The Best Head-to-Head Matchups in the Sweet 16 of the 2015 NCAA Tournament
The NCAA Tournament highlights not only great games, but awesome one-on-one matchups. And the spotlight on those battles is growing brighter as we reach the Sweet 16.
Teams have gotten to this point because they know how to hide flaws, embellish strengths and assert willpower.
Here are eight player matchups (one for each contest Thursday and Friday) to consider as pivotal for the success or failure of both teams in each Sweet 16 game.
We look at schemes to stop individual stars, wily veterans, high-level big men, double-double machines, one of the hottest hands after the opening weekend and a potential fire extinguisher.
Read on to see an octet of great duels that will determine who will reach the Elite Eight.
Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Devin Williams
1 of 8
Teams: No. 1 Kentucky (36-0) vs. No. 5 West Virginia (25-9)
When: Thursday, 9:45 p.m. EDT (CBS)
Where: Midwest Regional, Cleveland
Devin Williams is the best West Virginia rebounder on a team that isn't exactly great at that craft.
Hurrying teams up? Sure. Getting steals? Definitely. But gathering missed shots is not the Mountaineers' strength. In what will be a massive assignment, the 6'9'' Williams will have to keep 6'11'' Karl-Anthony Towns away from offensive rebounds.
Willie Cauley-Stein and Towns are ridiculously effective at the rim, so it will be a team effort to keep them off the glass.
But it starts with Williams, who is fourth nationally in defensive rebounding percentage (about 30 percent). He is coming off a 16-and-10 against Maryland last weekend, though by no means were the Terrapins a great rebounding team.
Towns has sometimes been accused of coasting, but he is still a force in the paint: a top-30 rebounder on offense and top 70 at the defensive end.
Then factor in that Kentucky grabs offensive rebounds on 40 percent of its missed shots, sixth nationally.
Kentucky’s premium bigs might just be too much for WV. The Mountaineers faced a similar task in two games against the big men of Texas this season. They split the season series but were minus-16 in rebounds in those two games.
Williams had a total of only 11 rebounds and found foul trouble in both games.
That kind of vulnerability will likely mean bad things and easy put-backs for the Wildcats.
Pat Connaughton vs. Ron Baker
2 of 8
Teams: No. 3 Notre Dame (31-5) vs. No. 7 Wichita State (30-4)
When: Thursday, 7:15 p.m. EDT (CBS)
Where: Midwest Regional, Cleveland
It almost feels wrong to not first discuss the point guards here. Yes, the all-around talent of Fred VanVleet of WSU facing Notre Dame’s high-octane scorer Jerian Grant is going to be a doozy. But other matchups make this must-see TV.
It could easily come down to Wichita State’s Ron Baker and Notre Dame’s Pat Connaughton, a pair of multisport standouts growing up who know what it takes to win and seem to find big plays that change games. They are heart-and-soul guys of their respective teams.
The 6’4’’ Baker is coming off an emotionally charged win against childhood favorite Kansas. He had 12 points and three rebounds, but it was his defense along the perimeter that stifled Kansas. He does little things—close-outs, perfect defensive angles—that numb an opponent’s efficiency. Of statistical note, he’s WSU’s best scorer (14.9).
Connaughton is 6’5’’, and his game sets the tone for the Irish’s chemistry. Like Baker, he can shoot from the outside or post up. He rebounds, too, leading his team with 7.3 a game.
The two are months apart in age, butut their experience levels aren’t exactly the same. Baker’s been through more, especially this time of year.
Look for him to make one more play. It won't necessarily be against Connaughton, but his savvy will be found somewhere late to keep the Shockers in northeast Ohio a couple of extra days.
Frank Kaminsky vs. Joel James
3 of 8
Teams: No. 1 Wisconsin (33-3) vs. No. 4 North Carolina (26-11)
When: Thursday, 7:47 p.m. EDT (CBS)
Where: West Regional, Los Angeles
Imagine being Joel James right now. James started a couple of ACC tournament games when Kennedy Meeks was sick.
Now, James could potentially have a bigger assignment than the junior's 10-minute and 2.5-point averages would indicate: keeping up with Frank Kaminsky.
Meeks sprained his left knee last Saturday against Arkansas and is questionable. Against Wisconsin’s size, the last thing the Tar Heels can afford is to be a man down.
Coach Roy Williams said it’s not looking good for Meeks, who is 6’9’’ and averages 11.6 points and 7.4 rebounds.
