NCAA Brackets 2015: Picks, Odds Advice, Schedule After Thursday's Round 2 Games

Was that good for you?

It's hard to imagine how the 2015 NCAA tournament could've kicked off the second round with a better day of games. Both Iowa State and Baylor—No. 3 seeds—were upset, with the Cyclones and Bears squandering late leads en route to embarrassing exits.

In addition, one point meant the difference in five games on Thursday, which set an NCAA tournament record, per CBS Sports.

Here's a look at the bracket after Day 1.

Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller and Stephen Nelson went over some of their biggest winners and losers from the second round so far.

If Friday's games feature even half the drama that Thursday's did, college basketball fans will be in for a great ride.

Round 2 Schedule 

Time (ET)	Matchup	TV Info	Line	Pick
12:15 p.m.	No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 15 New Mexico State	CBS	Kansas (-10.5)	Kansas
12:40 p.m.	No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Georgia	TruTV	Michigan State (-6)	Michigan State
1:40 p.m.	No. 5 Northern Iowa vs. No. 12 Wyoming	TBS	Northern Iowa (-6.5)	Wyoming
2:10 p.m.	No. 5 West Virginia vs. No. 12 Buffalo	TNT	West Virginia (-4.5)	West Virginia
2:45 p.m.	No. 7 Wichita State vs. No. 10 Indiana	CBS	Wichita State (-6)	Wichita State
3:10 p.m.	No. 2 Virginia vs. No. 15 Belmont	TruTV	Virginia (-17)	Virginia
4:10 p.m.	No. 4 Louisville vs. No. 13 UC Irvine	TBS	Louisville (-8)	Louisville
4:40 p.m.	No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 13 Valparaiso	TNT	Maryland (-4.5)	Valparaiso
6:50 p.m.	No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Oklahoma State	TBS	Oregon (-2)	Oklahoma State
7:10 p.m.	No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Robert Morris	CBS	Duke (-22.5)	Duke
7:20 p.m.	No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Davidson	TNT	Iowa (-2)	Davidson
7:27 p.m.	No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Albany	TruTV	Oklahoma (-13)	Oklahoma
9:20 p.m.	No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 16 Coastal Carolina	TBS	Wisconsin (-20)	Wisconsin
9:40 p.m.	No. 8 San Diego State vs. No. 9 St. John's	CBS	San Diego State (-4)	San Diego State
9:50 p.m.	No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 15 North Dakota State	TNT	Gonzaga (-18)	Gonzaga
9:57 p.m.	No. 6 Providence vs. No. 11 Dayton	TruTV	Providence (-3)	Dayton

Odds Advice

Couple Baylor and Iowa State's losses with close wins for Notre Dame, North Carolina and Arkansas, and some might be panicking about betting against the lower-seeded teams.

March Madness is so named for a reason, and the gulf between the perceived elite teams and mid-majors is only growing smaller. Is Thursday the new normal?

That panic would be premature, at least for the large majority of top-four seeds in action on Friday. It's unlikely that we'll see anything similar to Georgia State or UAB's triumphs, in part because among the eight teams seeded No. 4 or higher playing Friday, five are either a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.

As everybody is well aware, no No. 1 seed has ever lost its first game in the NCAA tournament, while No. 2 seeds boast a 94.2 percent all-time success rate, according to The Washington Post. Teams seeded third and fourth don't have quite the track record, but neither has tasted defeat all that often.

Below is a breakdown for how many teams seeded fourth or higher have advanced out of the opening round since 2001.

Year	No. 1 Seeds	No. 2 Seeds	No. 3 Seeds	No. 4 Seeds
2001	4	3	4	2
2002	4	4	4	3
2003	4	4	4	3
2004	4	4	4	4
2005	4	4	3	3
2006	4	4	3	3
2007	4	4	4	4
2008	4	4	4	2
2009	4	4	4	3
2010	4	4	3	3
2011	4	4	4	3
2012	4	2	4	3
2013	4	3	3	3
2014	4	4	3	4
Overall (Out of 56)	56	53	51	43

As you can see, the general norm is for two, potentially three, of the eight top overall teams to fall in their first game. We've already seen two eliminated, and recent history says that we're about at our limit heading into Friday's games.

The one matchup that will have the most intrigue in terms of upset potential will be No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 13 Valparaiso.

Only three times since 2001 have all four No. 4 seeds advanced, and the Terrapins look a little more vulnerable than the Louisville Cardinals, in large part because of how lucky they've been heading into the NCAA tournament.

According to KenPom.com, the Terps rank first in "Luck." Ken Pomeroy provides an explanation for how he determines the "Luck" rankings:

"

A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).

"

Neil Greenberg of The Washington Post analyzed recent trends with regard to how the luckiest team in the tournament performed. He found that the teams ranked highest in the "Luck" category lost in in their first game 11 out of the last 13 years.

Greenberg also dug a little deeper to see how the luckiest teams among the top-four seeds fared, and the results were only slightly better. Six made it past the second round.

Sometimes, it is better to be lucky than good, but that's not generally true in the NCAA tournament. Teams like Maryland that rely on a little divine intervention are often among the first to go.

Also, consider that the Crusaders rank 28th in adjusted defense, according to KenPom.com. They're a tough unit to break down, and in sophomore Alec Peters, they have a scorer who can change a game all on his own.

If you're looking for that next major surprise, then consider Valpo for the upset.

Although Virginia shouldn't necessarily be on upset alert, it will be interesting to see if the Cavs can cover.

There is the big question surrounding how healthy Justin Anderson will be. He returned for the ACC tournament but played just 26 minutes in two games and failed to score. According to The Associated Press (via ESPN.com), the junior's repaired pinkie finger is feeling better:

"

Anderson said Thursday he's pain-free and "ready to rock and roll" beginning Friday against 15th-seeded Belmont.

"It's really good," Anderson said while holding out his left hand, which had the left pinkie and ring finger taped together. "I got an week extra for it to heal, and it feels really good."

"

If Anderson is below 100 percent, that could limit the Cavaliers' effectiveness on the offensive end, which might allow Belmont a puncher's chance.

Against six teams with an RPI between 100 and 150—the Bruins are 105th—UVA won by an average of 16.7 points, and that number is somewhat skewed by its 70-34 victory over Wake Forest.

Perhaps more pertinent to the line is that four of those six wins came by 16 points or fewer, which is still lower than the line between Virginia and Belmont.

Virginia's methodical pace is somewhat conducive to letting lesser teams stay within striking distance for an entire game, so don't be surprised if the Bruins are somewhere within 10 and 15 points of the Cavaliers at the final buzzer.

Note: Betting lines are courtesy of Odds Shark.