NCAA Tournament: March Madness 1st-Round Predictions
What time is it?
It's time to put the House of Cards binge-watching on hold for a couple of weeks.
It's time for the girl at work who made her picks based on her favorite mascots to take your money.
It's time for every sports columnist to come out of the woodwork to write a predictions columnfollowed by the inevitable convenient alibi article when said predictions fail miserably.
Yes, for college basketball fanatics, gambling buffs, procrastinators and prognosticators alike, we've reached the most wonderful time of the year (unless you're a business owner; then, not so much).
The first round is often the craziest of the Madness, where the upsets can come fast and furious. Will there be any bracket busters this time around? With a nod to Kentucky's run thus far, check out the following attempt at tourney perfection, with lines courtesy of Sports Information Traders.
First Round, by the Numbers
No. 1 vs. No. 16 Seed Matchups: First seed wins 100 percent
No. 2 vs. No. 15 Seed Matchups: Second seed wins 94.2 percent
No. 3 vs. No. 14 Seed Matchups: Third seed wins 85 percent
No. 4 vs. No. 13 Seed Matchups: Fourth seed wins 79.2 percent
No. 5 vs. No. 12 Seed Matchups: Fifth seed wins 66.4 percent
No. 6 vs. No. 11 Seed Matchups: Sixth seed wins 66.4 percent
No. 7 vs. No. 10 Seed Matchups: Seventh seed wins 60.4 percent
No. 8 vs. No. 9 Seed Matchups: Eighth seed wins 52.1 percent
All game times are Eastern Daylight Time.
No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 16 Lafayette
1 of 32
Opening Line: Villanova -22.5
March 19, 6:50 p.m.
The No. 1-seeded Villanova Wildcats simply outmatch Lafayette and will look to keep the momentum rolling after claiming the Big East tournament title over Xavier. Villanova is playing great basketball at the right time, led by a backcourt of Ryan Arcidiacono and Darrun Hilliard. It advances easily.
Outright winner: Villanova
No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 16 Coastal Carolina
2 of 32
Opening Line: Wisconsin -19
March 20, 9:20 p.m.
Wisconsin looks to be one of the stronger teams heading into the tournament, one with legit national championship hopes. The Badgers will face a Coastal Carolina team that has only one win over a quality opponent this year, and that was at Auburn. There's no reason this game should be close, as the Badgers once again tote college basketball's most efficient offense, led by Wooden Award favorite Frank Kaminsky.
Outright Winner: Wisconsin
No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 16 Hampton
3 of 32
Opening Line: Kentucky -31
March 19, 9:40 p.m.
Hampton beat Manhattan in the First Four of this year's tournament, but unfortunately for the Pirates, they run into a brick wall next in the form of Kentucky. The Wildcats are the heavy favorite to cut down the nets in Indianapolis and claim the championship crown. Doing so would make them the first team since Indiana in the 1975-76 season to go undefeated throughout the regular season and tournament. They win easily.
Outright Winner: Kentucky
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No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Robert Morris
4 of 32
Opening Line: Duke -22
March 20, 7:10 p.m.
Notre Dame upset Duke in the ACC tournament semifinals, but despite that loss, it is still primed to make another deep run in the tournament with a talented group led by legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski. The Blue Devils should stroll to the next round.
Outright Winner: Duke
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Texas Southern
5 of 32
Opening Line: Arizona -23
March 19, 2:10 p.m.
Texas Southern has two wins this year against solid competition: Michigan State and Kansas State. But neither of those two teams could prepare the Tigers for what they'll face in the No. 2-seeded Arizona Wildcats. Arizona will look to make some noise in this year's tournament and should cruise in the opening round.
Outright Winner: Arizona
No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 15 New Mexico State
6 of 32
Opening Line: Kansas -11.5
March 20, 12:15 p.m.
This is the fourth straight year New Mexico State has punched its ticket to the Big Dance but still no wins to show for it. The Jayhawks are led by leading scorer Perry Ellis, who averaged 13.8 points per game this season. Kansas is fresh off a loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament title game, and this game could be comparatively close for a No. 2 vs. No. 15, but expect Kansas to squeeze past the Aggies.
Outright Winner: Kansas
No. 2 Virginia vs. No. 15 Belmont
7 of 32
Opening Line: Virginia -16.5
March 20, 3:10 p.m.
The Cavaliers were headed for a No. 1 seed before they were derailed by North Carolina in the ACC tournament semifinals, pushing them back to No. 2. They'll face a Belmont team that got hot to end its season, as it claimed the Ohio Valley Conference tournament title in an upset over Murray State. Virginia is too talented and boasts the best defense in college basketball this year; look for an easy Cavs win as they look to make a run at the Final Four.
