2015 NBA Rookie Ladder: Nerlens Noel Does the Impossible
Andrew Wiggins' uninterrupted reign atop the rookie rankings is over.
Despite sustaining a steady upward trajectory for most of the season, Wiggins' chief competitor has engineered a productivity spike at just the right time.
Nerlens Noel, the man who almost certainly would have been the top pick in his own draft class last year, has overtaken Wiggins, who has been the best player of his class by a significant margin. We'll dig deeper into the numbers later on, but I thought it'd be good to prepare you for the shock of seeing Wiggins someplace besides No. 1 now.
The rest of the rankings got a thorough shakeup as well. A pair of new entries round out the final two spots, and every single player in the top eight has changed positions since the last edition.
Note: These rankings aren't designed to determine which player has the most talent or will become the biggest star once fully formed. Instead, we're focusing on how each rookie has played this season, with specific focus on recent performance.
10. Rodney Hood, SG, Utah Jazz
1 of 10
Stock Report: ↑
Rodney Hood is our first new entry, and he's earned his way here by setting career highs in scoring three different times since the last time we ranked rookies.
It started with 17 points against the New York Knicks on March 10. Then, on March 12, Hood scored 20 against the Houston Rockets. March 16 brought the Charlotte Hornets to Salt Lake City, and Hood hit them for 24 points on 9-of-11 shooting in a 94-66 win.
"I felt like I got in a little groove," Hood told Aaron Falk of The Salt Lake Tribune after hitting on all five of his triple attempts against the Hornets. "I just knocked down shots when [the ball] came to me."
Easy game.
Hood has only recently started seeing significant court time. After topping the 20-minute mark just twice in February, he's eclipsed it in all but one game so far in March. Not only that, but the Utah Jazz have won nine of their last 10 contests—a stretch that basically coincides with Hood's increased role.
The volume of production isn't quite there; Hood has only been an impact player for a couple of weeks. But during that span, the No. 23 pick in the 2014 draft has proved he belongs in the top 10.
Besides, we have to find a way to celebrate what the Jazz have done lately. Honoring Hood seems like as good a way as any.
9. Dante Exum, PG, Utah Jazz
2 of 10
Stock Report: ↑
Dante Exum is finally starting to trust his talent, and that's the main reason he joins teammate Hood as a rookie-ladder party crasher.
Per The Associated Press (h/t Fox Sports), Exum explained:
"One of the main reasons behind it is just the confidence. I’ve had a couple of games where it’s not been happening for me, and I’ve had people come up to me and say 'keep shooting it, you can make it', it just gives me that little bit of confidence that when I take that next shot, it’s going to go down.
"
March has seen Exum logging career-high minutes, and he's finally putting together the kinds of performances expected of a top-five pick, scoring in double figures in three of his last five games. As always, he features two or three plays a night that widen eyes, and his feel for the game shows through more frequently these days.
Best of all, Exum is hitting from long range. He's shooting 47.1 percent from deep in March. With perimeter marksmanship in his game, Exum's speed and quickness become a bigger threat.
If Hood is deserving of some credit for Utah's surge, Exum, the team's starting point guard during its revival, gets more.
8. Jusuf Nurkic, C, Denver Nuggets
3 of 10
Stock Report: ↓
A sprained ankle limited Jusuf Nurkic to just three games since the last set of rankings, which results in a small drop in his stock.
It also means Nurkic wasn't on the floor for much of the remarkably hot start to the Melvin Hunt era in Denver. No worries there, as he'll definitely be a key cog in the franchise's core going forward.
Overall, Nurkic ranks third in rebounds and blocks among rookies this season, despite playing just 48 games (24 starts) so far. In a class hurting for legitimate centers, he's the best old-school big of the bunch.
7. Marcus Smart, PG, Boston Celtics
4 of 10
Stock Report: ↓
We have to start with the offensive numbers, which are hard to look at.
Smart is shooting 35.5 percent from the field this year and has converted just 30.9 percent of his attempts since March 4.
