Best Possible Outcomes for New England Patriots' Top 3 Draft Picks

To paraphrase Jon Steinbeck, the best laid schemes of NFL teams often go awry.  The NFL draft is an unpredictable, dynamic system in which a single phone call inevitably fosters wide-ranging ripple effects.  While that makes for terrific TV drama, it highlights the difficulty of achieving an organizational agenda.

The New England Patriots have been more fortunate than most in that regard.  The Pats have had their fair share of misses like every other team, but Bill Belichick's dogged adherence to extracting value and upside from every draft transaction has given New England an edge over most of the league over the long haul.

With the Patriots roster is full of depth needs after numerous critical free-agent defections, the 2015 draft will likely be as much about short-term impact as long-term value.  While the Pats aren't likely to reach for need, it wouldn't be a surprise to see their draft board stacked heavier on certain positions like cornerback, defensive tackle and running back.

A couple of quick notes before we start: These are scenarios for New England's top three picks, but we won't project any trades.  So we'll be looking at players the Patriots could take at No. 32, No. 64 and No. 96.  It's highly improbable that Belichick won't move around the draft board, but think of this as an exercise in illustrating what type of value the Pats could extract from three distinct strata of the draft.

Scenario 1: The Backup Plans

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Round 1, Pick 32: Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State

Round 2, Pick 64: Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut

Round 3, Pick 96: Josue Matias, OG, Florida State

None of these players are poor choices, and in some cases, they might even contribute immediately.  But none offers the upside and/or versatility of some of the class' more exciting prospects, so while one or more of might find their way onto a Patriots draft card, it would be a slight letdown if the entire class had this makeup.

The 6'4", 336-pound Goldman sits in the large morass of defensive tackles projected to go late in the first round or early in the second, an area the Patriots appear primed to strike.  Goldman's marginal burst makes him more of a run-stuffer, albeit an effective two-gapper who should anchor a line for years.  But with Sealver Siliga and Alan Branch under contract for 2015, having a one-dimensional tackle like Goldman might seem a bit redundant.

Meanwhile, Jones has shot up draft boards due to a historically jaw-dropping combine showing.  Originally considered a mid-round prospect due to poor technique, especially with his footwork, the UConn product is now likely a Day 2 selection.  Jones is actually not just a total workout wonder, as he possesses excellent instincts in zone coverages that could turn him into a starter by the end of his rookie deal.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Matias' stock plummeted after the combine exposed his lack of size, strength and quick-twitch athleticism.  But he does possess the quickness to execute a variety of difficult lateral, bucket-step and down blocks.  If he bulks up at Florida State's March 31 pro day, perhaps Matias won't be available in this range.

Scenario 2: The Raw Upside Plays

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Round 1, Pick 32: Jalen Collins, CB, LSU

Round 2, Pick 64: Jay Ajayi, RB, Boise State

Round 3, Pick 96: Jaquiski Tartt, SS, Samford

All these players are supremely talented prospects with the upside to develop into the best players at their respective positions from this draft class.  But any immediate expectations should be tempered, and when a team harbors Super Bowl-or-bust expectations with a 38-year-old quarterback, many might not have that kind of patience.

LSU's Collins has played all of 10 collegiate games, but his decision to leave early probably won't cost him.  At 6'1" and 203 pounds with 32 ⅛" arms, Collins possesses ideal dimensions to play the perimeter in the NFL.  But his stiff hip fluidity and lack of patience in coverage can get defenses in trouble, so it wouldn't be surprising if Collins went to a team that could afford to essentially redshirt his rookie season.

Despite his mid-major pedigree, Ajayi is a furious downhill runner with soft hands and the opportunity to develop into this draft's best all-around back.  That's no faint praise given the depth at running back, but vaunted film rats like Matt Waldman of Football Outsides and Greg Cosell of NFL Films have lauded the ex-Bronco as well. 

Still, Ajayi also tends to exhibit a lack of patience; coupled with poor ball security and pass protection issues, he does just enough of the little things wrong to push him past the Todd Gurley-Melvin Gordon tier.

Tartt would be a bit of a surprise, but given the Patriots' weakness at corner, strengthening the supporting cast around the weakest link isn't necessarily a bad idea if the value is right.  The small-school safety was one of the biggest standouts at the Senior Bowl, so while his presence might seem redundant with Patrick Chung and Tavon Wilson on the roster, Tartt could develop into a long-term safety partner next to Devin McCourty.

