UNC Basketball: Expectations for Each Starter in the Round of 64

The NCAA tournament has already kicked off with the first round pitting a few double-digit seeds against each other for the right to play in the real first round.

North Carolina's first game tips off Thursday evening against the Harvard Crimson, winner of the Ivy League playoff, also known as the play-in game. UNC has opened as a double-digit favorite per Odds Shark, but those figures mean almost nothing during March Madness.

The real key to advancing is execution, momentum and playing to your strengths. That's why Carolina is in good shape to advance past the round of 64. Here's how each Tar Heels starter is likely to fare.

Marcus Paige

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It's been hard to figure Marcus Paige out this season. He's been up and down and back again numerous times.

In an early-season string of games against East Carolina, Kentucky, UNC Greensboro and Ohio State, Paige scored eight, 14, five and 16 points, respectively. The odd thing is, the two high-scoring games were against UK and OSU, while he struggled against the "easy" teams.

This type of production continued throughout conference play, and it makes predicting Paige's NCAA tournament contribution difficult.

Normally on the negative side of this argument would be Harvard's stellar defense. The Crimson had the nation's 12th-best scoring defense and a top-10 unit in terms of opponent rebounding and opponent field goals.

Perhaps, though, that plays into Paige's hands of producing against harder foes.

He also likes to come up big in big spots. There is no bigger spot than the Big Dance. Even with the injuries and shooting slumps and criticism, it's hard to predict anything but a stellar game for Paige here.

J.P Tokoto

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J.P. Tokoto has a chance to shine this postseason. His scoring has been down recently—he only managed a total of 21 points in the entirety of the ACC tournament—but North Carolina doesn't need him to pour in buckets.

What it needs from Tokoto is everything else. He needs to be smart with his passes. He needs to attack the rim and draw fouls or kick out for easy shots for teammates. He needs to use his long reach and athleticism to disrupt opposing scorers.

Harvard doesn't have the athletes to compete with a player of Tokoto's caliber in UNC's first tournament game. Although its team defense is strong, Tokoto should be able to find creases and lanes to make an impact.

That will be enough of a difference to mask whatever he lacks in field goals. Look for the Carolina point-forward to fill up the stat sheet even if he doesn't flood that first column.

Justin Jackson

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Justin Jackson has had a really solid freshman season. In fact, other than a poor shooting night against Notre Dame in the ACC final, Jackson has been coming on strong as of late.

Prior to the Irish loss, Jackson had scored in double figures in eight straight ballgames and shot a combined 12-of-24 from three. Then, he went 0-of-7 from deep in the championship with three turnovers and three fouls.

Jackson is still just a freshman even though he's started all year. There is a possibility that the championship game was too big for him, and he may struggle coming out in the NCAA tournament as well. Or, it could have just been a blip. After all, his three-point shot was off all season. Going 0-of-7 just proved he was more comfortable taking those attempts.

Nevertheless, don't be surprised if Jackson takes a few possessions to get into the flow of the game and shies away from that deep shot.

Brice Johnson

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Brice Johnson has been a man possessed down the stretch of this season. The final five games of the year, he averaged 17.8 points and attempted more than 12 field goals per game. There is no way that he is going to let the Harvard Crimson slow him down.

Harvard was good defensively in the Ivy League, but they don't make Brice Johnsons in the Ivies.

The Crimson have no player over 6'9" on their roster, and Steve Moundou-Missi is really the frontcourt power in their rotation. Nothing against Moundou-Missi, who is a good defender, but he hasn't had to guard someone with Johnson's face-up game and leaping combination.

As always, the existence of Kennedy Meeks makes Johnson's job easier and vice versa. Neither player can be focused on, and Johnson has been the bigger threat in the second half of the season. Look for that to continue.

Kennedy Meeks

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It's been a long slog for Kennedy Meeks this year.

Things started off swimmingly for the young center. He was the toast of the town for weeks with his new svelte frame. And results were great.

But as is to be expected for someone adjusting to a new body type and physical grind, Meeks' numbers dipped. His rebounding slowed, and his scoring really dropped during the season's final month. Also, fouls remained an issue on the defensive end.

This mini-break has been good for him. The team will have had almost a week off since last playing in the ACC title game on March 14. It will have been a chance for Meeks to recoup some of his lost energy.

A renewed effort will be evident against Harvard.

Besides, no player on the Harvard roster can battle with Meeks' girth even in his slimmed-down form. Kenyatta Smith is the only Crimson player who approaches it, and he only plays 12-13 minutes a night.