Outright Winner: Virginia
No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 15 North Dakota State
8 of 32
Opening Line: Gonzaga -17.5
March 20, 9:50 p.m.
Gonzaga is obviously no stranger to the tournament, as the Zags punched their ticket for their 18th NCAA tournament appearance. North Dakota State reached the tournament as a No. 15 seed by winning the Summit League this year. Gonzaga features the West Coast Conference Player of the Year, Kevin Pangos, who averaged 11.5 points and five assists per game this season while also demonstrating a great three-point shot by hitting at a rate of 44.4 percent from beyond the arc. Gonzaga is too experienced and too good.
Outright Winner: Gonzaga
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 University of Alabama-Birmingham
9 of 32
Opening Line: Iowa State -13.5
March 19, 12:40 p.m.
UAB, the 14th seed, is fresh off its first Conference USA title in school history and will go up against a Cyclones squad led by forward Georges Niang, who averages 15.5 points per game while also hitting at an impressive 40.2 percent clip from beyond the arc. On the other side, UAB only features one player who averages double figures in scoring—guard Robert Brown at 13.1 points per game. The Blazers are no strangers to the tournament, as this will be their 15th trip to the Big Dance, but they go up against an even more experienced Cyclones team that should get past UAB in the round of 64.
Outright Winner: Iowa State
No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 14 Northeastern
10 of 32
Opening Line: Notre Dame -12
March 19, 12:15 p.m.
The Fighting Irish are coming off an impressive ACC tournament showing where they upset Duke in the semifinals on the way to claiming the title. They'll face Northeastern, which also won its conference, the Colonial Athletic Association, punching a ticket to the tournament for the first time since 1991. Do-it-all senior guard Jerian Grant leads Notre Dame in points (16.8), assists (6.6) and steals (1.7) per contest this season. Look for Notre Dame to have too much firepower for Northeastern to keep up.
Outright Winner: Notre Dame
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 Georgia State
11 of 32
Opening Line: Baylor -8
March 19, 1:40 p.m.
Baylor makes its second consecutive tournament appearance for the first time in school history, but it also enters with big aspirations as a No. 3 seed. The Bears will take on the Panthers, who won the Sun Belt Conference to land their tourney bid. Georgia State gets big contributions from R.J. Hunter, who averages 19.8 points a game, but it'll have a tough time against a Baylor team that averages 72 points per game while holding opponents to slightly more than 60.
Outright Winner: Baylor
No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Albany
12 of 32
Opening Line: Oklahoma -13
March 20, 7:27 p.m.
Oklahoma's edge in this matchup is clearly its stingy defense that went from a poor group last year to one of the best in the nation this season. The Sooners will meet Albany, tourney participants for the third consecutive time. Oklahoma features the Big 12 Player of the Year, guard Buddy Hield, and will look to redeem itself from last year's second-round upset at the hands of North Dakota State.
Outright Winner: Oklahoma
No. 4 Louisville vs. No. 13 UC Irvine
13 of 32
Opening Line: Louisville -9
March 20, 4:10 p.m.
Rick Pitino is as good of a coach come March Madness time as any other in college basketball, and he'll certainly have his talented squad ready to play. While his team this year is not quite as talented as some from years past, Pitino knows how to win in the tournament and will be poised to have his team back in the Final Four once again this year. It'll start with a cakewalk in the second round.
Outright Winner: Louisville
No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 13 Harvard
14 of 32
Opening Line: North Carolina -10
March 19, 7:20 p.m.
Harvard has shown well for an Ivy League team in recent NCAA tournaments, as it has won in the round of 64 in each of the past two years. However, this version isn't quite as talented as those teams and will run into a North Carolina team that's playing good ball at the right time of year, as the Tar Heels made it to the ACC tournament final. Look for them to rebound from that last loss to Notre Dame and get past Harvard.
Outright Winner: North Carolina
No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 13 Valparaiso
15 of 32
Opening Line: Maryland -4.5
March 20, 4:40 p.m.
Maryland was a strong team at times this year and receives its 25th bid to the tournament in school history. The Terrapins are also familiar with success in the tournament, as they've reached the Final Four twice since 2002, the year they won it all. They will avoid the upset to Valpo in the second round.
Outright Winner: Maryland
No. 4 Georgetown vs. No. 13 Eastern Washington
16 of 32
Opening Line: Georgetown -8.5
March 19, 9:55 p.m.
