NFL Draft 2015: 1st-Round Mock Draft Predictions After Free Agency

In keeping with the unpredictable nature of the NFL draft, free agency has been so crazy for all 32 teams that it figures to have a profound impact on everything that was assumed to happen on April 30. 

No team is perfect—just look at how much the reigning champion New England Patriots have changed in the five weeks since beating Seattle—but it feels like there are more needs for everyone to fill in this draft than there have been in a long time. 

The thing that separates great teams from those picking in the top 10 is their ability to plug holes in the draft. That goes beyond the first round, because even though the marquee players come off the board in the first 32 picks, depth in the later rounds is just as important as finding a star in Round 1. 

With all of the top free agents off the board, this year's draft picture is coming into clearer focus. There are still things that can change with six weeks to go, but getting an accurate representation of what to expect is easier. 

Here's an updated projection of the first round, as well as the hottest storylines developing based on what's happened so far this offseason. 

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Leonard Williams, DE, USC
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
4	Oakland Raiders	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
5	Washington	Dante Fowler, DE, Florida
6	New York Jets	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
7	Chicago Bears	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
8	Atlanta Falcons	Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
10	St. Louis Rams	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
11	Minnesota Vikings	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
12	Cleveland Browns	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
13	New Orleans Saints	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
14	Miami Dolphins	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
15	San Francisco 49ers	Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
16	Houston Texans	La'el Collins, OT, LSU
17	San Diego Chargers	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
19	Cleveland Browns (Acquired from Buffalo)	Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Vic Beasley, DE, Clemson
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
23	Detroit Lions	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
24	Arizona Cardinals	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
25	Carolina Panthers	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
26	Baltimore Ravens	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
27	Dallas Cowboys	Alvin Dupree, LB, Kentucky
28	Denver Broncos	Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
29	Indianapolis Colts	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
30	Green Bay Packers	Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State
31	New Orleans Saints (Acquired from Seattle)	Carl Davis, DT, Iowa
32	New England Patriots	Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma

Marcus Mariota: Too High, Too Low or Just Right?

Depending on how you view workouts, with the understanding that the final image is always going to take precedence over everything that came before it, Marcus Mariota is a quarterback on the decline. 

The 2014 Heisman winner had, by most accounts, a mediocre pro day. NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah (via NFL Media PR) said that there was a lot to be desired after Mariota's performance:

Also from NFL Media PR, Mike Mayock said that the nerves seemed to get in Mariota's head:

There have already been some who think that Mariota is too nice to succeed as an NFL quarterback—whatever that means—so the idea of him having nerves on a pro day isn't going to quiet any of those concerns. 

Yet we are all talking about a pro day like it's relevant. Mayock said in 2010 (h/t Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk) that "the best Pro Day I ever saw as a quarterback was JaMarcus Russell." Last year, Teddy Bridgewater looked like a mess and proceeded to drop from a possible No. 1 pick to No. 32. 

Timothy D. Easley/Associated Press

Oh, by the way, all Bridgewater did as a rookie in 2014 is complete 64.4 percent of his passes for 2,919 yards with 14 touchdowns in 12 starts for a team that didn't have any dynamic playmakers at wide receiver. 

Another reason to be skeptical about Mariota possibly dropping in the draft is how well-received his throwing performance was at the scouting combine three weeks earlier. Jeff Legwold of ESPN noted coming out of Indianapolis that Mariota and Jameis Winston earned tremendous marks for their athleticism and throwing. 

As things stand right now, before private workouts with teams begin, Mariota might have to overcome some of the things he didn't do well at his pro day. But the idea that he could end up like Bridgewater, with so many teams in the top 12 picks needing a quarterback, is ridiculous. 

Panic in San Francisco

It turns out that 49ers CEO Jed York and general manager Trent Baalke got more than they may have bargained for in wanting to make sure that this was unequivocally their team.

Jim Harbaugh's departure wasn't expected after all the talk before and during the 2014 season, but there's no way the team could have anticipated losing both Patrick Willis and Chris Borland to retirement when the offseason started. 

Borland's decision is the latest shocker in an offseason full of stunning moves, walking away after one year and telling ESPN's Mark Fainaru-Wada and Steve Fainaru he has long-term health concerns.

Al Bello/Getty Images

No one can fault Borland for making a personal decision he clearly put a lot of thought into. The 49ers just have to find a way to move forward knowing they now have a gaping hole at linebacker, to say nothing of what they might get from NaVorro Bowman, who is coming off a missed season following a serious knee injury. 

There's also the lingering question of what Justin Smith is going to do, though that might not have much impact on San Francisco either way. At 35 years old, Smith is nearing the end of his career anyway, and the team has already signed Darnell Dockett. 

Even though it seems like the sky is falling in San Francisco—which it may end up doing, as there's only so much talent a franchise can lose before taking a step back—Baalke has earned a long leash when it comes to drafting. 

As B/R's Matt Miller noted, Baalke isn't one to reach for a need and has a history of finding special talent in the middle and later rounds:

The Bowman and Borland picks don't include other late-round finds at other positions like Aaron Lynch (2014; fifth round), Chris Culliver (2011; third round) and Kendall Hunter (2011; fourth round). 

This is a roster that's been positioned to absorb some expected losses, like Carlos Hyde taking over for Frank Gore and signing Torrey Smith as an upgrade over Michael Crabtree. 

No one is going to write positive headlines about the 49ers this offseason, but the draft philosophy doesn't have to change. A player like Arik Armstead, who has size and length, would be another valuable addition to a defensive line that will lose Smith sooner or later. 

"Who Dat Nation" Asks, 'Who is That Guy?'

San Francisco is getting all of the headlines right now for its losses, because they weren't expected, but let's go to New Orleans for the rebuilding of the Saints. 

Whether or not Sean Payton and Co. want to say this team is rebuilding is irrelevant. It's obvious after trading Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills that this franchise is prepared to take another step back after a disappointing 7-9 finish last year. 

Granted, the Saints' moves were necessitated by the league's worst cap situation. In December, Bill Barnwell of Grantland wrote the franchise was in "salary-cap hell" because of bad contracts and misguided moves:

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The Saints were about as all in to win in 2014 as a team can be, given how they structured the deals of Byrd and a number of other high-priced veterans on their roster. That would have been fine by Payton and general manager Mickey Loomis if it had delivered a title, but instead, there’s a good chance next year’s Saints team will have less talent than this one. A lot less.

"

In selling Graham away one year after signing him to a long-term deal, the Saints did get two valuable assets from Seattle in center Max Unger and the No. 31 overall pick. 

With the Saints also owning the 13th pick in a defense-heavy draft, they have the ability to add two immediate-impact players at a fraction of what they are overpaying Brandon Browner to do in their secondary. 

Cliff McBride/Getty Images

It's not like this team will go completely in the tank next season. Drew Brees is still a very good quarterback, though, at 36, he does look like a guy on the downside of his career after throwing 17 interceptions last year. Brandin Cooks also showed promise as a rookie before getting hurt. 

Yet you wonder what the Saints really gain by keeping Brees—who holds a $53.8 million combined cap hit for the next two years, per Spotrac—since this isn't a championship contender and needs a lot of work before getting to that level. 

That's not to say the Saints will trade Brees—it'd be nearly impossible to get value because of his cap hit, not to mention the backlash from New Orleans given how popular he is in the city—but it wouldn't be the worst thing this franchise could do. 

Since that's not really on the table, the Saints have to go defense-heavy in this draft. That's the weakest link on this team, by far, and has to be fixed before Brees can give them an opportunity to win another Super Bowl.