Predicting San Francisco 49ers Starting Lineup After the 1st Wave of Free Agency

Of the San Francisco 49ers’ 22 starters in Super Bowl XLVII, only eight remain on the roster: Colin Kaepernick, Vernon Davis, Joe Staley, Alex Boone, Anthony Davis, Aldon Smith, NaVorro Bowman and Ahmad Brooks.

Of the 49ers’ 11 starting defensive players last season, only six remain on the roster: Brooks, Aldon Smith, Michael Wilhoite, Ian Williams, Eric Reid and Antoine Bethea.

The 49ers have lost six key players on defense from last season. Patrick Willis and Chris Borland retired. Justin Smith probably will retire, according to Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com. Ray McDonald was released, and Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox signed with other teams.

It’s a full-blown rebuild.

It wasn’t supposed to be. The defense was set. It ranked in the top five last year. The 49ers’ issue was supposed to be offense.

Now, both offense and defense are the 49ers’ issues.

Which issue is bigger? Check out the current starting lineup and decide for yourself.

Quarterback

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Colin Kaepernick

The 49ers allegedly put Kaepernick on the trading block earlier this month, according to a March 8 tweet from Jayson Braddock of KBME SportsTalk 790 in Houston. Just a few hours after Braddock’s tweet, Trent Baalke issued a statement courtesy of the 49ers’ public relations department, in which he called the rumor “ridiculous.”

I believe Baalke on this. Even if he wants to trade Kaepernick, he can’t. Not yet. Kaepernick is Baalke’s quarterback whether Baalke likes it or not.

The market for quarterbacks in free agency and the draft is bare this offseason. Kaepernick is the only quarterback who gives the 49ers a chance to win. The team would be waving the white flag before the season even started if it traded Kaepernick and handed the starting job to Blaine Gabbert or a rookie.

If Baalke wants to trade Kaepernick, he has to wait until next offseason.

Running Back

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Carlos Hyde

Hyde is an upgrade over Frank Gore.

Gore is a future Hall of Famer, but Hyde is better than him right now. Gore averaged 2.3 yards after contact per carry last season, per Pro Football Focus. Hyde averaged 2.7—tied for eighth best in the league. Hyde is bigger, faster and more powerful than Gore.

Gore was a better fit in Jim Harbaugh’s I-formation offense, because Gore is more patient and better at following blockers than Hyde.

But the 49ers may switch to a read-option running game, which does not require patience. There are no pulling 300-pound guards to follow in a read-option running game.

Hyde ran the read-option in college. The read-option is his specialty.

Fullback

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Bruce Miller

Miller might be Trent Baalke’s best draft pick ever.

Baalke drafted Miller in the seventh round in 2011. Miller was a defensive end in college—he didn’t play fullback. Somehow, Baalke saw that Miller had the athletic traits to play fullback and took a chance on him.

Not only could Miller play fullback, but he became one of the best in the NFL as soon as he entered the league. He is a great blocker and a good receiver, too.

Miller is one of the 49ers’ 10 best players, but there’s a chance he could miss the beginning of the season. He was arrested on suspicion of spousal battery for allegedly pushing his fiancee to the ground March 5, according to the San Jose Mercury News. If he is charged and convicted, he could face a six-game suspension.

In that case, the 49ers have another fullback on the roster—Trey Millard. He was a seventh-round pick, like Miller.

Wide Receiver

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Flanker—Anquan Boldin

Boldin has just one year left on his contract. That doesn’t necessarily mean next season will be his last with the 49ers.

He doesn’t seem to be aging. He isn't fast, but he never has been fast. A flanker doesn’t have to be fast. A flanker has to catch underneath passes and find open windows against zone coverage. Boldin still does both of those things very well. He probably will be able to do them well into his late 30s. He turns 35 on Oct. 3.

If he has another 1,000-yard season, why wouldn’t the 49ers re-sign him?

Split end—Torrey Smith

The 49ers haven’t had a legitimate split end since Terrell Owens.

The split end is supposed to be the speed receiver, the guy who runs deep and creates space underneath for the flanker.

Smith is a legitimate split end. Cornerbacks tend to line up 10 to 15 yards away from the line of scrimmage when they cover Smith because they’re so concerned he will run past them.

For the past 10 years, opposing defenses have crowded the line of scrimmage to take away the 49ers’ running game. Smith forces them to back up.