The Hoyas have been upset by lower-seeded teams in their last four NCAA tournament appearances. They'll face Eastern Washington, which has a victory against Indiana as the biggest notch on its resume. This is a popular upset pick for many, but Georgetown has to eventually come to play, so perhaps the fifth time's a charm?
Outright Winner: Georgetown
No. 5 Northern Iowa vs. No. 12 Wyoming
17 of 32
Opening Line: Northern Iowa -7
March 20, 1:40 p.m.
These are two teams with similar styles of play, as they both like to slow the tempo on offense and play very aggressive defense. They also feature star players at the forward position as their main centerpieces. The one edge that sticks out in this game is that Northern Iowa's offense is more effective than that of Wyoming, as its adjusted offensive efficiency is ranked 14th compared to only 178th in the country for the Cowboys, according to KenPom.com. Despite that, Northern Iowa will still need to play hard to avoid an upset.
Outright Winner: Northern Iowa
No. 5 Utah vs. No. 12 Stephen F. Austin
18 of 32
Opening Line: Utah -6.5
March 19, 7:27 p.m.
The Utes backed their way into the tournament this year, as they lost four of their last seven games to end the season. Stephen F. Austin finds itself as a No. 12 seed for the second year in a row and will try to repeat last year's success, as it pulled the upset over No. 5 seed VCU. The school features the leading scorer of the two teams, guard Thomas Walkup, as he helped lead the Lumberjacks to 79.5 points per game this year—one of the top scoring teams in college basketball. So yes, 18 slides in, and we have our first upset special!
Outright Winner: Stephen F. Austin
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 Wofford
19 of 32
Opening Line: Arkansas -7
March 19, 9:50 p.m.
Wofford had its most successful season in school history, as it won both the Southern Conference regular season and finished off the year by claiming the crown in the conference tournament as well. It's the second year in a row getting back to the Madness, where it'll take on the Razorbacks, who are coming off a loss to undefeated Kentucky in the SEC championship game. Arkansas and SEC Player of the Year Bobby Portis will be too much to handle.
Outright Winner: Arkansas
No. 5 West Virginia vs. No. 12 Buffalo
20 of 32
Opening Line: West Virginia -4.5
March 20, 2:10 p.m.
Buffalo is led by junior forward Justin Moss, who averaged 17.7 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. It will go against fifth-seeded West Virginia, coached by Bob Huggins, who has a 27-20 record in tournament play. The two teams enter this game going in different directions, as the Mountaineers have lost three of their last four games while the Bulls are on an eight-game winning streak. It says here that it'll become nine in an upset win.
Outright Winner: Buffalo
No. 6 Butler vs. No. 11 Texas
21 of 32
Opening Line: Butler -1.5
March 19, 2:45 p.m.
Texas reaches the NCAA tournament for the 16th time in the last 17 years, but it’ll come in as the 11th seed this time around. Butler is also no stranger to the tournament, as the Bulldogs have made it seven of the last nine years, with a couple of Final Fours to boot. Both teams field strong defenses, and the Longhorns lead the nation in blocks this year with 7.9 per game. Texas and guard Isaiah Taylor will give Butler as much as it can handle and just get by in a close contest.
Outright Winner: Texas
No. 6 Xavier vs. No. 11 Ole Miss
22 of 32
Opening Line: Xavier -2
March 19, 4:10 p.m.
Xavier was a surprise No. 6 seed after a 9-9 finish in the Big East, plus some questionable losses to UTEP, Auburn and Long Beach State. Regardless of the seeding, it does have the talent to win a game or two in this year’s tournament.
Senior center Matt Stainbrook will lead the charge inside, where he averaged 12 points and 6.8 rebounds. An upset to an Ole Miss team that made a big second-half comeback to advance past BYU in this year’s opening round is possible, but it says here Xavier finds a way to advance.
Outright Winner: Xavier
No. 6 Providence vs. No. 11 Dayton
23 of 32
Opening Line: N/A
March 20, 9:57 p.m.
The Friars vs. the Flyers. It has a nice ring to it! Providence boasts the nation’s highest scorer in college basketball this season, LaDontae Henton, who should be just the boost it needs to advance to the next round. However, it will go against a Dayton squad that battled past Boise State in the opening round and is fresh off an Elite Eight appearance last season. That said, Providence's strong inside game and fairly deep talent could really make some noise in this tournament.
Outright Winner: Providence
No. 6 Southern Methodist vs. No. 11 UCLA
24 of 32
Opening Line: SMU -2
March 19, 3:10 p.m.
