Predicting New York Jets Starting Lineup After the 1st Wave of Free Agency
The New York Jets are in a class of their own for their moves so far this offseason.
They have made some of the biggest moves of any team, shaking up their roster and bringing new excitement to a franchise that has lacked in that area for years.
In some places, they'll look the same. In others, they'll look drastically different. And in others still, they'll be different in a similar way—or similar in a different way, depending on your perspective.
Unique New York, indeed.
With an overhaul at cornerback and wide receiver, the Jets will be a brand-new team (or brand-new old, or old-brand new) on both sides of the ball.
So, how will the starting lineups look?
Things could change depending on the complexion of the 2015 NFL draft, but with the first wave of free agency already finished, here's what the Jets starting lineups look like to date.
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
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With Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker and Jeremy Kerley at the receiver positions, the Jets quarterback will have a much easier job and many more weapons to execute that job than most of the quarterbacks who have preceded him.
The question is, who will be that quarterback?
Love him or hate him, Ryan Fitzpatrick should be the starting quarterback. With the series of moves they have made on both sides of the ball, it is clear that the Jets are in win-now mode. Right now, Fitzpatrick is a better quarterback than Geno Smith, who has been erratic at best and godawful at worst in his two-year career.
Fitzpatrick is also well-aware of the ins and outs of offensive coordinator Chan Gailey's scheme, which was tailored to Fitzpatrick's (limited) skill set when the two were a unit with the Buffalo Bills. In fact, that system worked well enough that Fitzpatrick eventually earned a six-year, $60 million extension from the Bills—although he was cut a couple of years later when the system wasn't working well enough (or when Fitzpatrick wasn't working well enough with the system).
Unless the Jets draft a quarterback early in the 2015 NFL draft, Fitzpatrick is likely to be the starter for this season.
RB: Chris Ivory
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For years, the Jets have tried to stay dedicated to the "ground and pound" attack on offense. Well, they grounded and pounded their own offense into the ground over the past two years, ranking in the bottom five in scoring each year.
Don't blame Chris Ivory for that, though. He's been doing his share of the work, carrying the ball a combined 380 times for 1,654 yards and nine touchdowns in the past two seasons and averaging 4.4 yards per carry in the process.
The Jets still have Bilal Powell in their backfield, so he will continue to serve as the "spell back" for Ivory, but there are some question marks in the stable of running backs. The biggest concern is who will play on passing downs. Last year, it was Chris Johnson, but the Jets parted ways with him and his diminishing skill set earlier this offseason.
The Jets may have to turn to the draft for their next scatback, but for now, their first- and second-down options are solidified.
TE: Jace Amaro
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The Jets spent a second-round pick on tight end Jace Amaro last season, and although the former Texas Tech product is much more capable in the passing game than as a blocker, he should still be in line to start at tight end in 2015.
At 6'5" and 265 pounds, Amaro possesses the frame of a tight end who can block on the edge in the running game, but he has not exhibited the polish in that area that would allow him to consistently line up on the end of the line. That's why he has spent most of his time lining up in the slot, even dating back to his college days.
Jeff Cumberland is in the final year of his contract, and although he is only 27-going-on-28 years old, he does not have the high ceiling of Amaro. If Amaro can become more well-rounded as a blocker and live up to the hype he built as a pass-catcher at Texas Tech, the Jets offense could be one of the more difficult units to stop next season—granted the team can figure out that whole "who's the starting quarterback" thing.
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WR: Eric Decker, Brandon Marshall, Jeremy Kerley
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If you were to take a before-and-after photo of the Jets wide receiver corps, it would probably look like something straight out of the latest miracle weight-loss infomercial.
The Jets pass-catching group once consisted of such stalwarts as Stephen Hill, Santonio Holmes and Chaz Schilens. Now, they are loaded with talent in the likes of Eric Decker, Brandon Marshall and Jeremy Kerley.
Whoever the Jets quarterback ends up being can say hello to his happiest dreams; whoever the Jets are facing can say hello to a nightmare skill position group.
The size of Decker and Marshall gives the Jets two imposing options standing over 6'3" and weighing over 215 pounds. Both men have the ability to stretch a defense vertically, although their strong suit is in jump-ball situations and any situation where they can use their frame as an advantage. That serves as a solid complement to the skill set of Jeremy Kerley, whose sharp cutting ability and smaller stature lend to a better fit in the slot than on the perimeter.
The three receivers combined for more than 1,200 receptions, making this one of the most experienced and gifted groups in recent memory for the Jets.
OL: D. Ferguson, J. Carpenter, N. Mangold, W. Colon, B. Giacomini
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The Jets know they need to improve on the offensive line. At least they're trying.
Most of the 2014 starters will return for another go-around in 2015; that includes left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson, center Nick Mangold, right guard Willie Colon and right tackle Breno Giacomini. By adding former Seattle Seahawks left guard James Carpenter, the Jets have upgraded at one of the guard spots over the rotation of Oday Aboushi and Brian Winters that filled that role last season.
