NCAA Tournament 2015: Round 3 Day 1 Schedule and Last-Minute Picks

Now that you have caught your breath following the upsets and thrilling finishes provided by the NCAA tournament in the round of 64, it's time to get ready for eight more games on Saturday that will determine half of the Sweet 16 field. 

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This is usually the time when you start to see major conference teams separate themselves from the pack, but recent years have provided plenty of opportunities for Cinderellas. Last year, for instance, saw Dayton and Stanford knock off Syracuse and Kansas to reach the Sweet 16. 

Time has made the NCAA tournament less predictable than ever, yet this is a prediction business. In an effort to help make sense of what should be expected on Saturday, here's a roundup of when you can catch all the Saturday games and what to watch for. 

Matchup	Start Time (ET)	Network	Prediction
No. 14 UAB vs. No. 11 UCLA	12:10 p.m.	CBS	UAB
No. 8 Cincinnati vs. No. 1 Kentucky	Approx. 2:40 p.m.	CBS	Kentucky
No. 10 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Arizona	5:15 p.m.	CBS	Arizona
No. 14 Georgia State vs. No. 6 Xavier	6:10 p.m.	TNT	Georgia State
No. 8 NC State vs. No. 1 Villanvoa	7:10 p.m.	TBS	Villanova
No. 5 Utah vs. No. 4 Georgetown	Approx. 7:45 p.m.	CBS	Utah
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 4 North Carolina	Approx. 8:40 p.m.	TNT	North Carolina
No. 6 Butler vs. No. 3 Notre Dame	Approx. 9:40 p.m.	TBS	Notre Dame

The Rise of the No. 14 Seeds

Just as they did on Thursday, UAB and Georgia State will continue to ruin a lot of brackets on Saturday with wins over UCLA and Xavier, respectively. 

It's easy to get swept up in the stories of these two programs after their incredible wins, clouding proper judgement, but let's not forget that these are two really good teams with favorable matchups. 

UAB vs. UCLA

David Stephenson/Associated Press

UAB got the easier draw with a matchup against a talented but inconsistent UCLA bunch. If you want to talk about being lucky, the Bruins needed a boneheaded play by SMU in the final seconds to win their second-round game. 

Per ESPN Stats & Info, history isn't on UAB's side in this particular matchup:

Yet history really has no place in this era of college basketball, where crazy things are happening every single game. History would have told you that UAB had no business beating Iowa State. 

More traditional metrics also love the Bruins, as ESPN's Alok Pattani noted on Twitter:

UCLA is going to get the favorable edge because it's the bigger program, but its resume doesn't look a lot better than UAB's. The Bruins were one of the most controversial at-large selections with just two wins over RPI Top 50 teams and five losses to teams outside the RPI Top 50 (h/t ESPN.com). 

So the Bruins played a difficult schedule, but if you don't beat any of the top teams you play, what does it matter?

UAB also had its problems in the regular season, as noted by Chris Johnson of Sports Illustrated:

"

The Blazers lost to every major-conference program they faced in November and December, and finished in fifth place in Conference USA, a league ranked 17^th in the country by kenpom.com. Even their three-game run through the conference tournament did little to make people think they could knock off Iowa State.

"

The separating factor is UAB's superior defense, which forced Iowa State into 11 turnovers and a 36.9 shooting percentage. UCLA had a strong defensive effort against SMU, limiting the Mustangs to a 36.4 percent shooting, but it still won by just a point after going 10-of-20 from three-point range. 

UCLA needs Bryce Alford to hit shots if it's going to win, while UAB can rely on William Lee, Robert Brown or Chris Cokley. It's going to be close, but the Blazers will keep winning thanks to a staunch defensive effort against an erratic Bruins team. 

Georgia State vs. Xavier

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Georgia State is a little harder to predict simply because it's playing a better opponent in Xavier, which is coming off an impressive 19-point win against Mississippi. 

Yet there's something gnawing in the back of my mind about a team trailing by 12 with less than three minutes to play against a Baylor squad that was believed to be good enough to reach the Final Four coming back in such dramatic fashion. 

That's not scientific or something you can prove, which is kind of the point of this whole event. Applying logic to anything that's happened through the round of 64 will leave you with a bracket worth setting on fire.

Plus, it's not like Georgia State wasn't battle-tested before the tournament. The Panthers ranked 67th in KenPom's Pythagorean nonconference strength of schedule, compared to 116th for Xavier.

Ron Hunter's team also plays excellent defense, as evidenced by the 21 turnovers forced against Baylor, which is going to make things difficult for Xavier.

The Musketeers are more talented, but their win over Ole Miss skews things because the Rebels were running on fumes with a depleted roster and playing 48 hours after that miracle comeback against BYU. 

In a tournament already filled with upsets, having UAB and Georgia State playing on the second weekend feels appropriate. 

The D'Angelo Russell Show Ends (Sadly)

Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

The other game on the schedule where it was tempting to pick an upset is Ohio State over Arizona. Pulling the trigger wasn't something I could wholly justify, because the Wildcats are as deep as anyone, with size and shooting unmatched by most teams outside of Kentucky. 

However, the Buckeyes will have the best player on the court in D'Angelo Russell. He was a shining star among a group of passive observers during Ohio State's win against VCU, scoring 28 points on 10-of-20 shooting and grabbing six rebounds. 

Per ESPN Stats & Info, Russell joined exclusive company with that scoring barrage:

In basketball, more than any other sport, one great player can take his team far. It helps to have the right supporting cast, but there have been many cases where a one-man wrecking crew has carried everyone else on his back. 

Russell is that kind of talent, playing his best basketball at a time when Ohio State desperately needs it, but the competition completely changes when you go from VCU to Arizona. 

Specifically, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is a superior defensive player to anyone VCU was putting on Russell. The Arizona star is listed as a forward at 6'7"and 220 pounds, but he's got the speed and shooting touch of a guard. 

As ESPN's Chad Ford noted on Twitter, Russell could vault into serious consideration for the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft if he repeats his effort with Hollis-Jefferson guarding him:

And even if Russell plays out of his mind, which isn't impossible, how many points will the other Buckeyes contribute against an Arizona starting lineup that features four starters who are at least 6'7"?

It will be a closer game than it initially seemed when the brackets were first announced, but Arizona will hold serve to make its third straight appearance in the Sweet 16.