Predicting Miami Dolphins Starting Lineup After the 1st Wave of Free Agency
With a furious flurry of moves, the Miami Dolphins have been among the most active teams this offseason.
Trades, signings and releases have dominated the headlines in Miami for the past two weeks, as the team looks to shape its roster for the 2015 season in hopes of finally getting over the hump and into the playoffs.
With major changes at wide receiver and linebacker, the Dolphins could look much different on both sides of the ball.
So, how will the starting lineups look?
We don't know for certain until the team has made all of its picks in the 2015 NFL draft, but with the first week of free agency in the books, here's a glimpse at the starting lineup as currently constituted.
QB: Ryan Tannehill
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Make no mistake: There may be some questions about Ryan Tannehill's long-term future with the Dolphins, but the short term is as clear as cellophane. Tannehill is the starting quarterback for 2015, and beyond—if he plays well enough.
Tannehill's QB rating has climbed an upward trajectory each year in the league: 76.1 in his rookie season of 2012, 81.7 in 2013 and 92.8 in 2014. He had a lot of help in 2014 from a high-efficiency, death-by-one-thousand-paper-cuts offensive system implemented by new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor.
Tannehill will need to improve his accuracy as a downfield passer, where he has completed only 32 of 117 (27.4 percent) of his passes that traveled 20 yards or more downfield in the past two seasons.
The Dolphins are hoping that he can take the next step in his development and become a quarterback they can truly count on to win games on his own accord.
RB: Lamar Miller
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Sometimes, the greatest action is inaction. With the Dolphins failing to make any moves at running back this offseason, they have set in motion their apparent plan for Lamar Miller to remain the lead back.
Miller's running style is based off agility and acceleration, with an ability to make big plays when he gets out in the open field. He picked up 1,374 yards from scrimmage in 2014, which led the team by a wide margin of nearly 500 yards more than wide receiver Mike Wallace (878).
After shipping off Wallace, Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson, the Dolphins are going to look much different offensively this year than last, and they'll need a big season from Miller if they want to field a competent offense.
Miller was the Dolphins' lead back in 2014 when Knowshon Moreno was lost for the season to a torn ACL. He has proved he can carry the load in the past, and he'll have to prove it again in 2015.
TE: Jordan Cameron
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The Dolphins signed tight end Jordan Cameron, a 6'5", 244-pound former basketball player who will give the offense a much-needed red-zone threat. He has struggled with injuries in his career, suffering multiple concussions that have cast some doubt over his long-term stability.
The Dolphins are in transition all over the offensive side of the ball, and thanks to their use of the transition tag on Charles Clay, they may also be in transition at tight end; according to Vic Carucci of The Buffalo News, the Bills have a 90 percent chance of landing Clay. In fact, the Dolphins may be in transition either way. They will either field a two-tight end offense with both Clay and Cameron, or they will swap out Clay for Cameron in their playbooks.
Either way, the Dolphins have at least one top-notch tight end in their weaponry who can help stretch the seam and test linebackers and safeties over the middle in the passing game.
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WR: Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, Rishard Matthews
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A strength has become an apparent weakness. The Dolphins fielded a stellar group of wide receivers in 2013, featuring Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson. In 2014, they added Jarvis Landry to the mix. And in 2015, they appear to be starting almost from scratch after cutting bait with Wallace, Hartline and Gibson and trading for Kenny Stills from the New Orleans Saints.
Landry led the Dolphins in receptions in 2014, but of the four leading wide receivers on the team in receptions, he is the only one who will be back for the 2015 season. Of the team's six leading pass-catchers overall, Landry is one of only two who will be back. Last Samurai, Last Action Hero, Last Man Standing—whatever you want to call him, Landry has gone from the young buck to the top dog in the Dolphins' wide receiver room.
Stills can add some explosion to the offense, with 63 receptions for 931 yards and three touchdowns last year with the Saints. The third-year receiver has averaged 16.5 yards per reception in his first two years in the league, and at 6'1" and 194 pounds, he also adds a nice presence in the red zone.
With three-year veteran Rishard Matthews in the mix, the Dolphins have a pair of receivers with experience in the offense to help get Stills up to speed. Matthews has fallen in and out of favor with the coaching staff of late, but he is the best option remaining to start.
The Dolphins may have purged the roster of their veteran receivers, but they have at least three young guns who can get the job done.
OL: Branden Albert, Billy Turner, Mike Pouncey, Sam Brenner, Ja'Wuan James
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The Dolphins have had problems on their offensive line for the past couple of years, and it appears those problems aren't going away anytime soon.
The tackle spots are solidified with Branden Albert on the left and Ja'Wuan James on the right, and the center spot is secure in the hands of Mike Pouncey, but unless the Dolphins improve the guard spots, we'll soon find out if 60 percent of the time really does work every time.
Billy Turner and Sam Brenner were both backups in 2014, but it may be time to give them a shot at the starting lineup. Head coach Joe Philbin has supported and expressed confidence in Dallas Thomas in the past, despite his continued struggles at both tackle and guard. The two-year pro finished the 2014 with a minus-12.5 grade, ranking 58th out of 78 guards, according to ProFootballFocus.com.