That's a problem, and it's keeping him lower on the list than he otherwise would be. Fortunately, there's more to the game than shooting, and Smart excels at just about everything else—especially the parts that require grit.
He laid out his and the Boston Celtics' mentality to reporters, via Zack Cox of NESN.com: "We’re here to grind, too. At this time in the season, the wins now, they’re not going to be pretty. You’ve got to get in there. It’s going to be a dogfight, and the toughest team that’s going to grind it out the most is going to win."
You'll note Smart mentioned wins. Those are things very few of the rookies on this list know much about, and it's worth crediting this first-year player for being a big part of actual NBA victories. Because the Celtics have battled their way into playoff position, Smart gets a big enough boost here to compensate for his substandard shooting numbers.
The next man on the list has combined Smart's defensive will with actual offensive production.
6. Langston Galloway, PG, New York Knicks
5 of 10
Stock Report: ↑
Exchanging volume for efficiency is never going to hurt a rookie's stock around these parts, which is why New York Knicks point guard Langston Galloway moves up a spot despite seeing his counting numbers tumble in March.
After averaging 11.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and three assists in February, his numbers this month have dropped to 8.6 points, three rebounds and 2.9 assists. He's playing about four fewer minutes as well.
However, Galloway has knocked down 45.2 percent of his field goals in March, including 38.9 percent of his attempts from deep. Both are substantial improvements over the 35.5 percent and 33.3 percent accuracy rates he compiled from the field and from three last month.
There's more: Galloway has been fantastic on defense, holding opponents well below their typical field-goal percentages from everywhere on the floor, according to NBA.com.
Seth Rosenthal of Posting and Toasting marvels: "Langston Galloway makes everyone shoot worse from everywhere. Much, much worse. And that's really impressive! The Knicks have been a horrible defensive team, especially in the backcourt (hi Jose Calderon!), but in 24 games, Galloway has been an island of shot-contesting excellence."
No, the Knicks aren't playing in meaningful games. And no, we can't be sure Galloway's numbers will translate when he's part of a team that's actually trying to win. But you could make those same criticisms about almost every rookie on this list.
It's extremely difficult to sacrifice quantity for quality in Galloway's perpetual-garbage-time circumstances, but he's managed to do it. Because of that and his three-month run of solid play overall, he easily warrants a spot ahead of the four players we've covered so far.
5. Jordan Clarkson, PG, Los Angeles Lakers
6 of 10Stock Report: ↑
Well, it's not a fluke.
Jordan Clarkson has been producing long enough now to remove any doubt that he's a quality rookie.
Though his three-point shooting has tailed off since we last ranked the rooks (he's shooting just 26.3 percent from deep since March 4), Clarkson has been immensely productive otherwise, averaging 14 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.9 assists in his last seven games.
Recent tutelage from Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash has opened new dimensions in the second-rounder's game, head coach Byron Scott explained to Bill Oram of the Orange County Register:
"You start seeing some of the stuff that Steve is talking with him about. Sometimes it’s easier to relate to a player like that than it is to us as coaches. Because we’re sitting there saying, 'The pocket pass is open. Jordan, the pocket pass is open.' Steve is showing you how to throw it in his own unique way, I think is even more important.
"
Clarkson just keeps climbing the ladder, and the only reason he hasn't cracked the top four is because he didn't really have a steady job until February.
With the resources at his disposal, don't rule out more progress down the stretch.
4. Nikola Mirotic, PF, Chicago Bulls
7 of 10
Stock Report: ↓
Nikola Mirotic has been battling with Elfrid Payton for the No. 3 spot in our rankings all season, and the race this time around is tighter than it has ever been.
Despite averaging a whopping 18.7 points and eight rebounds since March 4, Mirotic actually slips down to No. 4. That may sound crazy given his counting numbers, but Mirotic has shot just 38.1 percent from the field and 24.4 percent from beyond the arc in that seven-game span, which means he's producing a lot of low-efficiency offense for the Bulls.
