Teams on Upset Alert in Day 6 of 2015 NCAA Tournament

Now that the Villanova Wildcats are out—the first top seed to head home—the lid is really off. Anything's possible in this NCAA men's basketball tournament.

Four of the eight higher seeds are on upset alert Sunday. That includes a No. 1 seed (yeah, we're badgering it already) and a couple of No. 2 seeds.

Then watch out for a certain Cinderella that's been down this path before and knows this particular neighborhood well.

Of note, we're leaving out the closely seeded games and also No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 7 Wichita State.

The folks in Las Vegas have that as a close call, per OddsShark.com, and it wouldn't be a surprise if the Shockers pulled off the win.

Could Duke be a No. 1 seed that falls? Maybe someday, but it doesn't seem like the Blue Devils should be on full-blown alert yet with San Diego State on deck.

But some big-name, quality teams might find their roads coming to an end before the Sweet 16.

Virginia

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No. 2 Virginia vs. No. 7 Michigan State (East Region)

Justin Anderson looked like a better version of his old self Friday—a beautiful thing for Virginia, because it had been a while. The 6'6" Cavaliers junior now has to find a way to do it again two days later, which may not be easy.

He hasn't seen steady playing time in six weeks, and that could be a big endurance problem against the Spartans.

Anderson had 15 points (missing only two shots) in 26 minutes in Friday's round of 64—the most he's been on the floor since Feb. 2 in a road win at North Carolina. He had a stretch of eight missed games because of a broken finger, and then a case of appendicitis.

Anderson is playing with his pinky and ring finger taped together—Virginia will generally need that kind of cohesion against a Spartans team that is playing its best ball. Would we expect any less of a Tom Izzo-coached team at this time of year?

The Spartans' veterans are playing like you'd expect Izzo-cajoled journeymen to play. They're scoring effectively and keeping opponents from doing the same, and they have won five of the last six games.

And it gets better: Izzo is 12-1 in the round of 32 and far more experienced than counterpart Tony Bennett. This isn't one of Izzo's most talented teams, but it may be among his most unified.

Virginia looked vulnerable against Belmont in a 12-point win to start the tournament. The Cavaliers had trouble guarding a spread-out offense, and it wasn't just made three-pointers; Belmont also found attack lanes.

Michigan State has the kind of selfless team that could take advantage of such gaps. It had 18 assists in its first tournament game against Georgia.

True, the Spartans' 19 fast-break points won't come as easily against Bennett's team, ranked No. 2 in KenPom.com's adjusted defensive efficiency. Virginia also has to watch out for MSU finding extra rebounds on offense.

Branden Dawson will be a huge factor; the 6'6" senior had 24 points and 10 rebounds against the Cavaliers last year in a Sweet 16 victory.

Virginia's biggest task will be getting the most out of Anderson on short rest.

Wisconsin

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No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 8 Oregon (West Region)

With the way Wisconsin let No. 16 seed Coastal Carolina hang around Friday, Oregon may owe the Chanticleers a thank-you note.

Coastal Carolina showed the Ducks what they need to do to pull off a major upset: be themselves. And Oregon brings athletic players, led by Joseph Young, who can score from just about anywhere. That's a fine start.

"I don't think we played terrible defense. They were just hitting some really ridiculous shots," UW guard Bronson Koenig told Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal after defeating Coastal Carolina.

You ain't seen nothin' yet, Bronson. The Ducks could be primed for an upset if they hit shots, control the tempo (they are 33rd-fastest nationally and 15th in efficiency) and keep playing like they have been the last three weeks, winning 12 of 14 since Jan. 28.

Execution is at the top of the list. Head coach Bo Ryan's Badgers score, don't turn the ball over and aren't going to be unhinged by Oregon's athleticism. But they could be undone by severely hot hands.

Young has scored 30 points in a game four times this year, and his freshmen teammates looked undaunted in the opening-round win against No. 9 Oklahoma State. Young had 29 against the Badgers last year in a round-of-32 thriller.

Wisconsin's challenge will be creating steadiness when Oregon wants turmoil. The Ducks have been blown out several times this year but haven't lost a game decided by five points or fewer. Young had the team's last 15 points of the first half against Oklahoma State.

He is a keystone presence like Frank Kaminsky, able to get his team on rolls or out of droughts.

The Badgers' size will be the greatest counterpoint, as Kaminsky (7'0") and Sam Dekker (6'9") will have considerable advantages. Oregon doesn't have a key contributor taller than 6'8" and isn't particularly strong at forcing turnovers.

Gonzaga

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No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 7 Iowa (South Region)

Facing Iowa, Gonzaga has to feel like it's looking right into a mirror. That can be a comforting situation—but also a scary one.

The Hawkeyes are one of the few squads that can truly match up with the No. 2 seed in terms of size, and, unlike Mark Few's squad, Iowa won't be under any pressure.

Gonzaga will have to deal with the tension of trying to make it out of the weekend for the first time since 2009, but also, more critically, they'll contend with an Iowa front line that is talented and tall. Iowa is seventh in "effective height" by KenPom.com standards, not far off Gonzaga's standing.

That list means something: Kentucky is at the top, and high seeds Gonzaga, Wisconsin and Maryland are all in the top 10.

Gonzaga is the superior shot-blocking team, but that's a slightly unfair comparison. Gonzaga didn't see anyone in the West Coast Conference that could be so formidable against its biggest strengths.

Assuming the front line becomes a stalemate, Gonzaga will need its guard play to be the difference.

Iowa has guards Peter Jok and Mike Gesell, who just throttled Davidson's counterparts in their opening game, a totally unexpected development. Gonzaga has a more complete guard line than the Hawkeyes do, though not by a landslide.

Kyle Wiltjer is a different challenge, but he'll need to avoid foul trouble and be a presence versus 7'1" Adam Woodbury and Co. Gonzaga's bigs were quiet in a home loss to undersized BYU a few weeks ago, and that was a major wake-up call for the group.

Oklahoma

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No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 11 Dayton (East Region)

Oklahoma has drawn the most dangerous Cinderella of all: one that's been down this block before and isn't far from home.

Dayton continues to romp through NCAA tournament play, like it did during last year's Elite Eight jaunt. The Flyers have gotten off to a solid start with a true home win in the First Four followed by a short trip to Columbus, Ohio.

Oklahoma will need to strike early while making shots and running hard. The Sooners have a top-50 adjusted efficiency rating and a top-30 average possession length (16.6 seconds).

The meeting with the Sooners will be the Flyers' sixth game in 10 days, and Oklahoma will have to work that to its advantage with fresher legs and a consistent uptempo pace.

Buddy Hield leads the Sooners and had 15 points in his last game. TaShawn Thomas is coming off an 18-point effort against Albany, and the transfer looks to have found another gear.

The Sooners have to be wary of Jordan Sibert, a 6'4" senior guard who has been a rock and played at least 37 minutes in four of Dayton's last five games. He had 15 points against Providence on Friday but required 12 shots (nine three-pointers) to get them. The Flyers did a fantastic job of containing LaDontae Henton and Kris Dunn of Providence, so head coach Archie Miller's team knows what it's capable of.

Who says a mishmash of a defense—which KenPom.com labels as "inconclusive"—can't prevail? A sluggish day lets Dayton stick around, which is a no-no on what's basically a home court for the Flyers. 

Dayton is a lousy offensive rebounding team, so if the Sooners can guard well on the first shot, this could be a hard upset alarm to sound.