UNC will have to contend with versatile post players Sam Dekker and Kaminsky without much experience. Isaiah Hicks (6’8’’, 220) and James (6’10’’, 280) have combined to start six games. Brice Johnson could be an option, but there’s also a serious risk of fatigue and foul trouble in play—not to mention the skill difference against two of the best players in the country. Besides, the 6'9'' junior was spotty at best in the tournament's opening weekend.
James could be the best option if Father Time and modern medicine can’t lend the Tar Heels a hand.
Whatever the case, it sure seems like a prime opportunity for Kaminsky to seal the verdict as the best player in the country this year.
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Jahlil Okafor vs. Jakob Poeltl
4 of 8
Teams: No. 1 Duke (31-4) vs. No. 5 Utah (26-8)
When: Friday, 9:45 p.m. EDT (CBS)
Where: South Regional, Houston
Utah simply has to admit it has no way to replicate Jahlil Okafor in practice.
That doesn’t mean the Utes are guaranteed an L on Thursday. Jakob Poeltl had 18 points and five blocks in his first NCAA tournament game, a win against Stephen F. Austin, when there wasn’t a natural matchup for him on the floor.
Poeltl can at least be in a relative comfort zone facing a fellow freshman 7-footer. Along with Dallin Bachynski, look for the Utes to use their 10 fouls and make the potential No. 1 NBA draft pick work for everything.
Okafor is shooting 67 percent from the field and 51 percent from the foul line. Hack-a-Jahlil, right? Utah has the bodies to do it.
Okafor has coasted so far. We say that in the nicest way possible. He’s averaging 23.5 points on 21-of-27 shooting in the tournament. The question is how much he'll be challenged by a fellow big man.
As Steve Wiseman points out in the Durham Herald-Sun, Poeltl has made 69 percent of his shots but averages just 9.1 points per game. That means the Utes probably need to get the ball to him as often as Duke will go seeking its big fella.
Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski expressed concern of Poeltl in Wiseman's article:
“He is a really good player and he is going to be a big-time pro,” Krzyzewski said. “He runs. He’s great in the ball screen because he gets around so well. He’s a great offensive rebounder.”
However, Ed Isaacson of NBADraftBlog.com thinks Bachynski could cause more problems for Okafor.
This should be a tighter challenge for Duke as a whole, but just looking at Utah’s No. 7 adjusted defensive efficiency isn’t enough. After all, San Diego State is No. 4 and the Aztecs were obliterated quickly last weekend by Okafor.
But Poeltl has size and quick feet that could pose a test. The beauty of Poeltl’s situation is he has nothing to lose. He’s rocketed from an obscure Austrian to a possible NBA prospect.
Okahor should have the advantage in this one. His passing and the playmakers around will be just enough of an edge to get by a Utes team that will find ways to hang close, despite Okafor’s presence.
Gary Bell Jr. vs. Bryce Alford
5 of 8
Teams: No. 2 Gonzaga (34-2) vs. No. 11 UCLA (22-13)
When: Friday, 7:15 p.m. EDT (CBS)
Where: South Regional, Houston
UCLA guard Bryce Alford has made 15 of his 26 NCAA tournament shots, including nine three-pointers against SMU in the Bruins’ first game.
Something has to give, right? That's Gary Bell Jr.'s job. He needs to give the UCLA coach's son a hard time for an entire game.
These teams met Dec. 13 at UCLA, and Gonzaga won handily, 87-74. Alford led his team with 23.
But there's a reason why Gonzaga coach Mark Few was popping handstands after advancing to the Sweet 16. It's not just having stud forward Kyle Wiltjer; it's the confidence he infuses in a team that makes it that much harder to stop as Few chases his first Elite Eight appearance.
It means Gonzaga has plenty of scoring and can let its best defender focus strictly on his craft. This is a better, more confident Bulldogs team these days than even in December. Getting through the first NCAA tournament weekend was a major psychological hurdle.
Alford, while on an admirable roll, will have to deal with Bell Jr., one of the more unheralded defense-first players in the country. He averages 8.4 points, the lowest among GU's five starters. He'll score in the open court and get an occasional three-point look.
But his biggest offense is his defense, and he is regularly assigned to an opponent's top perimeter threat. He was the West Coast Conference's defensive player of the year.
Both teams rely on scoring balance, but the Bulldogs should have a little more of it as the country’s top-ranked team in field-goal percentage. And they also have Bell Jr., a first-class luxury against a hot hand.