And he's not helping out much on D.
After watching this 24-year-old forward put up 27 points in a 109-110 loss to the Oklahoma city Thunder on March 15, Bulls head coach and notorious curmudgeon Tom Thibodeau called Mirotic's defense "problematic," via K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune.
Maybe that's a little unfair; Mirotic had a hard time whenever pick-and-rolls resulted in him getting switched onto Russell Westbrook in that game. And there's no shame in failing to contain Russ on a switch when you're a 6'10" forward.
Mirotic has been solid overall. The guy ahead of him has just been better.
3. Elfrid Payton, PG, Orlando Magic
8 of 10
Stock Report: ↑
It's hard for a dude with hair like this to do anything under the radar, but Elfrid Payton has quietly raised his game to the point that it's impossible to ignore him any longer.
With averages of 14.1 points, 8.4 assists and 5.3 rebounds since we ranked him No. 4 on March 3, Payton has distinguished himself as a better player than Mirotic.
An intuitive point guard with strong defensive instincts, Payton is already a more complete player than Mirotic is ever likely to be, and if his uptick in shooting accuracy sticks, this guy could become a star.
We're not measuring potential here, though, so Payton earns his No. 3 ranking on overall performance to this point. He has more than twice as many total assists as any other rookie, while ranking second in both steals and minutes played.
And on March 15, he came just one rebound shy of a triple-double against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Payton can play, and it's time we all took notice.
2. Andrew Wiggins, SF, Minnesota Timberwolves
9 of 10
Stock Report: ↓
It finally happened: Somebody shoved Wiggins from the top spot he'd occupied for the entire season.
To be clear, this isn't a case of the Minnesota Timberwolves' terrific rookie falling off. He has reached double figures in 13 straight games dating back to Feb. 20, and his March numbers of 15.3 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists are excellent for a first-year player.
It's just that Wiggins has essentially plateaued—not in terms of his long-term growth but on this season's particular trajectory.
Scott Howard-Cooper of NBA.com explains: "The Minnesota small forward going in a straight line is still a very positive direction, and he has the important credential of easily being the better two-way player over the course of the season."
See? Nobody's knocking Wiggins. He's still awesome.
But another player's recent surge has changed the rookie landscape, shaking up the status quo in a way few suspected was possible.
1. Nerlens Noel, PF/C, Philadelphia 76ers
10 of 10Stock Report: ↑
A man who knows a thing or two about rejection has denied Wiggins a place at No. 1.
Noel, on the strength of phenomenal defense and a quiet climb up the statistical leaderboards, is your new top rookie.
We'll get to his overall numbers momentarily, but first consider Noel's stats since the All-Star break: 12.6 points, 10.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2.5 blocks and 2.5 steals on 47.1 percent shooting.
The guy has been an absolute monster—impacting every facet of the game and galvanizing a surprisingly effective (and always engaged) Philadelphia 76ers defense. In hindsight, maybe we should have seen this coming. Noel was easily the most talented player in last year's draft; he just needed time to fully recover from the ACL he tore in February 2013.
Brett Brown told Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe: “What’s been the thing that has changed the most? I just feel like he’s played more basketball. People forget that he never really played that much.”
If we keep the parameters basic, Noel is among just four players averaging at least nine points, seven rebounds, one block and one steal this season, per Basketball-Reference.com. The other three are Anthony Davis, Draymond Green and DeMarcus Cousins.
If we tighten things up by requiring at least 1.8 blocks and 1.8 steals, Noel is all alone this season. He's the only guy in that category.
Over the past month, Noel has had games with 18 points, 17 rebounds, nine blocks, six steals and four assists. The ways he can impact a game are, as evidenced by those numbers, pretty much limitless.
His hands are phenomenal. He is remarkably active on defense. He's an instinctive passer. He's getting comfortable as a finisher.
He's done the impossible, snatching the rookie crown with less than a month to go.
We'll see if Wiggins has a counterpunch down the stretch.
All stats accurate through games played March 16 and sourced from Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.