Carpenter has had problems staying on the field; he had ACL surgery in 2012 and conditioning issues at various points in his career. If he can stay healthy and stay in shape, he could be an asset to the offensive line.
That being said, the Jets may need to draft a guard to supplement Colon's spot on the right side. The soon-to-be 32-year-old guard has had multiple knee injuries in his career, and although he's played nearly every snap and all 16 games in each of the past two seasons, he is not a long-term solution at that position. Perhaps Aboushi or Winters could battle with Colon for the starting right guard spot.
Either way, it appears the Jets may still have some work to do to finish rebuilding the offensive line.
DL: Muhammad Wilkerson, Damon Harrison, Sheldon Richardson
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The Jets made one of their most important moves of the offseason so far, and it barely registered a blip on the radar. By designating nose tackle Damon Harrison as a second-round tender, the Jets ensured that they would hang onto the man who controls the all-important A-gaps in their defense.
With former first-round picks Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson surrounding Harrison, the Jets field one of the most dominant defensive lines in football—and a perfect defensive line to execute a 3-4 scheme.
That's big news for head coach Todd Bowles, who has been running that scheme for years as he has climbed his way up the ranks in the NFL. The importance of three talented linemen who can carry out multiple responsibilities cannot be understated, especially with the freedom it allows for the linebackers to make plays at the second level as well as for the play-caller to use players in various ways to attack certain gaps and weaknesses in the opponent's offensive line.
The Jets ranked third in total run defense in 2013 and fifth in 2014, and with their three monsters up front returning for another year, they appear primed to continue bottling up opposing running backs like a small wooden boat or a message out at sea.
LB: Quinton Coples, David Harris, Demario Davis, Calvin Pace
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The Jets will look exactly the same at linebacker in 2014 as they did in 2013. That's for better and worse.
The better: keeping the tandem of David Harris and Demario Davis together. Most expected Harris to be a goner, but the 31-year-old has played in so many systems and has been effective in all of them, so the Jets' new coaching staff was right to give him an opportunity to show his stuff in the new system.
Davis has flashed playmaking ability in his three-year career and has been a full-time starter for each of the past two seasons.
Quinton Coples has shown some potential as well, although he may never live up to the billing as a first-round pick in 2012. He notched 6.5 sacks in 2014, a career high, but Calvin Pace, however, can tell you all about how meaningless sacks can be as a stat. He notched 10 of them in 2013, but most were a product of pressure created by his teammates on the defensive line.
Coples is a nice start, but the Jets may still be in the market for a pass-rushing outside linebacker in the 2015 draft.
CB: Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie
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Batman and Robin are back together again.
With Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie back with Gang Green, the Jets have exactly the type of secondary they need to execute Todd Bowles' scheme. There's no other way to put it.
Revis and Cromartie are known for their versatility to play multiple defensive schemes, but they are famous for their bump-and-run skills. That will be their meal ticket in New York, and it will also be Bowles' meal ticket, as he often calls for the cornerbacks to play physical man coverage and cover their men without help from a linebacker or safety.
Buster Skrine isn't a starter, but signing him was an important move as well, as the Jets are likely to spend a lot of time in their nickel package, which will call for a capable slot cornerback.
S: Calvin Pryor, Marcus Gilchrist
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Who knows what the Jets were thinking when they signed safety Marcus Gilchrist. Calvin Pryor spent much of his rookie season playing out of position as a free safety, but instead of signing a capable free safety, they signed Gilchrist, who is far more experienced and capable in a role similar to the one where Pryor fits more comfortably.
As of now, however, Pryor and Gilchrist are the two most talented safeties on the roster, and it would seem they will be the starters.
Perhaps Todd Bowles is preparing to run a scheme that does not call for much, if any, deep help from the safeties. That would be a risky move, but one that patterns perfectly with Bowles' scheme with the Arizona Cardinals.
ST: Nick Folk, Ryan Quigley
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There's been a lot of change in New York this offseason, but a couple of things are staying the same—kicker and punter, where Nick Folk and Ryan Quigley remain entrenched as the starters in the specialist unit.
Quigley averaged 39.9 net yards per punt, which ranked 12th out of 36 qualifying punters, and he pinned his opponent inside the 20-yard line on 23 of his 78 attempts. The 25-year-old and three-year pro appears to be on an upward trajectory and could be the punter for years to come.
Folk attempted 39 field goals last year, tied for a career high and ranking as the most attempts by any kicker last season. He only converted 32 of them, however, for an 82.1 percent rate that was down 9.6 percentage points from the 2013 season. He also attempted six field goals of 50 yards or more and only made three of them, which skewed his numbers a bit.
Unless otherwise noted, all advanced statistics provided by ProFootballFocus.com.
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