Kaleb Tarczewski vs. Matt Stainbrook
6 of 8
Teams: No. 2 Arizona (33-3) vs. No. 6 Xavier (23-13)
When: Thursday, 10:17 p.m. EDT (TBS)
Where: West Regional, Los Angeles
Basketball games can be won in the trenches, too. Arizona and Xavier will most likely need to prove it with a combined 508 pounds of valuable presence in the paint.
Xavier’s Matt Stainbrook will be the bigger focal point, because more of the Musketeers’ game plan revolves around him. He’s a 6’10’’, 263-pound senior who is their leading scorer and rebounder. He relies on smoother footwork and moves than his goggled presence suggests. He’s made 12 of his 15 shots in the tournament’s first two games.
Kaleb Tarczewski (7’0’’, 245) has hit five of his nine shots in the tournament so far. He shoots 58 percent from the field, but his problem is on the other end of the court, where his foul trouble has played a part in two Arizona's three losses this season.
Xavier will play a lot of zone to protect Stainbrook and try to minimize the sleek Wildcat guard line. Arizona mostly plays man-to-man, and expect UA to gamble and double-team Stainbrook to get the ball out of his hands. Stainbrook will get the ball early and often to try to start the wear-down process that he’s known for during his 26.5-minute average.
Tarczewski will need to look for his offense more, not to match Stainbrook but to force him to exert himself more. The UA center's biggest advantage is having more talent around him.
Cat Barber vs. Terry Rozier
7 of 8
Teams: No. 4 Louisville (26-8) vs. No. 8 North Carolina State (22-13)
When: Friday, 7:37 p.m. ET (TBS)
Where: East Regional, Syracuse
This isn’t your typical Louisville team, and North Carolina State’s Cat Barber proved that in the first meeting.
The Wolfpack point guard had 21 points and only two turnovers on Feb. 14 in a nine-point road win over Louisville.
But the rematch now pits Barber’s tenacity against a revamped Cardinals team that must find a way to slow down the former Rick Pitino recruit. That challenge starts with Terry Rozier, who averages a team-best two steals a game—below what you'd expect out of a Pitino defense, but it's still worked to this point.
It was just nine days after losing to N.C. State that Pitino dismissed point guard Chris Jones, whom Tim Sullivan of the Louisville Courier-Journal speculates was chosen instead of Barber.
“I thought he dominated us,” Louisville coach Rick Pitino said after the game. “He broke pressure, did a great job.”
Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/incoming/article10437419.html#storylink=cpy
Revenge works both ways here. Rozier has something to prove, too. He missed eight of his 11 shots in the first meeting, so he'll have to be better at both ends of the floor.
Louisville has played more cohesively since Jones left. But it hasn’t exactly solved the steals problem (or lack of them) in Pitino's matchup zone defense. A program known for harassing pressure still has the dismissed Jones as its co-leader in steals with two a game.
N.C. State has played spotty at times this year, but it’s rolling right now. And Barber’s offense—and ability to make others better—has more upside than Louisville’s defense.
Ryan Spangler vs. Branden Dawson
8 of 8
Teams: No. 3 Oklahoma (24-10) vs. No. 7 Michigan State (25-11)
When: Friday, 10:07 p.m. ET (TBS)
Where: East Regional, Syracuse
Can a pair of double-double threats really be lacking attention? They could be if you’re watching the Spartans and Sooners go to work. But it will be a significant post-up and box-out matchup that will steer the shooting tendencies of both teams.
OU forward Ryan Spangler has posted a relatively quiet 15 points and 23 rebounds through the tournament’s first weekend. Branden Dawson has 29 and 15, and his tenacity was vital in upsetting Virginia to reach the Sweet 16.
The Spartans were incredibly stubborn against UVA, including a second-half stretch when the Cavaliers couldn’t make a shot for about 10 minutes—even with extra tries on some possessions. Virginia had 18 offensive rebounds.
The battle for the boards will mean big things to their respective streaky scorers.
Oklahoma's Buddy Hield (just 10 makes in 29 shots) is a Big 12 POY who's due for an outbreak, while counterpart Travis Trice (13-of-30) can be a killer on second-chance three-pointers.
Dawson would appear to have the advantage, if only because the Spartans are so confident after stifling Virginia in a slugfest. Tom Izzo will be able to preach what MSU must do better this weekend in order to ensure it plays another game.
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