Why Notre Dame Poses the Biggest Threat to Kentucky's Title March

March Madness is all about giant killers, but there’s one team with a better chance than most to knock off Kentucky in this year’s NCAA tournament: Notre Dame. Maybe it’s just the post-St. Patrick’s Day malaise talking, but the Fighting Irish have everything a legitimate contender needs to knock out the Wildcats.

Right now, talk of Kentucky’s potential deposers is hotter than MC Hammer's parachute pants in 1990, and it’s not all just hype. Analysts have been lining up to talk about teams with the right pieces for a one-off victory—and, just like Hammer himself, the Wildcats should be wary their time at the top could come to an abrupt end if they aren’t careful.

According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, Kentucky is not a perfect lock to win the title: 

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According to ESPN's Basketball Power Index, the Cats have a 49% chance to cut down the nets in Indy » pic.twitter.com/isnxhjq94H

— ESPN College BBall (@ESPNCBB) March 16, 2015"

With that in mind, there are a number of potential callbacks for the role of David in this Goliath battle—Virginia, Villanova, Arizona, Wisconsin—but the team with the perfect mix of talent and timing is actually Notre Dame. As Gregg Doyel of the Indy Star notes:

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Mental toughness, physical toughness, confident frontcourt, dominant backcourt. Notre Dame can beat Kentucky. There aren't but two or three teams in America that deserve even that much said about them — maybe they can beat Kentucky — but Notre Dame is one of them.

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Think about it: The Irish are still riding the wave of their ACC tournament victories over favored Duke and North Carolina, they are fantastic scorers of the basketball (51 percent FG, 39 percent from outside), they’re poised to meet Kentucky at a critical juncture in the tournament and they have the kind of experience only age can produce.

Do other teams have one or two of these factors combined with different assets that may also be beneficial? Yes. But do others teams have this complete combination for a winning formula? Nope.

For example, ESPN’s scientific BPI doesn’t do justice to intangibles like the psychological momentum that makes a world of difference in March (and that the excluded Notre Dame has been building for some time):

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Entering today, ESPN's BPI gives Kentucky a greater than 70% chance to beat any team in nation on a neutral court. pic.twitter.com/VK31srRtvk

— ESPN College BBall (@ESPNCBB) March 15, 2015"

So let’s start with Notre Dame’s momentum from the ACC tournament. This was the school’s first appearance in the ACC title game, but the Irish showed no signs of debutante jitters as they overcame a streaking UNC (the Tar Heels were on a three-game win streak, including back-to-back wins over Virginia and Louisville) for the title in the lion’s den.

“To win the championship going through Duke and North Carolina on Tobacco Road, I think is extremely powerful,” Notre Dame coach Mike Brey said in his postgame press conference, per Sporting News' Ryan Fagan. “It’s really powerful for our program.”

Notre Dame went on a 26-3 second-half run to stun North Carolina and prove it will not be intimidated by late deficits, even against strong teams' home-crowd support. The Irish were 10-of-20 from behind the arc and 53 percent from the field, showing their shooters can be devastatingly clutch when it matters most.

Their consistent shooting took away North Carolina’s distinct advantage on the defensive boards. (The Tar Heels are ranked seventh in the nation in defensive rebounds, while the Irish are 250th on offensive rebounds, per ESPN.) That directly counteracted their opponent’s strength with their own strength (while simultaneously subverting their won offensive rebounding weakness).

This will likely be a similar scenario to what Notre Dame will face against Kentucky, considering the Wildcats average a little over 25 rebounds per game. (For comparison, UNC registered 28 total rebounds in the ACC final.)

Everyone knows Kentucky’s notoriously stingy defense, which allows the third-fewest points in the nation, will be the determining factor in the Wildcats’ NCAA tournament run.

If the Irish are to counteract that, they’ll have to find open outside shooters in Jerian Grant (approximately 33 percent from three, per ESPN), Pat Connaughton (44 percent), Demetrius Jackson (41 percent), Steve Vasturia (41 percent) and V.J. Beachem (42 percent).

