March Madness 2015: Bracket Predictions, Odds Tips for Thursday Round 2 Schedule

After the last two days provided an appetizer for the NCAA tournament with the First Four games, the real thing finally gets underway on Thursday with more than 12 straight hours of action beginning at noon. While scrambling to finalize your brackets, there are some last-minute items to know. 

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There seems to be more consensus around this year's tournament than there has been recently. A lot of that can be attributed to Kentucky being everyone's favorite to win the title. Even the projection analysts at FiveThirtyEight.com gives the Wildcats a 41 percent chance to win the next six games. 

By comparison, Villanova has the second-highest chance to win the national championship at 11 percent. To say Kentucky is a prohibitive favorite would be one of the great understatements. 

As far as expectations for the tournament, here are my predictions for the Final Four and national championship, followed by some tips during today's games based on the odds. 

Round	Team(s)
Final Four	Midwest: Kentucky; East: Villanova; West: Baylor; South: Gonzaga
National Championship	Kentucky vs Gonzaga
Championship Game Winner	Kentucky Wildcats

All Eyes on No. 5 vs. No. 12

South Region: No. 5 Utah vs. No. 12 Stephen F. Austin

When starting to fill out your bracket, knowing that upsets are coming, the first thing to look at are the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchups. There are two on the schedule today, though only one seems to be generating serious upset buzz even though it looks like the wrong one. 

Per OddsShark, there's little doubt that at least one upset will occur in a No. 5 vs. No. 12 game based on recent history:

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Only once in the past 14 March Madness tournaments have the No. 5 seeds shut out the 12 seeds, and that was back in 2007. Most years, at least a pair of 12 seeds upset their neighbors at No. 5 in the bracket. And each of the past two seasons, three No. 12 seeds won outright to continue this hazardous pairing which busts many brackets.

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Stephen F. Austin, which will take on Utah, is generating a lot of late helium. The Lumberjacks are a very interesting team because they shoot and distribute well. CBS Sports' Seth Davis listed them as his Cinderella for this tournament:

Leaving aside the record, which doesn't count for much at this date, Stephen F. Austin has two legitimate stars who can carry the team. Thomas Walkup is an incredible guard who averages 15.7 points per game while shooting 57 percent from the floor. Jacob Parker provides the necessary backup with 14.1 points per game.

Utah is hardly a pushover, though there is a ceiling for the Utes that doesn't get talked about. Their only win over a ranked team this season was in overtime against Wichita State. 

However, as tempting as this upset would be to pick, there's a problem for Stephen F. Austin that was pointed out by Ben Estes of Sports Illustrated:

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The Lumberjacks rank so highly on offense thanks in part to their pressure man-to-man defense, through which they’ve created turnovers on nearly a quarter of their opponents’ possessions. The problem is that if they’re not creating turnovers, they’re almost certainly allowing the other team to score or get to the free throw line.

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To use a comparison involving the NFL, Stephen F. Austin is like the New Orleans Saints. It's a lot of fun to watch them when they have the ball, but when the Lumberjacks try to stop someone else from scoring, it's difficult to keep your eyes open. 

A defense that relies on turnovers to succeed is too volatile, especially against a quality opponent like Utah. Don't look for the No. 5 vs. No. 12 upset in this spot.

West Region: No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 Wofford

Instead, the focus should be on Wofford vs. Arkansas. Even though the Razorbacks boast the SEC Player of the Year in Bobby Portis, this is a deeply flawed team that will be leaving the tournament early. 

Defense, in particular, is a problem for Mike Anderson's team. They rank 78th in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom.com, so they are over-reliant on shooting well and scoring to win games. 

Wofford doesn't light the world on fire offensively, which is why pace will be so critical, as Jeff Borzello of ESPN noted on Twitter:

The Terriers like to keep things slow, whereas Arkansas needs to speed things up. The Razorbacks are more athletic and longer, though that can be said for most matchups involving major conference teams against mid-majors. 

Arkansas was just 6-5 in games in which it scored less than 70 points, so Wofford's best chance to win is to keep things slow and prevent the Razorbacks from running. That's what this team does best and will show it on Thursday in an upset victory. 

West Region: No. 6 Xavier vs. No. 11 Mississippi

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Even though Mississippi fought to get in the tournament, then needed a comeback win against BYU in the First Four game to secure a spot in the second round, the Rebels are entering their game against Xavier with a world of confidence. 

Ole Miss came back from 17 points down in the second half against BYU, scoring 62 in the final 20 minutes and changing expectations in the tournament. Granted, the Cougars don't play any defense at all, but a scorching shooting effort is still worthy of praise. 

According to OddsShark, Xavier will enter the game as a three-point favorite. It's not a significant margin, though it does disrespect what Mississippi has accomplished dating back to the regular season. 

As David Gardner of Sports Illustrated wrote after Ole Miss' comeback against BYU, this team can do what some were predicting the Cougars to do:

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Now the Rebels have the chance to bust the bracket the way we all thought BYU would. Ole Miss displayed poise and calm in this game, and although the comeback did feature some hero three-pointers from Moody, it was built more on halftime defensive adjustments, steals and smart shot selection. That formula can take you farther than a streak of three-point shooting can.

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Don't think that analysts are just buying Mississippi because of one incredible comeback against a solid BYU team. This is a team that gave Kentucky arguably its toughest test of the season on January 6, losing 89-86 at Rupp Arena in overtime. The Rebels shot 49 percent overall and 52.9 percent from three-point range. 

What happened against BYU wasn't an accident, as Mississippi proved it can do incredible things against the best competition college basketball has to offer. 

On the flip side, Xavier is a confusing No. 6 seed. If you want to put the Musketeers in the tournament, fine; but losing 13 games with four coming against teams outside the RPI Top 100 doesn't paint a sterling picture. 

There's also the problem Brian Hamilton of Sports Illustrated discussed with Xavier that would seem to play into Mississippi's hands:

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And then there’s their youth. [Trevon] Bluiett is a freshman. Myles Davis and [Jalen] Reynolds are just sophomores, with only a First Four loss to N.C. State last year under their belts as NCAA tournament experience. And while the defensive efficiency ranking is decent, Xavier often allows good looks; opponents are shooting 48.7% on two-point attempts, which places the Musketeers 230th nationally in that category.

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Xavier's inconsistencies, combined with the way Mississippi seems to rise up in spotlight games, makes this one of the most likely upsets to call. The Rebels can't afford to get behind like they did against BYU, but that's not really the way Xavier plays anyway.