What the Latest Formula 1 Odds Tell Us About Battle at Front of the Grid
Mercedes may look set to run away with both the drivers' and constructors' championships, but the battle at the front of the grid in the 2015 Formula One season should be far more compelling than 2014.
Last year, Red Bull Racing and Williams only tended to emerge as the best of the rest when a given circuit suited the individual characteristics of their cars.
While the Red Bull RB10 was strong on the technical, twistier tracks but often nowhere to be seen at the high-speed venues, the Williams FW36 was supreme when it came to straight-line speed but usually found wanting in terms of direction change.
Their differences meant neither really emerged as a consistent, week-in-week-out threat to Mercedes, which only emphasised the Silver Arrows' dominance over the rest of the field.
But with Ferrari making a huge leap forward over the winter, and with Williams and Red Bull sure to have made improvements—although in the case of the latter, we are yet to see genuine evidence of them on track—the fight behind Mercedes should be a great source of intrigue.
And after the season-opening Australian Grand Prix, here's what the latest bookmakers' odds tell us about the state of play at the sharp end of the field, from the world title battles to the all-important fight for third.
Mercedes Already Have the Constructors' Title in the Bag
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Mercedes were the overwhelming favourites for the 2015 constructors' championship even prior to the start of the season, with their dominant display at the Australian Grand Prix only increasing that feeling.
The Silver Arrows are generally priced at 1-100 to retain their crown and, even after one race, it's difficult to argue with those odds.
The Mercedes W06 Hybrid was stunningly quick at Albert Park, especially in the hands of Lewis Hamilton, who breezed to pole position, qualifying 0.6 seconds ahead of team-mate Nico Rosberg and a frightening 1.4 seconds in front of Felipe Massa, the quickest non-Mercedes driver (as per the official Formula 1 website).
Mercedes' pace advantage was reinforced in the grand prix itself, as Hamilton and Rosberg pulled away from the opposition at will and the race winner, according to Formula 1 website, crossed the finish line 34.523 seconds ahead of third-placed Sebastian Vettel.
And just to rub it in, Hamilton's fastest lap of the race, set on medium tyres, was 0.481 seconds quicker than the fastest non-Mercedes time set by Kimi Raikkonen—as per the official FIA data—despite the Ferrari's use of the theoretically faster soft compound.
Extremely comfortable at the front of the field and seemingly on top of the reliability issues which prevented the team from being even more dominant in 2014, it is no surprise the bookies regard Mercedes as the champions in waiting.
Shall we just hand them the trophy now?
Lewis Hamilton the Clear Favourite for Drivers' Title
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Lewis Hamilton's win in Australia was his sixth win in the last seven races, stretching back to last September's Italian Grand Prix.
He has now recorded a dozen victories in the last 12 months, and the bookies have recognised the British driver's career-best form by installing Hamilton as the clear favourite for the 2015 drivers' championship with odds at a typical 1-3.
Given Mercedes' aforementioned performance advantage over the rest of the field, it was widely expected the drivers' battle would once again be a two-horse race between Hamilton and Nico Rosberg.
But the German's chances, having been outclassed in every department at Albert Park, have taken a hit with Rosberg now widely available at 5-2.
Although the 29-year-old's worst-case scenario, it seems, is a second-place finish in the drivers' standings—Sebastian Vettel, currently the third-favourite for the title, has a best price of 16-1—Rosberg has to make a fairly substantial leap in performance if he is to challenge Hamilton in 2015.
Advantage Vettel in the Fight for 3rd
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With the top-two spots in the drivers' standings almost certain to be locked out by the Mercedes drivers, the fight for third is where the interest lies in 2015.
The Ferraris of Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen, the Williams' of Valtteri Bottas and Felipe Massa and the Red Bulls of Daniel Ricciardo and Daniil Kvyat would have all entered the campaign targeting the best-of-the-rest spot.
And after his podium finish in the Australian GP, it is currently Vettel who holds the advantage in that almighty scrap, with Ferrari's new hero generally priced at 20-1 for the title.
Curiously, Bottas remains next in line with odds at a typical 50-1, despite missing the season opener with a back injury and with his participation in the Malaysian GP still uncertain.
Although the Finnish driver's odds took a hit due to his non-participation at Albert Park—he was generally priced at 25-1 after qualifying sixth in Australia—the fact that Bottas, in the bookies' eyes, remains the biggest threat to Vettel for third is indicative of just how highly rated the Williams youngster is.
Meanwhile, Kvyat, Vettel's replacement at Red Bull, is the big outsider in the six-way battle after also failing to start in Australia, with the Russian now placed at a typical 250-1 for the title.
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Ferrari a One-Man Team, but Should Still Beat Williams, Red Bull
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Ferrari are one of just two teams to have an all-champion driver lineup in 2015, but you wouldn't have guessed it by glancing at the odds for the drivers' championship.
While Vettel, the four-time world champion, is the third-favourite to take the crown with odds in the region of 20-1, 2007 title winner Kimi Raikkonen, rather surprisingly, is regarded as the seventh-favourite, generally priced at around 50-1.
The reasons behind the bookies' stance on the Ferrari pairing is difficult to understand, particularly after an Australian GP in which Vettel and Raikkonen were evenly matched—they were separated by just 0.033 seconds in qualifying, as per the Formula 1 website—until they made contact at the first corner.
Despite being the oldest driver on the grid (and, whisper it, a fading force), Raikkonen, 35, remains extremely fast on his day, and the inter-team battle may not be as one-sided as the gulf in odds may suggest.
But even if Ferrari throw all their weight behind Vettel, their marquee signing, and effectively operate as a one-man team as they did in the days of Michael Schumacher and Fernando Alonso, the Prancing Horse—in the eyes of the bookies—should still have enough to secure the runner-up spot in the constructors' standings.
The Italian team are second-favourites to win the championship at a typical 20-1, while Williams and Red Bull—their likely challenges for the runner-up spot behind Mercedes—are priced in the region of 40-1 and 66-1, respectively.
Red Bull in Big Trouble Heading into Malaysia
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Red Bull had a weekend to forget in Australia.
Daniil Kvyat was eliminated from Q2 and then failed to make the start after his car broke down en route to the grid, while Daniel Ricciardo, arguably the star performer of 2014, could only qualify seventh before finishing the race a lap down in sixth.
With the team's discontent with Renault, their engine supplier, clear to see, it would not be hyperbolic to suggest that Red Bull are a team in crisis heading into the Malaysian Grand Prix.
And the bookies have reflected that in their odds, predicting that the Milton Keynes-based team will be nothing more than mere points scorers at Sepang.
Ricciardo is the seventh-favourite to win in Malaysia with odds as short as 40-1, while the shortest odds available for sixth-favourite Felipe Massa are 22-1, highlighting Red Bull's current deficit not only to Mercedes but the Ferrari-Williams scrap.
Eighth-favourite Kvyat, meanwhile, is in no-man's land, with his chances of victory more typical of a midfield competitor at around 150/1. To put that into perspective, Sauber driver Felipe Nasr—the next in line for victory at Sepang, according to the bookies—is generally available at 500-1.
Red Bull, so accustomed to being in a class of their own as they won four consecutive world titles between 2010 and 2013, are in isolation once again at the beginning of 2015.
But this time, the bookies are in agreement that the team are miles from where they want to be.
All odds featured in this article are taken from comparison website Oddschecker and are correct at the time of writing.
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