March Madness 2015: Surefire Picks to Advance to Sweet 16

The first-round upsets might be fun to predict, but they won't help much in your March Madness pool. The true key is correctly guessing the surprises in the Sweet 16 and beyond.

While you can play it safe and predict mostly chalk in the first few rounds with the top seeds advancing, you can really get an advantage by sprinkling in a few upsets that no one else will have in his or her bracket.

The NCAA men's basketball tournament is full of surprises every year, and this one should be no different. Here is a look at the latest Sweet 16 predictions in each region.

All Your Bracket Essentials

• Download the Printable Bracket
• Play the Free Bracket Challenge 

Midwest

Seed	Team
1	Kentucky
4	Maryland
3	Notre Dame
7	Wichita State

Things begin quietly in the Midwest, with Kentucky cruising to victory in the first weekend regardless of the play of Purdue's A.J. Hammons.

Maryland could have trouble with the pressure of West Virginia, but an elite point guard like Melo Trimble should be able to navigate through the traffic and find open teammates all over the court.

Texas represents a scary sleeper team that could knock off Notre Dame with its size, although the Irish have handled this issue well this season and should be able to make it out of the first weekend.

The real challenge to the top teams comes from Wichita State, which even Kansas head coach Bill Self was surprised to see so low on the bracket, via Nicole Auerbach of USA Today:

While the Jayhawks have done a great job getting through a difficult nonconference schedule as well as in the Big 12, they are still inconsistent. Meanwhile, the Shockers have many of the same contributors who went to the Final Four two years ago.

Wichita State should be able to get past Indiana and then pull off the upset over Kansas in the round of the 32.

USA TODAY Sports

West

Seed	Team
1	Wisconsin
4	North Carolina
3	Baylor
2	Arizona

Sorry if this is boring, but every so often, the seeds align—with the four top-ranked teams in the region just being better than everyone else.

ESPN Stats and Info has a lot of respect for the top two seeds:

Arizona could have problems with either VCU or Ohio State, but the Wildcats have a strong enough defense to handle either squad with relative ease.

A potential matchup between North Carolina and Arkansas would be thrilling to watch with its back-and-forth play, but the Tar Heels have more experience in this environment and should be able to advance.

Baylor could have problems with whichever team it faces, but its ability to dominate the glass will help it against any early-round opponent.

USA TODAY Sports

East

Seed	Team
1	Villanova
5	Northern Iowa
3	Oklahoma
7	Michigan State

A lot of people will pick North Carolina State or LSU to pull off the upset over Villanova. Yes, the Wildcats did lose in the round of 32 last season, but that loss came against a Connecticut team that was en route to one of the most surprising championships ever.

With an improved defense and deeper rotation, Villanova will be a much tougher out this time around.

The other top seed might not be as lucky, as Jason McIntyre of The Big Lead describes:

Michigan State has had its problems this season, but the talent is there to pull off an upset over a Virginia team that has struggled to score in recent weeks. A healthy Justin Anderson could make a difference, but he hasn't shown that he is 100 percent yet this postseason—and the Cavaliers might not have time to wait.

Oklahoma is far from safe as a No. 3 seed, especially with Providence and its great backcourt looming. However, Buddy Hield and the Sooners should be able to get through to at least the second weekend.

This leaves an intriguing matchup between Louisville and Northern Iowa. While the Cardinals have history and national recognition on their side, they have not played well offensively since losing point guard Chris Jones (dismissed from program). Northern Iowa plays great defense and has a player in Seth Tuttle who can get it done inside to earn the win.

USA TODAY Sports

South

Seed	Team
1	Duke
13	Eastern Washington
3	Iowa State
2	Gonzaga

The top three seeds in this region are clearly better than the rest of the field.

Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports notes how easy things will be for Duke in the first three rounds with little competition:

In the bottom half of the bracket, Iowa State and Gonzaga have each put together great seasons and also face few real challenges in the opening rounds. This could create an excellent matchup in the Sweet 16, but until then we should just assume both will make it there.

This leaves the most surprising team in the bracket in Eastern Washington. Behind the nation's leading scorer, Tyler Harvey, the Eagles can score the ball and cause problems for whichever team they face.

In the opening round, that team will be Georgetown—a squad that is clearly over-seeded at No. 4. One area in which the Hoyas especially struggle is defending the three-point shot, which could be a great advantage for Eastern Washington.

The next round would match the squad up with Utah. While the Utes play excellent defense, they have struggled to generate offense outside of Delon Wright and have lost four of their last seven games. This is certainly a risky pick, but it can lead to a big advantage in your pool.

Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter. If it's March, I'm talking about pretty much nothing but college basketball.