Tight End

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Vernon Davis

This could be Davis’ final year in the NFL.

He’s only 31, he has one year left on his deal, and maybe the 49ers will re-sign him. But he’s losing his speed. He always relied on speed to get open—he could outrun linebackers and safeties.

Davis no longer has the speed to outrun them. He needs to run crisp routes to get open, and he never learned to do that.

Maybe he will learn this offseason. The 49ers need him to learn because he is still a key component of the offense.

Offensive Line

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Joe Staley—LT

Staley used to be a great left tackle. Now, he is merely a very good one.

He still is a great run-blocker. He's one of the best run-blocking tackles in the NFL. But he’s a middle-of-the-road pass protector at this stage of his career. He turns 31 on Aug. 30, and he isn’t as quick as he was three years ago. Staley might need to move to right tackle soon.

Erik Pears—LG

Who will replace three-time Pro Bowl guard Mike Iupati?

The 49ers may not have his replacement yet. They may end up drafting the replacement.

For now, the team has former Buffalo Bills guard Erik Pears—they signed him to a two-year contract Saturday. Pears is the second highest-paid guard on the team next to Alex Boone, according to Spotrac.

But Pears is not a lock to start. The 49ers drafted guard Brandon Thomas in the third round last year. Thomas didn’t play in 2014 because he tore his ACL for the second time. He is a talented young player.

Thomas probably will start the offseason behind Pears on the depth chart.

Daniel Kilgore—C

Kilgore missed nine games last season with a broken left leg.

He was playing well before he broke his leg. He was particularly effective as a run-blocker. In Week 5, he manhandled Kansas City Chiefs’ standout nose tackle Dontari Poe.

If Kilgore doesn’t make a full recovery, Marcus Martin is his backup. Martin struggled last season as a 20-year-old rookie.

Alex Boone—RG

Boone held out of training camp last season to get a new contract. He finally got it, and then he didn’t play well.

Boone was one of the three best guards in the NFL when the 49ers went to the Super Bowl in 2013. Boone has been ordinary since then.

He’s only 27. If he shows up to training camp, he should have a good season.

Anthony Davis—RT

Davis has been in the NFL five seasons, and he still is just 25 years old. Theoretically, he hasn’t reached his prime.

Davis has never been a good pass protector, but he is becoming one of the best run-blockers in the NFL. He may be a better run-blocker than Staley.

But Davis is less dependable than Staley. Davis missed nine games last season due to various injuries, and his body may be wearing down.

He might have to switch to guard in a couple of years.

Defensive Line

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Darnell Dockett—RDT

Dockett would replace Justin Smith at right defensive tackle, if Smith retires.

Dockett would be an upgrade over Smith as a pass-rusher, and a downgrade as a run defender. Smith was one of the best run defenders in the league and a slow, methodical pass-rusher. If the quarterback held onto the ball for five or six seconds, Smith would eventually get him. Dockett gets to the quarterback in a flash.

Ian Williams—NT

Williams is one of the best nose tackles in the NFL, when he’s healthy.

But he’s rarely healthy. Last season, he missed seven games with a broken leg. The year, before he missed 14 with a broken ankle.

Maybe those were fluke injuries. Maybe Williams isn’t injury prone. He will get another chance to prove he isn’t. He is a leader on a team that is losing its leaders. They need Williams to start and stay healthy.

Glenn Dorsey—LDT

Dorsey has been a nose tackle since he signed with the 49ers in 2013, but the 49ers have a hole at left defensive tackle. That was Ray McDonald’s position.

Dorsey played that position from 2008 to 2012 in the Kansas City Chiefs’ 3-4 defense. Dorsey was a disappointment in Kansas City. The Chiefs drafted him with the fifth pick, hoping he would be the next Warren Sapp.

Dorsey is no Sapp, but he could be the next McDonald for the 49ers.

Linebacker

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Aldon Smith—ROLB

Last season was a lost season for Smith.

The NFL suspended him for the first nine games. When he returned, he was a ghost. You hardly noticed him. He had two sacks in 426 snaps, according to Pro Football Focus.

Was last year an aberration, or did Smith peak early? He is only 25.

NaVorro Bowman—RILB

This one is no guarantee. The 49ers might cut Bowman if he fails his physical, according to Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com.