As Fagan points out, they are more than capable of doing exactly that:

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That 24-2 run [against UNC in the final], by the way, is going to give whatever coach draws Notre Dame in the tournament nightmares. It just happened so quickly. The first 11 points came in a 68-second span that included a pair of steals by the Notre Dame defense and bevy of crisp passes by the Irish offense that always found the open shooter.  

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For a visual of that sequence, check out the video in the tweet below (starting at about the 1:40 mark):

Now, look at those three-point numbers again: Notre Dame is a team with four players shooting over 40 percent from outside with one of the best point guards in the nation adding 47 made threes of his own this season just for good measure.

If four of those five three-point options are looking like their season averages against Kentucky, they will be able to overload perimeter defenders Andrew and Aaron Harrison and Devin Booker and take away the Wildcats’ considerable rebounding advantage inside simply by not giving them the opportunity.

That sounds easy enough: Just shoot well and the Irish are golden. But what if Notre Dame isn’t at its brilliant best from outside? In that case, the critical dimension of the game will shift to Notre Dame’s ability to draw fouls inside to see the Irish through their rare dry-shooting spells.

That sounds elementary on paper, but can any team really trouble Karl-Anthony Towns and Dakari Johnson in the post?

While it’s true the Irish haven’t faced the Kentucky defense yet this year, they do know what it’s like to lose their greatest asset (i.e. outside shooting) against a top team during a tournament—and they compensated with flying colors by going inside to get the win.

Against Duke in the ACC tournament semifinal, Notre Dame went a dismal 2-of-8 from downtown. However, it compensated by going inside and drawing 25 free-throw shots from the Blue Devils (of which the Irish hit 88 percent) to ride the stripe to its distinct advantage (Duke was only 7-of-14).

Granted, Kentucky is ranked No. 2 in the nation in blocked shots per game, but this is all about best-case scenarios. If Notre Dame and Kentucky play 10 times, Kentucky would probably win nine—but remember, we’re talking about that one outlier.

Also, it wouldn’t hurt if Drake suited up for the Wildcats (but that probably won’t happen…again):

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The only reason Kentucky would lose the national championship this year. @Drake #BBN  https://t.co/sfQ3FHZAsK

— tαвιтнα∂αиιєℓℓє ♡ (@sexndrvgs) March 17, 2015"

If the Irish are going to win against the Wildcats, they’ll have to hit a lot of long shots, but they are by no means clueless when it comes to drawing fouls from organized defenses like Duke’s.

When a star guard like Jerian Grant gets a half-step on his man, he can either take the open lane to make an NBA play at the rim or force a second defender to collapse and open up an outside shooter for the kick-out pass.

As Doyel points out, “At guard Notre Dame's best is better than Kentucky's best. Assuming the Irish can handle the waves of fresh bodies coming their way…Notre Dame's backcourt will be fine.”

ESPN NBA insider Chad Ford seems to agree with Grant’s ability to single-handedly influence a game, as he notes his draft stock in these tweets:

True, Kentucky will scout Grant and undoubtedly try to shut him down, but the Irish’s balanced starting five are more than capable of picking up the slack created by one star’s tepid night. On January 5, Notre Dame managed a close win over UNC despite the fact that Grant only registered eight points (1-of-8 from the field).

Even against a lesser side like Purdue (ranked 14th in the nation in blocks per game) on December 20, Grant was well below his season average with 10 points, but his teammates played their part to earn a 31-point victory over the Boilermakers.

Grant has carried his team in a number of big games (27 against Michigan State, 25 at NC State, 24 against UNC), but Notre Dame has the support to share the load when opposing defenses key in on its point guard.

The Irish do not usually live and die by Grant’s production, so they could still survive a short dry spell against the Wildcats. However, Brey will have to find a way to ensure Kentucky’s added focus on his point guard will yield advantages elsewhere for the Irish.

If the senior Grant is struggling, Brey has a stellar backup in Jackson. The sophomore averages 12.5 points per game and gives the Irish a second point of attack to keep Kentucky on its toes when keyed in on Grant. He also has the skill and athletic ability to overcome significant height disadvantages at the rim:

If Notre Dame wants to emphasize its points in the paint, it can pair the dribble-drive threats of Grant and Jackson with 6’10”, 240-pound junior forward Zach Auguste (12.4 PPG). And as illustrated by the following clip, Auguste has the speed and control to move efficiently with the basketball to score:

He likely won’t get many fast breaks like that against the Wildcats, but that quickness will still come in handy down low when he is about to get double-teamed.

