NCAA Brackets 2015: Tournament Odds and Key Storylines to Watch

As much fun as the NCAA tournament games are to watch, everything that develops from them is what makes it so compelling. Whether it's a team trying to go undefeated, an underdog making a deep run or every top seed advancing to the Final Four, the next three weeks provide hundreds of storylines to talk about. 

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Some will obviously be bigger than others, because there has to be a pecking order to things or else chaos ensues, but with all 68 teams technically still able to win a championship, you can craft any number of possibilities to happen before games tip off. 

The winds are certainly blowing in one direction, as evidenced by the championship odds that have been released. Here's a look at the bracket, updated odds and pre-tournament storylines to keep an eye on heading into all the action. 

Tournament Odds

Team	Odds
Kentucky	6-5
Arizona	15-2
Wisconsin	17-2
Duke	9-1
Villanova	10-1
Virginia	10-1
Gonzaga	16-1
Notre Dame	25-1
Iowa State	33-1
Utah	33-1

Note: Odds for all 68 teams can be found at Odds Shark.

Tournament Storylines

Kentucky's Quest for Perfection

It's rare to have a field with 68 teams, as well as the parity that has been prevalent in the NCAA tournament in recent years, where one team would be such an overwhelming storyline. Anyone who tunes in to this spectacle will do so rooting for or against Kentucky to finish 40-0. 

The weird thing about the Wildcats as they enter the tournament is how much of a foregone conclusion this championship seems to be, according to analysts. 

Despite being in a region with other really strong teams such as Kansas and Notre Dame, Sports Illustrated basically dismissed everyone else on that particular bracket:

"

There’s chatter that the Wildcats, who allow just 53.7 points per game, might be the best defensive team of all time (they block seven shots a game and hold teams to 35.2% from the field). ... Calipari can caution outsiders to not get too high on the his team if he wants, but Kentucky is rolling. It's beaten opponents by an average of 21.1 points, and that streak will continue into Indianapolis. 

"

It's not an unfair statement because of how good the Wildcats have been, but it also paints a scenario in which this team is invincible. That's not true at all. 

First, just looking at the history of undefeated teams in the tournament, five of the last six teams to start the Big Dance undefeated failed to win a title. You can say that Wichita State last year wasn't in the same category as some other major-conference teams, but that doesn't explain UNLV in 1991, Indiana State in 1979 or Indiana in 1975. 

College basketball has changed drastically in the 24 years since that UNLV team lost to Duke in the Final Four, lacking the same kind of depth, yet it goes to show that no one is perfect.

Al Behrman/Associated Press

That 1991 UNLV team, by the way, held opponents to a 39.6 percent field-goal percentage and won games by an average of 28.4 points. For comparison, Kentucky's opponents are shooting 35.5 percent with a 20.9-point margin of victory, per Nicole Auerbach of USA Today. 

For all the good things Kentucky has done this year, it's not impervious to an upset somewhere. That's been proved various times during the regular season, with The Associated Press (h/t Fox Sports) highlighting what some opponents have had success doing in close losses against the Wildcats:

"

Mississippi, Florida, LSU and Georgia all shot 47 percent or better in a game against Kentucky this season, losing those four games by an average of only 5.0 points. In Kentucky's other 30 games, the average margin at games' end was 23.1 points.

In the eight ''close'' games, opponents shot 46 percent from 2-point range against Kentucky. In all other games, opponents shot 36.8 percent from inside the arc. And in the last three Wildcats' games decided by 10 or fewer, teams shot a staggering 57.4 percent on 2's.

"

Now, it does have to be said that Kentucky still won all the games it didn't play up to its full potential. Great teams are able to do that, which makes the Wildcats so tough to handle. 

Like every rational-thinking person, I expect Kentucky to win a national championship. John Calipari is doing some of the best coaching of his career for a team that's got more talent and depth than anyone else in the country. 

But in a sport where going undefeated in the regular season hasn't guaranteed a championship the last three times it has happened, the Wildcats aren't going to win six tournament games by an average of 20 points. There will be close calls, likely starting in the Elite Eight against Notre Dame and continuing through the title game. 

The Cinderella

One recent trend in the NCAA tournament has been a low seed playing deep into the second weekend and, in some instances, the Final Four.

Last year's title game participants, Connecticut and Kentucky, were considered sleepers because of their seeding even though those are two of the most prestigious basketball programs in the country. A real Cinderella is Wichita State playing in the Final Four, Dayton in the Elite Eight or La Salle in the Sweet 16. 

