) March 22, 2015"

With this rare level of madness, it's best to ignore seeding. Clearly, the selection committee's hierarchy hasn't mattered much to this point. That means that it isn't out of the question that a No. 7 seed like the Michigan State Spartans could make the Final Four. 

In fact, they are the favorite to do so, according to Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight:

In reality, the Spartans shouldn't have been No. 7 seeds to begin with. As Bob Valvano of ESPN pointed out, the Spartans came into the tournament as one of the most under-seeded squads by ESPN's BPI metric:

Thus far, Michigan State has proven the metrics to be correct. Tom Izzo's squad has beaten Georgia and Virginia by seven and six points, respectively. Travis Trice has been a star in the tournament so far with 38 points in two games, including 23 against Virginia's vaunted defense.

Throw in backcourt mate Denzel Valentine, who is capable of carrying this team at times, and you have the kind of experienced backcourt that can lead to a surprising tournament run.  

West: Wisconsin Badgers

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

The West Region might be the hardest to predict at this point.

That's not because there's been a whole lot of madness—this part of the bracket has mostly played out chalk up to this point—but because the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds have done exactly what one would think they would. 

Arizona has been the most impressive through two rounds. Not only did they dispatch No. 15 Texas Southern with ease, but they also dominated No. 10 Ohio State en route to a Sweet 16 berth. 

Wisconsin, on the other hand, has already seen its first test of the tournament. Led by Joseph Young's 30 points, the Oregon Ducks were within single digits for much of their game against the Badgers before Wisconsin finally pulled away in the final minutes. 

So why pick Wisconsin?

Well, as Seth Davis of CBS Sports notes, that kind of game is nothing new for Wisconsin. Closing out games has been a strength for Bo Ryan's team all year:

Beyond that, Wisconsin and Arizona are nearly identical. ESPN's BPI has the two teams ranked Nos. 2 and 3, respectively. The KenPom rankings flip the two at Nos. 2 and 3.  

In a matchup like this, it can often come down to turnovers. The team that takes care of the ball will generate enough shots to get the edge. If that's the case, the Badgers are the one with the advantage. According to TeamRankings.com, Wisconsin is No. 1 in turnovers per possession (12.2 percent), while Arizona is 41st (16.3).