NCAA Tournament 2015: Guaranteed Upset Picks for Your Printable Bracket

For all the talk of Kentucky and its quest for perfection this season, the NCAA tournament is built on what happens before the title game. The upsets and smaller schools that don't get a lot of national exposure are what make this event so compelling. 

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Teams like Kentucky, Duke and Wisconsin are supposed to be here. It's teams like Wofford, Wichita State, Davidson and Stephen F. Austin—teams not accustomed to national exposure—that give March a special feeling.

As the field gets whittled down to 64 teams after tonight's final set of First Four games, all eyes will be on the upsets that are bound to happen. When you get ready to fill out your bracket, these are the games that have upset written all over them. 

No. 12 Buffalo over No. 5 West Virginia

Everyone loves a 12-5 upset because you know it's a virtual lock to happen. The one everyone is talking about in this tournament is Buffalo over West Virginia. This poses a question: If an upset is expected, does it still qualify?

For the purposes of this discussion, yes, since all we are focused on is the seeding. Buffalo is starting the game at a disadvantage, utilizing a rotation of eight players, as noted by Dave Hickman of The Charleston Gazette:

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The eight who do play, though, are a nice mix. Four are forwards between 6-foot-7 and 6-10 and the other four are guards. Six of the eight are juniors or seniors and just one is a freshman.

The Bulls also have a go-to scorer both inside and out in 6-7, 240-pound Mid-American Conference player of the year Justin Moss and 6-1 sophomore guard Shannon Evans.

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Therein lies the difference between most mid-major teams and big-conference teams: Experience. The Mountaineers aren't necessarily inexperienced, led by the return of senior Juwan Staten, but there are limitations to what Bob Huggins' team does. 

West Virginia is a horrible shooting team, ranking 282nd in field-goal percentage (41.2), that gets by with an in-your-face full-court press. It's a style that works for this team, though not one Buffalo will be afraid of. 

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

Bobby Hurley did a great job of testing the Bulls this season with nonconference games against Kentucky and Wisconsin. The 71-52 final score of that game against Kentucky is deceiving, as Buffalo led by five at halftime and kept things close for the first 10 minutes of the second half before the Wildcats' depth took over. 

Staten is the question mark for West Virginia—he's expected to be back Friday after missing the past four games with a knee injury. Staten is a high-volume shooter, yet is the most consistent deep threat on the team. 

West Virginia ended the year on a down note with three losses in its last four games. Granted, that was against Baylor (twice) and Kansas, but there's been little to suggest that this is a team on the rise in the most critical month of the year. 

Buffalo, meanwhile, has plenty of offense and will use its versatility to overcome the Mountaineers defense in a close battle. 

Prediction: Buffalo 67, West Virginia 62

No. 13 UC Irvine over No. 4 Louisville

Louisville is a team that scares me in this tournament, and not in a good way. To provide some context, the Cardinals are a worse-shooting version of West Virginia. Rick Pitino's team ranks 95th in offensive efficiency, per KenPom.com, which forces their defense to be on point at all times.

Despite the team's shortcomings, they will be a trendy pick by some simply because of their pedigree. Pitino has a great track record in March, and that always causes some to overrate a team. 

On the other hand, UC Irvine is making its tournament debut, though some projections are giving the Anteaters good odds to win for its seeding. FiveThirtyEight.com gives them a 25 percent chance to win, which is second among No. 13 seeds to Valparaiso's 28 percent chance to defeat Maryland. 

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

The Anteaters also have a weapon that no team can match: 7'6" center Mamadou Ndiaye. He only plays 19.1 minutes per game, yet averages 10.4 points and 5.1 rebounds on 63.0 percent shooting. 

There's no denying what Pitino's team can do on defense, though that unit did struggle down the stretch in allowing 74 points to N.C. State, 69 points to Syracuse, 71 to Notre Dame and 70 to North Carolina. 

Even if UC Irvine isn't in that category, having a player who is a matchup problem against a team that has no offensive identity and needs to keep opponents under 60 to win gives the Anteaters an advantage in this matchup. 

Prediction: UC Irvine 64, Louisville 56

No. 12 Stephen F. Austin over No. 5 Utah

Going back to the 12-5 well one more time, this is a bigger stretch than Buffalo over West Virginia. Utah is a sleeper Final Four team if you look at the odds, which have the Utes listed as a 33-1 favorite, according to Odds Shark. That's better than teams like Kansas and North Carolina. 

In many ways, a matchup with Stephen F. Austin is fitting for Utah. Here's what Andrew Beaton of The Wall Street Journal wrote in listing this matchup as one of five key games to watch:

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Stephen F. Austin is an upset waiting to happen. They deserved a better seed, enter the tournament scorching hot and possess one of the nation’s best offense. The Lumberjacks lead the country in assists (17.8 per game), rank ninth in points (79.5 per game) and fifth in field goal percentage (49.1%).  The problem: Utah is also under-seeded, so both of these teams will have a chip on their shoulder.

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Utah's strengths lie in its size with Jordan Loveridge and Jakob Poeltl, but the tournament is built on guard play. The Utes aren't lacking in that department with Delon Wright, but the Lumberjacks counter with one of the best guard-forward duos in the country. 

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Thomas Walkup has breakout star written all over him after averaging 15.7 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, while Jacob Parker chips in with 14.1 points and 5.5 assists per game. Those are the two stars on a deep roster that has four other players averaging at least 6.9 points per game. 

Stephen F. Austin is a tournament-tested team, having defeated VCU in the second round last year and playing Northern Iowa, Xavier and Baylor this season. The Lumberjacks lost all three games with only one (Northern Iowa) decided by less than 16 points. 

As long as the Lumberjacks are able to spread the floor, get everyone involved and not let those past failures against tournament teams creep into their minds, they have the ingredients to pull off this upset. 

Prediction: Stephen F. Austin 77, Utah 75