Scenario 3: Good Value, Non-Need

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Round 1, Pick 32: Preston Smith, DE, Mississippi State

Round 2, Pick 64: Devin Funchess, WR/TE, Michigan

Round 3, Pick 96: David Cobb, RB, Minnesota

These players don't come with skill sets that fulfill New England's most pressing needs, but they figure to make the Patriots better in the long run.  Expect Belichick to splurge on at least one of these future-minded picks, though an entire class of them might be overkill.

I've been a huge fan of Preston Smith in recent writings, so I won't rehash too much about the Mississippi State defensive end.  Just know that others are starting to value the uber-versatile Smith, who should be a strong edge-setter against the run from Day 1.  He's not the flashy edge-rusher that permeates throughout this year's class, but his motor, arm length and versatility provide a base for him to develop into a player who can get eight to 10 sacks per year.

Funchess has been linked to New England in past mock drafts, but a lack of standout film has likely dropped him into Day 2 range.  Analysts have attempted to force-feed the Patriots a vertical threat for years, but truthfully, New England's option-oriented seam-to-seam passing game doesn't need a burner to succeed.  At 6'4", 232 pounds, Funchess does possess the size to create the types of mismatches Belichick loves, but Scott Chandler's presence as a secondary red-zone threat next to Rob Gronkowski makes Funchess potentially redundant.

Cobb is a fine running back in a deep class, and his lack of speed (4.81 40-yard dash at Indy) will likely make him available late into Day 2.  Still, the Minnesota product is a violent downhill runner with terrific vision and an endearing one-cut running style.  He essentially profiles as another Stevan Ridley, and despite his polarizing Foxborough career, Pats fans should really be pleased if Cobb could match Ridley's per-carry production.

Scenario 4: Big Talent with Risk

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Round 1, Pick 32: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

Round 2, Pick 64: Carl Davis, DT, Iowa

Round 3, Pick 96: Ali Marpet, G, Hobart

The Patriots have never been afraid to gamble in the draft, particularly with medical red flags (Dominique Easley, Rob Gronkowski, Ras-I Dowling, etc.).  However, these players come with questions about their character, motor and collegiate pedigree, so while each has terrific talent, it may not be ideal to build an entire class around them.

Peters is a well-known prospect by this point who is either at the top of a team's board or off it entirely.  No cornerback prospect possesses better ball skills, something the Pats could desperately use on the perimeter.  If Peters checks out in predraft interviews, he probably won't last until the 32nd pick, though his upside may be worth betting on if the Patriots feel comfortable.

Carl Davis has been a first-round prospect in numerous mock drafts, but persistent questions about his motor and passion are the kind of scarlet letters that could drop him this far.  Again, the Patriots would need to feel confident in Davis' love for the game, a trait Belichick has seen as indispensable in his players.  Nevertheless, Davis could become a rare three-down defensive tackle who becomes a worthy Vince Wilfork successor, so he still deserves due diligence at this point in the predraft process.

Marpet captured mainstream attention for his strong combine showing, which should propel him into a Day 2 draft spot.  His versatility to play all three interior line spots is an asset, but the gap between Division III and the NFL is practically intergalactic, so Marpet likely wouldn't provide much 2015 value to a Pats team that still has a hole at left guard.

Scenario 5: Best Case

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Round 1, Pick 32: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest

Round 2, Pick 64: Tre' Jackson, G, Florida State

Round 3, Pick 96: Grady Jarrett, DT, Clemson

Whereas I've had nitpicks with the other hypothetical scenarios, these players would provide an ideal balance of need fulfillment, pro readiness, future upside and program fit.  If the Patriots actually pulled off this type of draft class, perhaps you'd hear breathless articles handing out "A" grades and proclaiming New England the new Super Bowl favorites.

Johnson is the most pro-ready corner in this class, as his precocious technique and versatility to play either man or zone coverages have him shooting up draft boards.  There's a chance Johnson may not be available when the Pats pick at No. 32, but much like how Devin McCourty was able to handle being jerked around various schemes, Johnson is the exact type of prospect the Pats need as they attempt to figure out what kind of coverage team they want to be for 2015.

Jackson could fill that left guard hole in Week 1, as the 6'4", 330-pound ex-Seminole possesses the strength to help in the running game right away.  He may need to shed some of that weight to help his footwork in pass protection, but Jackson's aggression would play well next to collegiate teammate Bryan Stork.

Clemson's Jarrett might be a bit undersized to play nose tackle at just 304 pounds, but scouts have sworn that his game film should usurp his mediocre measurables.  Jarrett plays with low leverage and generates consistent power, and as a relentless player who always exerts maximum effort despite his size, he would likely endear himself to Patriots fans immediately.