
March Madness 2015: Complete Odds and Final Four Picks for NCAA Tournament
As always, Las Vegas seems to have the right idea.
With the March Madness bracket in stone and the First Four ready to dance Tuesday, oddsmakers are hard at work crafting championship lines based on a wild number of factors.
This can include injuries, momentum, coaching styles, team styles and potential bracket matchups right on down to the Final Four.
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Speaking of the Final Four, now is a good time to jump on favorable odds by first nailing down predictions about which teams make it through. Interestingly enough, these predictions must stem from the same qualifiers Las Vegas uses.
To swing the odds in bettors' favor against the house, let's attempt the feat.
Key Tournament Information
Dates: March 17–April 6
Channels: CBS, TBS, TNT and truTV
Live Stream: March Madness Live
All Your Bracket Essentials
| Kentucky | 1-1 |
| Wisconsin | 13-2 |
| Duke | 13-2 |
| Villanova | 8-1 |
| Arizona | 12-1 |
| Virginia | 17-1 |
| Gonzaga | 22-1 |
| North Carolina | 25-1 |
| Iowa State | 35-1 |
| Louisville | 50-1 |
Odds courtesy of Odd Shark on March 17 at 9 a.m. ET.
Final Four Breakdown
Get the obvious out of the way first—Kentucky will make the Final Four.
There's no reason to take any other team from the Midwest unless bettors feel a shocking amount of confidence that a team such as Maryland or Notre Dame stands a chance. Even then, it's not worth ruining a whole bracket over, right?
As ESPN Stats & Info records, history seems to smile upon those teams touting a goose egg in the loss column on the way to the Big Dance:
This isn't an ordinary team, though.
Kentucky's handled business against 22 RPI Top 100 teams this year, per ESPN's RPI profile. Forget individuals, the Wildcats rank fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency and second in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom.com, meaning they are one of the lone teams to squeeze the absolute most out of every possession.
It helps the selection committee rewarded Kentucky for its undefeated season. There's no real challenge in the Midwest, as even Maryland, Notre Dame and Kansas in top form won't have enough to maneuver around Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein in the paint or keep up with a deep backcourt.
By comparison, Wisconsin's path in the West is much tougher.
Frank Kaminsky (18.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.6 blocks per game) leads the streaking Badgers, a team that ranks No. 1 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom.com.

The Badgers are losers in just three games for a reason. One was without Kaminsky. One came while Duke shot 65 percent from the floor. The other took a heroic individual performance.
Second-seeded Arizona is the toughest task for Wisconsin, and that's if the Wildcats can escape a side including VCU, Xavier, Baylor and others.
The other two Final Four participants are less obvious.
In the South, by far the easiest region, Gonzaga seems to have the green light. The second-seeded Bulldogs rank eighth in RPI with a 9-2 mark against the RPI Top 100. Led by junior Kyle Wiltjer and his 16.7 points per game, the Bulldogs rank sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency and rank 10th at 79.1 points per game.
The lone noteworthy hurdle is No. 1 Duke although Sharon Katz and Alok Pattani of ESPN Stats & Information caution seed isn't everything in the South:
"Gonzaga and Virginia are No. 2 seeds that could make some noise. Gonzaga is in the easiest region, based on average BPI rank, and has the third-best chance to reach the Final Four. Duke is the No. 1 seed in Gonzaga's region, but the Blue Devils have a lower BPI ranking than the Zags and less than a 30 percent chance to advance out of the South region.
"
Now to the East, perhaps the most unpredictable of the bunch.
Villanova is a great team at the top with Virginia close behind. Teams such as LSU, Louisville, Providence, Oklahoma and Michigan State are all capable of big runs.
It's a tough crowd, but it's impossible to ignore a Rick Pitino-coached team.
The Cardinals, 24-8, rank 21st in RPI but came in No. 22 in strength of schedule. Defense can win championships in the tournament as well, so it's worth pointing out a No. 6 rank in adjusted defensive efficiency. Also of note are wins against North Carolina, Ohio State, Indiana, Virginia and a close call against Kentucky.
On the offensive end of the court, few have been able to slow sophomore guard Terry Rozier, who averages 17.1 points and 5.3 rebounds. Even fewer have been able to stop explosive junior forward Montrezl Harrell, owner of 15.7 points and 9.5 boards.
As for the draw, Matt Jones of KentuckySportsradio.com puts it best:
It will take sneaking past a few upset-minded teams and the top seed in the East, but at the above odds, it's hard to hate a disciplined team that suffocates offenses with stringent defense.
Like the other three Final Four picks, Louisville pairs a few star players with a seasoned coach, loads of experience, discipline and tournament-best strengths to lean on in crunch time.
Each year, the above tandem of factors, in time, spits out a Final Four worthy of the stage.
Prediction: Kentucky, Wisconsin, Louisville and Gonzaga make the Final Four.
Stats and info are courtesy of ESPN unless otherwise specified.



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