NCAA Tournament TV Schedule 2015: Thursday Matchups Sure to Bust Brackets

No American sporting event has celebrated the upset quite like the NCAA tournament.  From office pools to betting to plain old drama, watching previously anonymous Cinderellas emerge on the national stage has always driven the tournament's popularity.

With the madness commencing on Thursday with 16 games over 12 hours, millions of brackets will inevitably be busted.  Of course, with most brackets not locking until noon, there's still time to change your predictions and grab the upper hand over your competitors.  

Examining the complete Day 1 round of 64 schedule, let's highlight the upsets most likely to occur and explain why these matchups represent potential pitfalls for the higher seed.

All Your Bracket Essentials

• Download the Printable Bracket
• Play the Free Bracket Challenge

Time (ET)	Game	TV Channel
12:15 p.m.	(3) Notre Dame vs. (14) Northeastern	CBS
12:40 p.m.	(3) Iowa State vs. (14) UAB	truTV
1:40 p.m.	(3) Baylor vs. (14) Georgia State	TBS
2:10 p.m.	(2) Arizona vs. (15) Texas Southern	TNT
2:45 p.m.	(6) Butler vs. (11) Texas	CBS
3:10 p.m.	(6) SMU vs. (11) UCLA	truTV
4:10 p.m.	(6) Xavier vs. (11) Ole Miss	TBS
4:40 p.m.	(7) VCU vs. (10) Ohio State	TNT
6:50 p.m.	(1) Villanova vs. (16) Lafayette	TBS
7:10 p.m.	(8) Cincinnati vs. (9) Purdue	CBS
7:20 p.m.	(4) North Carolina vs. (13) Harvard	TNT
7:27 p.m.	(5) Utah vs. (12) Stephen F. Austin	truTV
9:20 p.m.	(8) N.C State vs. (9) LSU	TBS
9:40 p.m.	(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Hampton	CBS
9:50 p.m.	(5) Arkansas vs. (12) Wofford	TNT
9:57 p.m.	(4) Georgetown vs. (13) Eastern Washington	truTV

(11) Ole Miss over (6) Xavier

The Rebels were a surprising tournament entry to many after their head-scratching SEC tourney loss to South Carolina, and down 17 in the First Four play-in game against BYU, the skeptics appeared justified on Tuesday night.  But Ole Miss' comeback signaled its legitimacy as a dark horse, and the Rebels will have a reasonable chance to pull a second consecutive upset against Xavier.

The Musketeers could be Final Four sleepers in 2016 or 2017, but their roster is currently laden with underclassmen.  The team's three leading scorers are either freshmen or sophomores, and while a certain team in Lexington would scoff at the notion of age as a relevant predictor of success, a lack of road victories (just six wins at away or neutral sites) is an ominous harbinger for Xavier's tournament success.

Moreover, Ole Miss has recalibrated its offensive attack around 5'10" point guard Stefan Moody, whose quick trigger from three-point range makes the Rebels the type of high-variance team that nobody wants to see in March.  The Rebels don't exactly have a ton of quality wins on their resume, but based on common opponents with Xavier, Ole Miss holds the upper hand:

Both teams possess prolific, spacing-oriented offensive attacks, so each team should be able to play the game on its own terms.  However, Moody is the only true shot-creator on either side, and his presence in what figures to be a close game down the stretch could make the difference.

(12) Stephen F. Austin over (5) Utah

The Lumberjacks are in a familiar position, having won from the No. 12 seed last season against VCU.  Just as they were last year, SFA is a popular Cinderella nominee with a favorable draw against Utah, which flamed out in the semifinals of a mediocre Pac-12 tournament field:

In fairness, the Utes shouldn't be dismissed so readily, as they spent the season in the Top 25 in the polls and are currently ranked eighth overall by Kenpom's efficiency metrics.  Still, Larry Krystkowiak's bunch plays like an underdog, relying on ball movement for shot creation to compensate for surprisingly inferior athleticism.  Against more physical front lines, the Utes are poorly equipped to play an inside-out game.

That plays right into SFA's hands, as the Jacks are known for their relentless, swarming press.  Stephen F. Austin forced 16.6 turnovers per game, sixth best in the nation and second best of any remaining tourney team, behind only West Virginia.  Utah point guard Delon Wright has had issues with pressure this year, as double-teaming the Utes' leading scorer has often paid dividends.

Combined with versatile scoring forward Jacob Parker, the Jacks' strengths line up with Utah's biggest weaknesses.  SFA made it to the weekend last year, but don't be surprised if it advances even further in 2015.

(13) Eastern Washington over (4) Georgetown

Individual star power can be a game-changing factor in a single-elimination format, and in that sense, no underdog is more dangerous than Eastern Washington.  Behind the nation's leading scorer Tyler Harvey (22.9 PPG), the uptempo Eagles are a fun outfit and strong candidate to become this year's signature Cinderella, and head coach Jim Hayford certainly isn't lacking in confidence:

Among tournament teams, Kenpom's adjusted tempo measures ranked the Eagles as the seventh-fastest team in the nation.  Few teams are as persistent about getting out in transition, as Harvey thrives when given space to penetrate the lane (though he's also a willing passer looking to hit teammates for open three-pointers).

Harvey will face off against first-team All-Big East selection D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera in what should be one of the round's best individual matchups.  Smith-Rivera is the Hoyas' leading scorer, but he's also a complete player who hits the glass, distributes and gets to the line frequently.  Georgetown plays a deep nine-man rotation, but Smith-Rivera is the engine that has driven the team the entire season.

Therein may lie the problem, as the Hoyas have few other sources of firepower and generally struggle at the free-throw line.  Georgetown has had issues against squads that have run against it this season, as the ability to keep the ball out of Smith-Rivera's hands was a common theme throughout the Hoyas' regular-season losses.  

In that sense, few squads could have been a worse draw than the Eagles, who appear primed to exploit Georgetown's greatest weakness.