So who is going to be this year's darling?

One area to look, even though most fans don't consider it to be a real part of the tournament, is the First Four games that take place on Tuesday and Wednesday. While I wouldn't tell you to bet on the No. 16 seeds (Manhattan vs. Hampton, Robert Morris vs. North Florida), look at the games involving the No. 11 seeds. 

In fact, Jeff Eisenberg of Yahoo Sports presents a compelling case for BYU based on its resume and history of teams in the First Four games:

"

In its four years of existence, the First Four has produced a Final Four team, three Sweet 16 teams and at least one round of 32 team each time. The First Four team with the best chance to duplicate that success this year is BYU. The Cougars boast a free-flowing, multifaceted offense powered by high-scoring Tyler Haws, triple-double machine Kyle Collinsworth and an array of capable outside shooters...

"

The Cougars have a marquee win under their belt, defeating Gonzaga on February 28. They play an uptempo style that goes against the grain in college basketball right now, which operates at a glacial pace because of television timeouts and coaches regrouping their players when the opposing team makes two consecutive shots. 

Another potential sleeper that falls in the Cinderella category is Davidson, which plays a similar fast-paced style to BYU and has a coach in Bob McKillop who wants his team to have freedom on the court, as Scott Fowler of the Charlotte Observer wrote:

"

The Wildcats score 80.6 points a game – fourth highest in the country out of 351 teams. McKillop tells his players what he wants them to do in practice and then purposely tries not to micromanage in games. Davidson’s offense is a whirlwind of screens, cuts, handoffs and three-pointers (Davidson makes 10.9 three-pointers per game, second-best in America).

"

The last bit is also important, because underdog teams have to make three-point shots in order to keep pace with more talented groups in the tournament. Davidson isn't going to be intimidated in any of its matchups, starting with Iowa and presumably Gonzaga in the third round, so this team has the potential for a Sweet 16 run.

A Gonzaga-Davidson matchup would also make for one of the most exciting tournament matchups, as the Bulldogs led the nation in shooting percentage and scored 79.1 points per game. 

If you want two double-digit seeds capable of making a run into the second weekend, BYU and Davidson are good places to start looking. 

 

The First No. 1 Seed to Lose

Since it's already been established here that Kentucky won't lose, that leaves three top seeds carrying that weight on their shoulders. Not that anyone will feel sorry for Villanova, Duke or Wisconsin, but one of them has to be the first No. 1 seed to bow out of the tournament. 

In trying to determine which one goes down, looking at potential matchups becomes the key. We can eliminate the No. 16 seeds because until that actually happens, it's impossible to predict that kind of upset. It will happen someday—just don't count on it being this year. 

Despite the loss to Notre Dame in the ACC tournament, Duke looks like a safe bet to play in the Elite Eight. The Blue Devils got a solid No. 2 seed in Gonzaga, though the Bulldogs have never played up to expectations when getting a high seed in the tournament. 

Iowa State looks like the second-best team in that region, having won the Big 12 tournament title and winning eight of its last 10 games. Georgetown is a soft No. 4 seed with one win against the RPI Top 30, per ESPN.com. 

Villanova didn't get an "easy" draw, but a potential matchup in the Sweet 16 against Northern Iowa or Louisville looks like a breeze because those two teams can't hit a shot to save their lives. No. 2 Virginia enters the tournament in disarray with Justin Anderson looking lost in the ACC tournament. 

Providence is the sneaky team in Villanova's bracket with two star players in Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton. If the Friars can find a reliable third option, they are going to go far. 

That leaves Wisconsin, a team most consider to be the biggest threat to Kentucky if the two meet in the Final Four. Yet the selection committee didn't do the Badgers any favors by giving them arguably the best No. 2 (Arizona), No. 3 (Notre Dame) and No. 4 (North Carolina) in the tournament. 

The Tar Heels would get first crack at Wisconsin in the Sweet 16. Roy Williams' team is peaking at the right time, breaking through Virginia's stout defense by shooting 54.8 percent from the floor in the ACC tournament. 

Based on the matchups, it doesn't seem likely any No. 1 seed will go down before the Sweet 16. The tournament is a lot more complex than just what happens on paper, because sports don't play by rational rules, but it doesn't look like there will be any early exits for top teams this year.