NBA Mock Draft 2015: Latest Predictions for 1st-Round Prospects
The bad luck that has befallen many of this year's NBA rookies illustrates the fallacy in expecting a player's career to go according to plan. Injuries happen, slumps happen and maybe the player isn't as good as everybody expected.
Keep that in mind as you shift your focus more and more toward the 2015 draft.
Plenty of players look like nailed-on All-Stars, but for whatever reason, things never quite come together. Meanwhile, others are complete afterthoughts on draft night but blossom into regular contributors.
Sure, watching a player in college allows fans to glean a rough set of ideas and opinions about a player's game, but things can change once he hits the NBA.
Here's a brief look at how the first round of the draft might unfold, followed by three players whose skill sets make for difficult pro projections.
| 1 | New York Knicks | Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky |
| 2 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke |
| 3 | Philadelphia 76ers | D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State |
| 4 | Los Angeles Lakers | Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China |
| 5 | Orlando Magic | Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona |
| 6 | Sacramento Kings | Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | Justise Winslow, SF, Duke |
| 8 | Detroit Pistons | Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | Mario Hezonja, SG/SF, Croatia |
| 10 | Miami Heat | Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas |
| 11 | Utah Jazz | Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas |
| 12 | Indiana Pacers | Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns | Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky |
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks (from Brooklyn Nets) | Myles Turner, PF/C, Texas |
| 16 | Boston Celtics | R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State |
| 17 | Milwaukee Bucks | Frank Kaminsky, PF/C, Wisconsin |
| 18 | Houston Rockets (from New Orleans Pelicans) | Kris Dunn, PG, Providence |
| 19 | Washington Wizards | Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA |
| 20 | Chicago Bulls | Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame |
| 21 | Toronto Raptors | Christian Wood, PF, UNLV |
| 22 | Dallas Mavericks | Delon Wright, PG/SG, Utah |
| 23 | Portland Trail Blazers | Buddy Hield, SG, Oklahoma |
| 24 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville |
| 25 | Los Angeles Lakers (from Houston Rockets) | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona |
| 26 | San Antonio Spurs | Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas |
| 27 | Boston Celtics (from Los Angeles Clippers) | Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia |
| 28 | Memphis Grizzlies | Tyus Jones, PG, Duke |
| 29 | Brooklyn Nets (from Atlanta Hawks) | Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Ron Baker, SG, Wichita State |
Most Intriguing First-Round Prospects
6. Sacramento Kings: Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
It would be way too simplistic to simply say Willie Cauley-Stein is the next Anthony Davis or Nerlens Noel. For one, Davis was a much better prospect coming out of college. In addition, Cauley-Stein didn't put up the same kind of defensive numbers that Noel did in his only season in Lexington.
Here's a look at Davis', Noel's and Cauley-Stein's per-40 numbers, according to Sports-Reference.com.
| Anthony Davis | |||||||
| 2011-12 | 17.7 | .623 | .709 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 13.7 | |
| Nerlens Noel | |||||||
| 2012-13 | 13.1 | .590 | .529 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 13.2 | |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | |||||||
| 2012-13 | 14.2 | .621 | .372 | 10.5 | 3.5 | 8.4 | |
| 2013-14 | 11.5 | .596 | .482 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 12.3 | |
| 2014-15 | 13.8 | .572 | .617 | 9.9 | 2.6 | 7.1 |
The three share some similar traits, but it would be inaccurate to draw a line between the three and say that they're all carbon copies of one another.
Like Davis and Noel, though, Cauley-Stein should be a lottery selection, even with his deficiencies on the offensive end. The Wildcats big man has the potential to be a force on the defensive end.
The question is whether Cauley-Stein can add any sort of touch around the rim. Everybody's aware that he can throw it down with the best of them, but that will only get him so far in the NBA. DeAndre Jordan is basically your ceiling in that regard.
If Cauley-Stein adds a few post moves to his game and becomes a better finisher, he could be one of the best centers in the league. But that's a big if, and it's what makes Cauley-Stein such an interesting prospect.
The Sacramento Kings would be a good home for him. The presence of DeMarcus Cousins would cover for Cauley-Stein's offensive issues, while Cauley-Stein's post defense would make up for Cousins' occasional lapses down low.
7. Denver Nuggets: Justise Winslow, SF, Duke
Justise Winslow is a bit like Cauley-Stein in that some more casual basketball fans are pigeonholing him into a comparison, in this case with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
Since Winslow is a great perimeter defender and not-so-great scoring threat, he must be the next Kidd-Gilchrist, right?
While the two do share some defensive characteristics, the comparison falls apart when you look at MKG's and Winslow's shooting numbers, courtesy of Sports-Reference.com.
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | ||||||
| 2011-12 | 15.3 | .535 | .255 | .570 | .511 | 20.6 |
| Justise Winslow | ||||||
| 2014-15 | 17.3 | .516 | .418 | .572 | .551 | 22.9 |
When he hits the league, Winslow shouldn't encounter the same kind of problems that Kidd-Gilchrist did offensively. Although he'll never be a high-volume scorer, Winslow could easily average something in the range of 12 to 15 points a night, which would be more than enough considering the other areas in which he can help a team.
His stat line in Duke's third-round win over San Diego State illustrated his versatility, per ESPN Stats & Info:
"Justise Winslow: 13 pts, 12 reb, 5 ast, 4 blocks, 3 steals; only other Duke player with 10-10-5-3-3 in NCAA tourney game: Grant Hill (1994)
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) March 22, 2015"
Should Winslow become a more consistent scorer, he could be one of the best players to come out of the 2015 draft.
And even if his offense doesn't progress demonstrably, he'll be a great complementary player for an eventual playoff contender, with one or two trips to the All-Star Game sprinkled in there.
26. San Antonio Spurs: Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas
Arguably no player saw his draft stock drop more over the course of the season than Cliff Alexander.
He headed to Kansas with a ton of hype. According to 247Sports' composite rankings, Alexander was the No. 4 recruit in the country and best power forward in the 2014 recruiting class. Along with fellow 5-star recruit Kelly Oubre, he was supposed to help the Jayhawks contend for a national championship.
Instead, Alexander was nothing short of a disappointment. He averaged just 7.1 points and 5.3 rebounds a game. The NCAA also ruled him ineligible as it investigated potential ties between his family and a financial firm.
As a result, Alexander has fallen from a potential lottery pick to a possible second-rounder. The more people have watched him, the more they've come to understand the limitations to his game.
As Chris Stone wrote for Upside and Motor, Alexander is caught between two positions:
"The problem for Alexander is that he's stuck in positional limbo. As a 6-foot-8, 240-pound big man, his size makes him more suited to play power forward in the NBA, but his current skill set fits the mold of an undersized center.
Offensively, Alexander is limited. He lacks a midrange game that would allow him to play power forward and space the floor in the modern NBA game. 35.7 percent of his field goal attempts this season are 2-point jump shots, according to Hoop Math data, but he is making just 34.8 percent of those attempts. Data from Shot Analytics shows that Alexander is only an above average shooter from the short corner on the right hand side of the floor.
"
At his worst, Alexander could be somebody who provides defense and rebounding off the bench. Players like that can have long careers in the league.
What's so interesting about Alexander is whether or not he can add a mid-range jumper and become a more prototypical 4. Maybe a coach like Gregg Popovich and a franchise like the San Antonio Spurs could coax the best out of him.
Note: Draft order is updated as of April 12 and subject to change depending on draft lottery and potential playoff positions.