If Bowman passes the physical and stays on the team, how much can he really play next season? He tore his left ACL and MCL just 14 months ago. If he can play, he shouldn’t play more than two-thirds of the defensive snaps. It would be irresponsible for the 49ers to play him more than that.

Michael Wilhoite—LILB

Wihoite is the starter now, but he probably won’t be the starter when the season starts.

Patrick Willis was supposed be the starter, but then he retired. Then Chris Borland was supposed to be the starter, and then he retired, too. Wilhoite is the starter by default.

Wilhoite is decent. Some defenses would be happy to have him start for them.

But he’s a better special teams player than an inside linebacker. My guess is the 49ers will try to find an upgrade in the first or second round of the upcoming draft.

Aaron Lynch—LOLB

Lynch was the 49ers’ best pass-rusher last season and he was only 21 years old. He had six sacks, eight quarterback hits and 27 quarterback hurries in just 521 snaps, according to Pro Football Focus.

Lynch could double that production as he improves and gets more playing time. If Smith struggles, Lynch could take his place at right outside linebacker in 2016.

Cornerback

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Tramaine Brock—LCB

Brock broke on passes as quickly as any cornerback in 2013. Pro Football Focus ranked him the 14th best cornerback in the NFL that season, and he wasn’t even a full-time starter. He played 678 snaps and intercepted five passes and broke up eight.

Brock injured his toe Week 1 last season and never was fully healthy after that. Perrish Cox took his place.

If Brock is healthy, he will be a significant upgrade over Cox.

Shareece Wright—RCB

The San Diego Chargers drafted Wright with the 89th pick in the 2011 draft. Chris Culliver—the cornerback Wright is replacing—was the 80th pick that year.

NFL.com grades draft prospects every year, and before the 2011 draft, it gave Wright a grade of 4.79 and Culliver a grade of 4.78, meaning they thought Wright was slightly better than Culliver.

Culliver got drafted by a team with a good defense, which made him look good. Wright got drafted by a team with a not-so-good defense, which made him look not so good.

Wright has talent. Unlike Culliver, Wright has long arms and he can jam wide receivers at the line of scrimmage. Wright could be an upgrade.

Safety

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Eric Reid—FS

Reid was one of the best free safeties in the NFL his rookie season. People expected him to improve during his second season, but he didn’t. He got worse. Reid was not good.

He routinely got fooled in pass coverage and, according to Pro Football Focus, he gave up five touchdown catches. That’s a lot of touchdown catches for a safety to give up.

Reid also suffered his third concussion, so that's a concern.

Antoine Bethea—SS

Many people thought Bethea would be the weak link on the 49ers defense when they signed him last year.

He was replacing Donte Whitner, who had gone to two straight Pro Bowls. Bethea hadn’t gone to a Pro Bowl since 2009.

Bethea turned out to be better than Whitner. Whitner is a ferocious hitter, but he’s a liability in pass coverage. Bethea was the best pass-covering strong safety in the NFL last season.

Special Teams

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Phil Dawson—K

Last season was one of the worst seasons of Dawson’s 16-season career.

He made only 80.6 percent of his field goals and, by the end of the season, many of his kickoffs did not reach the opposite end zone.

Dawson turned 40 on Jan. 23. It’s time the 49ers find Dawson's heir apparent.

Andy Lee—P

Lee is the longest-tenured player on the 49ers, even though he's only 32. He has been on the team for 11 seasons.

And he could be on the team 11 more. He’s having a great career. He is a three-time All-Pro punter, and he is the team's best special teams player.

Bruce Ellington—KR

Ellington is fearless for a little guy. He never braces before he takes a hit on a kick return. Last season, he finished 12th in kick-return yards in the NFL. He was just a rookie.

If he doesn’t make in the league as a wide receiver, he could make it as a kick returner.

Jarryd Hayne—PR

Ellington is less effective as a punt returner.

He averaged 8.2 yards per punt return last season. LaMichael James, the 49ers’ punt returner the season before, averaged 10.9 yards per punt return in 2013.

The 49ers seem to want a better punt returner than Ellington. They met with Ted Ginn Jr. before he signed with the Carolina Panthers, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The 49ers also signed National Rugby League star Jarryd Hayne to be a return man.

Watch Hayne’s highlights. He looks like he will be a fantastic punt returner. The 49ers will give him every opportunity to win the job during training camp.