NCAA Tournament 2015: Breaking Down Difficult Picks and Title Odds

Filling out a bracket for the NCAA men's basketball tournament is one of the most exciting things a sports fan does all year, but it's also a painful task.

Of course, there are certain games that require no thought—usually anything involving a No. 1 seed vs. a No. 16 seed—but those are few and far between.

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Filling out a bracket has become an even more difficult task lately because of how many surprise teams have made deep runs. If you knew the Connecticut Huskies were going to win the national title or that the Dayton Flyers would make the Elite Eight last year, there was probably a nice prize waiting for you when the tournament ended.

As difficult as it was to predict the tournament in the past, it's become exponentially harder as the gap between the major and mid-major conferences has shrunk.

Leading up to the NCAA tournament, the final odds that are being released make it hard to pick a title contender that will provide dividends. Here's a look at the latest championship odds, along with a look at where the real value lies.

Team	Odds
Kentucky	6-5
Arizona	15-2
Wisconsin	17-2
Duke	9-1
Villanova	10-1
Virginia	10-1
Gonzaga	16-1
Notre Dame	25-1
Iowa State	33-1
Utah	33-1
Kansas	40-1
Michigan State	40-1
North Carolina	40-1
Baylor	50-1
Oklahoma	50-1
Wichita State	50-1
Louisville	66-1
Maryland	66-1
Northern Iowa	66-1
Arkansas	100-1

Odds for every tournament team can be found at OddsShark.com.

Best Value: Michigan State (40-1)

Whatever head coach Tom Izzo does in March should be applied to the rest of the season. Michigan State was asleep at the wheel during the regular season, putting together enough of a resume to ensure its spot in the tournament but not looking like a Final Four threat. 

Then came the Big Ten tournament. After defeating Maryland in the semifinals, the Spartans improved their March record to an astounding 86-37 since 1998, per Chris Solari of the Lansing State Journal:

The Spartans had Wisconsin—which garnered a No. 1 seed—on the ropes in the Big Ten tournament final before the Badgers made a late surge in the second half and dominated overtime. Even in defeat, Izzo's team won a lot of fans.

Rob Dauster of NBC Sports highlighted all of the things that make Michigan State dangerous in this tournament:

"

The Spartans have had a painfully up-and-down season, but anyone that saw their performance in the Big Ten title games against Wisconsin knows how good this group can be when they get it going. Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine are both liable to pop off for 25-30 points, and when Branden Dawson is dialed in, there aren’t ten power forwards in the country that are better than him.

"

Peaking at the right time is more important than a team's overall record. The Spartans are also playing in a region that looks vulnerable. Villanova is the No. 1 seed in the East Region. The Wildcats are capable of spreading the floor and shooting with a deep stable of guards, but they lack size, which will hurt against physical teams.

Virginia enters the tournament as a mess, especially with questions surrounding star Justin Anderson, who went scoreless in two ACC tournament games. Oklahoma is an inconsistent group, with wins over Kansas and Iowa State offset by losses against Creighton and Washington.

Providence has the potential to be a dangerous No. 6 seed with two excellent scorers in LaDontae Henton and Kris Dunn, but the Friars lack the depth needed against high-quality competition. 

Even though Michigan State has gone through various patches when offense has been hard to come by, Izzo has a knack for maximizing his talent in March. Pair that with a winnable bracket against teams like Georgia, Virginia, Oklahoma and Providence—and suddenly the Spartans look like an Elite Eight team.

At 40-1, those odds are too good for you not to expect Michigan State to do something in March.

Worst Value: Virginia (10-1)

It was tempting to put Kentucky and its 6-5 odds here, but such an overwhelming favorite is worthy of a look if it pays anything at all. By the process of elimination, Virginia becomes the worst value.

The Cavaliers have built a strong program based on defense under head coach Tony Bennett, capturing the ACC regular-season title this season. They were on the edge of a No. 1 seed for most of the year before losing to North Carolina in the ACC tournament semifinals.

Yet there's something about this team that is a turnoff in March. It's not even vague, as everyone knows Virginia can't score.

It finished the year ranked 225th in points per game and 26th in offensive efficiency, per KenPom.com.

Anderson was the only consistent shooter Virginia had during the regular season, but he will be entering the tournament without a point in five weeks, per Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports:

Injuries and an appendectomy kept Anderson out for eight games from February 11 through March 7, so his scoreless streak isn't all about missing shots. Missed shots were the key story in the conference tournament, though, as he played 26 minutes and went 0-of-6 from the field against Florida State and North Carolina. 

Bennett's defense can carry the Cavaliers against Belmont, but a potential third-round game against Michigan State has disaster written all over it.

Much of Virginia's success in this tournament will depend on Anderson getting his legs back under him. Until there's proof that this has happened, there's no reason to believe Virginia is one of the top five title contenders—as those 10-1 odds indicate the team is.

Sleeper Pick: Kansas (40-1)

Kentucky's presence is going to downgrade everyone else in its bracket, which is why Kansas has the worst odds of any No. 2 seed in the tournament at 40-1. It's also what makes the Jayhawks such an intriguing sleeper as the tournament's second round is set to begin Thursday.

The surface-level resume of Kansas—with eight losses—doesn't scream title threat, but when you look deeper, there are reasons to be excited.

According to the RPI rankings on ESPN.com, head coach Bill Self's team played the nation's most difficult schedule, with more wins (nine) against the RPI top 25 than anyone else in the country. 

Some of the losses are alarming—like a 32-point drubbing against Kentucky and a 25-point defeat against Temple—and should give fans some pause before they mark the Jayhawks down for a deep run. The team also needs Perry Ellis and Landen Lucas to be healthy, although it did come within four points of winning the Big 12 tournament even with those two hobbling.

Mike Hume of The Washington Post illuminated a few other reasons to be skeptical of Kansas in the tournament:

"

Just as worrisome as an overreliance on three-pointers is an over-reliance on free-throws … which is what plagues the 2015 Jayhawks. Nearly a quarter of KU’s points come from the foul line (24.5 percent), so a trio of refs with whistles lodged near their larynx could trip up the Jayhawks as much as a particularly pesky opponent.

"

Again, though, Kansas' resume is good, and this team has been through many battles against quality opponents. No one can intimidate it.

Ellis did return in the Big 12 tournament, showing rust in games against Baylor and Iowa State but getting enough playing time (56 minutes) to be ready for Friday.

There will be close calls, starting in the third round against the winner of the matchup between Wichita State and Indiana. If Kansas survives that battle, a possible showdown against Notre Dame in the Sweet 16 may spell the end.

Yet putting a talented team like Kansas with a proven coach like Self in the same realm as other skittish teams like Michigan State and North Carolina is disrespectful to what this team has accomplished this season.