SMU punched its ticket to the Big Dance for the first time since 1993, as it won the American Athletic Conference title. Facing it is a UCLA team that was a bubble team who fell into the No. 11 seed. The Bruins do average a solid 72 points per contest, but SMU is a very strong team that arguably could have garnered a higher seed.
Outright Winner: SMU
No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Davidson
25 of 32
Opening Line: Iowa -1.5
March 20, 7:20 p.m.
Davidson won the Atlantic 10 regular-season crown with one of the best offensive teams in the country as it averages nearly 80 points per game and shoots just over 47 percent from the field (alum Stephen Curry should be proud).
Iowa is back in the tournament after losing in the first round last year. Davidson is 8-13 in the NCAA tournament and has been known to put up a solid fight against superior competition, but the Hawkeyes will bounce back strong after losing to Penn State in the Big 10 conference tournament.
Outright Winner: Iowa
No. 7 Virginia Commonwealth vs. No. 10 Ohio State
26 of 32
Opening Line: VCU -2
March 19, 4:40 p.m.
Ohio State is led by freshman phenom D’Angelo Russell, who averaged 19.3 points per game this season while also leading the team in rebounds with 5.6. VCU is known for its suffocating full-court defense and press and averages 9.3 steals per game. If Ohio State can break VCU’s defensive press—and it says here it can—look for the Buckeyes to pull the minor upset.
Outright Winner: Ohio State
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Georgia
27 of 32
Opening Line: Michigan State -5
March 20, 12:40 p.m.
The Spartans reach their 18th consecutive NCAA tournament, which ties a Big 10 record. They’ll meet the Bulldogs in the opening round, who are 5-9 all time in their previous NCAA tournament appearances. There's just too much experience from Michigan State and coach Tom Izzo. Michigan State adds a win to its 59-27 all-time record in the tournament and advances.
Outright Winner: Michigan State
No. 7 Wichita State vs. No. 10 Indiana
28 of 32
Opening Line: Wichita State -5.5
March 20, 2:45 p.m.
Wichita State has been on a mini-roll lately, with a No. 1 seed last year and a trip to the Final Four the year prior. Up first against the Shockers this time are the Hoosiers, who had one of the best offenses in college basketball this season, averaging 77.5 points per game. Indiana has had success in the tournament in years past under coach Tom Crean but limped into this dance by losing four of its last five. Not much of a shock here as Wichita State moves on.
Outright Winner: Wichita State
No. 8 North Carolina State vs. No. 9 Louisiana State
29 of 32
Opening Line: North Carolina State -1.5
March 19, 9:20 p.m.
Both teams here have some exceptional talent, but both also showed signs of inconsistency at times this season. This game should be a fun one to watch with two evenly matched teams, and expect this one to come down to the final minutes. NC State is more battle tested and edges past the Tigers in a good game.
Outright Winner: North Carolina State
No. 8 Cincinnati vs. No. 9 Purdue
30 of 32
Opening Line: Cincinnati -1.5
March 19, 7:10 p.m
The Bearcats enter this year’s tournament after losing in the opening round the last two seasons; they’ll look to change that trend as they take on ninth-seeded Purdue, who conversely has not lost a first-round game since 1993, totaling 14 consecutive wins during that span.
This will be a matchup of two big men: Octavius Ellis for Cincinnati and A.J. Hammons for Purdue. Another close contest, as a No. 8 vs. No. 9 would figure to be, but the edge goes to Cincy.
Outright Winner: Cincinnati
No. 8 San Diego State vs. No. 9 St. John’s
31 of 32
Opening Line: SDSU -2
March 20, 9:40 p.m.
The Aztecs made an appearance in the Sweet 16 last year and will attempt to duplicate that success again, but it'll be no easy task as they’ll have to get past the Red Storm and senior guard D’Angelo Harrison, who averaged 17.5 points per game.
SDSU can match up as it sports the second-ranked defense in the country by allowing only 53.1 points per contest. Everyone plays tougher defense in the tournament, but the Aztecs have proved to be inept at scoring for most of the year. St. John’s prevails.
Outright Winner: St. John’s
No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Oklahoma State
32 of 32
Opening Line: Pick
March 20, 6:50 p.m.
Oregon enters the tournament with some momentum as winners in seven of eight, with the only loss being in the Pac-12 championship game. It'll face an Oklahoma State team that’s faltered down the stretch, losing six of seven. Oregon touts one of the best offenses in the country, averaging 75.6 points per game and led by senior guard Joseph Young, who was responsible for over 20 of those. One team is clearly hitting its stride, while the other is reaching the end of its road.
Outright Winner: Oregon
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