The Dolphins could be in line to draft a guard on Day 2 of the draft, and six prospects are deemed worthy of a second- or third-round pick, according to CBSSports.com. None of them, however, are fits for the Dolphins' zone-blocking scheme. From this perspective, the team would be better off with a player who is experienced in its system.
DL: Cameron Wake, Olivier Vernon, Ndamukong Suh, Earl Mitchell
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The Dolphins defensive line will have a different look in 2015, but the new look is not diminished in talent from the old one.
Defensive ends Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon are still a tandem of pass-rushers to be reckoned with; the two combined for 113 pressures in 2014, according to ProFootballFocus.com, and both men finished among the top 20 most productive pass-rushing 4-3 defensive ends in the league.
But all that could be child's play compared to what the Dolphins are about to do. With newly acquired defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh in the middle, the pass rush could be even fiercer than in years past—and Suh is a heck of a run defender, as well. His gap-plugging ability in the running game and gap-shooting ability as a pass-rusher will bring a whole new level of disruption to the defense.
LB: Kelvin Sheppard, Koa Misi, Jelani Jenkins
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Much like the wide receiver position, the Dolphins gutted their linebacking group like dolphin-safe tuna. They released a combined 13 years of experience when they cut Philip Wheeler and traded Dannell Ellerbe in salary cap-clearing moves, and now, they'll be turning to their new blood at the second level of the defense.
The thing is, last year, with injuries to Ellerbe and Wheeler, the Dolphins already got a good look at their young up-and-comers in Kelvin Sheppard and Jelani Jenkins. Jenkins earned a start in 15 of 16 games after Ellerbe was lost for the season and ranked 14th out of 42 4-3 outside linebackers when it came to stopping the run.
Sheppard has already been through the wringer in his four-year career, playing for three different teams and at three different positions (4-3 middle linebacker for the Buffalo Bills, 3-4 inside linebacker for the Indianapolis Colts, outside linebacker and inside linebacker for the Dolphins). He and Koa Misi will probably share the responsibilities inside and outside, but at least the Dolphins have some options.
Misi has started 37 of 48 possible games over the past three seasons, so the Dolphins will be banking on him to provide some stability in that group and help Sheppard and Jenkins transition into their larger roles.
CB: Brent Grimes, Brice McCain
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The Dolphins have depth issues in the secondary, with question marks around the development of Jamar Taylor, Will Davis and Walt Aikens, so it's no surprise that they went out and signed another cornerback—Brice McCain—shortly after releasing veteran and 2014 starter Cortland Finnegan.
Now, with Brent Grimes on one side and McCain on the other, the Dolphins have a pair of small but scrappy cornerbacks who can play a variety of coverages and execute Kevin Coyle's multiple defensive scheme.
Pro Bowler Grimes allowed only a 58.1 percent completion rate but yielded seven touchdowns into his coverage while intercepting five passes, according to ProFootballFocus.com. McCain allowed a high percentage of completions into his coverage last season (65.5) but was only on the wrong end of one touchdown pass against three interceptions and a pass breakup.
The question now will be whether the three young cornerbacks can develop into eventual starters. If any one of Taylor, Davis or Aikens can step his game up, the Dolphins will have a highly competent trio of cornerbacks at their disposal.
S: Reshad Jones, Michael Thomas
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The Dolphins have made a lot of changes at all levels of their defense, but the safety spot is the one where there could be at least some measure of stability.
Reshad Jones is a lock to open the season as the starter at free safety. That much is certain. What's uncertain is who will start next to him. Louis Delmas started last season at safety, but he has not yet been re-signed by the Dolphins or anyone else. Jimmy Wilson was the starting free safety for the first four games of the season, while Jones served a suspension, but Wilson is now gone to the San Diego Chargers.
The Dolphins may not have a true strong safety, but Jones has played that position in the past, and in the modern NFL, the differentiation between a free safety and strong safety gets more and more blurred by the year. The question is, who will the Dolphins add, and what position will they play?
For now, the starter could be Michael Thomas, who has been a bit-part role-player in the secondary for the past couple seasons and would fit as a free safety in their defense. He has the versatility to switch up his role, as well, which is increasingly important in the modern NFL.
ST: Caleb Sturgis, Brandon Fields
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The Dolphins have stability at the two specialists spots, but they should still be looking for an upgrade at one of them. Kicker Caleb Sturgis converted only 78.4 percent of his field-goal attempts in 2014—an improvement over the godawful 76.5 percent conversion rate in 2013 but still an unacceptable number.
Punter Brandon Fields is coming off a down year, where he averaged only 38.2 net yards per punt and 46.3 yards per punt, with 21 of his 58 punts downed inside the 20-yard line—down from 42.4 net yards average, 48.8 yards average and 33 of 88 punts downed inside the 20.
Fields has been among the league's beset punters for years, so the Dolphins are hopeful that he can return to form. If not, the Dolphins could be searching for two new specialists soon.
Unless otherwise noted, all advanced stats obtained via ProFootballFocus.com.
Editor's note: The predicted starter at safety was changed from Jimmy Wilson to Michael Thomas.
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