Auguste can either draw his defender into committing a foul by being half a step quicker (he’s behind only Grant in free-throw attempts this season with 133 for the Irish), or he can kick the ball back out to an open shooter as that defender tries to collapse on him.

It’s the kind of split-second decision that has become second nature for an upperclassman like Auguste, and that added experience will benefit the Notre Dame squad as a whole when the major network cameras are rolling.

Another advantage the Irish will have against Kentucky is their experience. With two seniors, a junior and two sophomores making up the starting five, Notre Dame has the invaluable experience only time can provide.

Compare that to the 10 Kentucky players with the most appearances this season (four freshmen, five sophomores and one junior) and even John Calipari’s platoon system looks a little underclassmen-heavy. USA Today’s Nicole Auerbach recently joked about Kentucky’s lack of fourth-year players:

Granted, they are a talented bunch with high basketball IQs, but still many of the players Calipari has counted on this year do not have any experience in the latter stages of the NCAA tournament. That doesn’t mean they won’t perform in those stressful stages, but it does mean there’s no barometer for that scenario. (So it could go either way.)

This is not to say Calipari hasn’t taken freshman-led teams to the final—he has—but rather to suggest that Kentucky does not hold a monopoly over every X-factor, even though the Wildcats are undefeated. And when there are X-factors like experience and outside shooting up for grabs, there could be an upset in the cards.

Meeting up in the Elite Eight could also be an X-factor blessing in timing for Notre Dame. It’s not the final for or the national title game, but it’s not an early-round, dead-rubber game either. Notre Dame vs. Kentucky would fall squarely between the waning of pre-tournament-hype momentum and the rise of “we’re so close to the trophy we can almost taste it” momentum.

In other words, it could be a mental grind for the Wildcats that coincides with a game against a stellar opponent—a combination of two dangerous factors Kentucky hasn’t faced simultaneously all year.

Kentucky will have punished the winner of Cincinnati vs. Purdue and been moderately challenged by the winner of West Virginia vs. Maryland, leaving room for complacency against its next opponent.

And if the Wildcats spend too much time thinking about the NCAA championship game while they’re still in the Elite Eight, they just may get absent-minded again:

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"We all forgot" - John Calipari on why Kentucky did not cut down nets after winning SEC Tournament. pic.twitter.com/oNfXNm5VV3

— ESPN College BBall (@ESPNCBB) March 15, 2015"

Notre Dame, on the other hand, will be coming off a series of tough victories against Butler vs. Texas and Kansas vs. Wichita State. Add that to their season-ending run against UNC and Duke, and the Irish will have a solid month of incredible victories over outstanding opponents to make them feel like world beaters.

Some say the road to the elite eight will be too draining for Notre Dame—that it could lose before reaching the elite eight—but that tough slate is exactly what the Irish need to keep their giant-killing momentum rolling.

For the record, three out of four on ESPN’s College GameDay crew believe the Irish will make it the to the Kentucky matchup:

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The GameDay crew makes their championship picks. Bilas: Kentucky Greenberg: Kentucky JWill: Arizona Rece: Kentucky pic.twitter.com/J1QkDARYD2

— ESPN College BBall (@ESPNCBB) March 16, 2015"

The easy start against Northeastern will serve as a good warm-up after the layoff from the ACC tournament, but then winning back-to-back tough games will keep them focused and feeling invincible going into the Kentucky matchup.

For the Irish, it’s all about being in the groove and feeling like every game is theirs for the taking if they just play like they know they can. If the Irish are going to topple Kentucky, they’ll have to be fearless and embrace the occasion—and that’s exactly what they’ll be poised to do after an eight-game winning streak against the nation’s best.

If Notre Dame gets a chance to face Kentucky, the Irish will still be underdogs in everybody’s book. But as coach Brey said, per Sporting news, “Nobody ever picks us to win. Underdogs. But that’s the way we like it.”