March Madness 2015: Breaking Down Toughest Picks in Round of 64

You might have an inkling that a No. 15 seed is going to channel its inner Richmond Spiders and upset a No. 2 seed in the 2015 NCAA tournament. You may even think this is the year a No. 16 seed finally beats a No. 1 seed. All of those types of picks are based on hunches and luck.

There are a few games scheduled for the round of 64 in which the matchups are incredibly tough to call. These picks can make or break your second-round selections.

All Your Bracket Essentials

• Download the Printable Bracket
• Follow the Latest Bracket Updates Live
• Play the Free Bracket Challenge

B/R Image

No. 8 North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. No. 9 LSU Tigers

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

The 8-9 matchups are always tough to call, as both teams usually have a similar record and hail from big-time conferences. There's no exception to that rule in the N.C. State Wolfpack vs. LSU Tigers matchup.

Both teams are 20-game winners who finished just over .500 in their respective conferences. The Wolfpack and Tigers have great talent on their rosters, but as C.J. Moore of Bleacher Report points out, neither has quite lived up to its full potential this season:

"Both teams underachieved this year. On paper, N.C. State has a top-10 backcourt and LSU has a top-10 frontcourt. Let's say talent is close to even—even though I'd give the Wolfpack a slight advantage—and it comes down to coaching. I give N.C. State's Mark Gottfried the advantage over Johnny Jones."

While Moore likes the Wolfpack, there's one specific statistic to consider. N.C. State was just 4-8 in games against ranked teams this season, while LSU was 6-1. It's clear the ACC is a stronger conference than the SEC from top to bottom, so that plays a role. However, the only tournament team LSU fell to was the No. 1 overall, undefeated Kentucky Wildcats, and the Tigers gave them perhaps their biggest scare of the season.

Kentucky escaped with a 71-69 win back on Feb. 10. It could go either way, but the Tigers are my pick.

No. 12 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. No. 5 Utah Utes

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

This one should be high scoring. Both the Utah Utes and Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks can fill it up from beyond the arc. The Utes shoot 19 threes per game and convert 40 percent of their attempts. The Lumberjacks hoist just over 20 per contest and connect on 38.6 percent of them.

This one could come down to which team shoots the best from the outside, or the team that defends best on the perimeter.

Corbett Smith of The Dallas Morning News makes a good point as it pertains to the Lumberjacks' failure to handle tournament teams during the regular season:

"The Lumberjacks are 28-1 after a three-game losing streak—all to tourney teams (Northern Iowa, Xavier, Baylor)—in late November."

As I mentioned, it is hard to ignore this type of track record heading into the tournament. It's even more difficult when the team hails from a smaller conference, as the Lumberjacks do. Still, any time you have two excellent shooting teams, anything can happen. This is also a 5-12 matchup, which has been a huge source of upsets over the years.

No. 7 Virginia Commonwealth Rams vs. No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes

Zach Gibson/Associated Press

The Ohio State Buckeyes will have the best player on the court in D'Angelo Russell, but will he be able to lead the Bucks past the well-coached and defensive-minded VCU Rams? Rams head coach Shaka Smart has quickly garnered a reputation as one of the country's best strategists, and he's undoubtedly devised a way to slow down Russell.

ESPN Stats & Info points out Ohio State's higher Basketball Power Index (BPI), but VCU Ram Nation shows us how much better the Rams have done against tournament teams.

The bottom line here is that Russell has to get help for his team to win. Sam Thompson or another of Russell's upperclassmen teammates must step up to give Ohio State a second formidable scoring option.

If the Bucks find themselves too dependent on Russell, the offense will bog down and Ohio State will struggle.

Follow Brian Mazique on Twitter. Basketball is awesome.