
NCAA Bracket 2015: Predictions for March Madness Title Favorites
Just how safe are the March Madness favorites?
Kentucky seems just fine, even more so after Selection Sunday thanks to a cakewalk of a bracket gifted down by the committee.
Then again, right there is the line of thinking that leaves anyone and everyone up for surprise, in large part helping to birth the "madness" of the tournament in the first place.
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No favorite is safe. The bracket may have reached for big names and big brands while sending some deserving teams to the NIT, but Tuesday still begins the Big Dance. All 68 teams are contenders, and anything can happen.
"Favorites" better be ready for each team's best shot.
Key Tournament Information
Dates: March 17—April 6
Channels: CBS, TBS, TNT and truTV
Live Stream: March Madness Live
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Fate of the Favorites
Duke
Can Duke handle a team's best shot when it matters?
Mike Krzyzewski will have his team ready, yes. Freshman Jahlil Okafor, who averages 17.7 points and 9.0 rebounds per game, will put on a show. But are the Blue Devils, as a whole, contenders capable of reaching the Final Four?
There seems to be a growing consensus that the Blue Devils are the weakest No. 1 seed of the bunch. Not winning the ACC regular-season title or tournament does these things, no matter the fact that the Blue Devils rank fifth in ESPN's RPI rankings with a 7-2 mark against the RPI Top 25.
In fact, ESPN Stats & Info's advanced metrics suggest that lesser seeds in the Blue Devils' region stand a better chance at making a deep run:
The notion makes some sense. The last time that the globe saw Duke, the team was on the wrong side of a 10-point loss to Notre Dame. Soft defense helped the Fighting Irish shoot 50 percent from the field and hit the charity stripe 25 times.
Such soft play won't cut it in the South region. The winner of San Diego State-St. John's may provide some issues, and the presence of others such as Utah, Stephen F. Austin, Iowa State and Gonzaga mean the Blue Devils have their work cut out for them.
By the time the Blue Devils reach the Elite Eight, it's going to be too late. Duke is vulnerable on the defensive end of the court—particularly in the paint—which teams will exploit to send them home.
Prediction: Duke advances to the Elite Eight.
Wisconsin
At first pass, the Wisconsin Badgers are in serious trouble.
The West part of the bracket is a harsh mistress containing Oregon, Arkansas, North Carolina, Xavier, Baylor, VCU and Arizona, among others.
Then again, Bo Ryan's team ranks second, right behind Kentucky, on the RPI list with a 19-2 record against the RPI Top 100.
Call the Badgers' methodical, sometimes-plodding style boring, but it works. Yahoo Sports' Scott Pianowski puts it best:
The proof is there for those who seek it.
Over at kenpom.com, the Badgers rank No. 1 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, meaning no team does a better job of squeezing the absolute most out of every trip down the court.
Of course, the main reason for this is Frank Kaminsky, who is perhaps on his way to some individual hardware thanks to averages of 18.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.6 blocks per game while shooting 55 percent from the field.
If there is one team not named Kentucky that can run the West gauntlet, it's Wisconsin. While predictable, the region will come down to Wisconsin-Arizona, where an individual star in Kaminsky and an efficient attack will be enough to send the Badgers through.
Though that doesn't mean that the Badgers will have enough to upend the next team on this list.
Prediction: Wisconsin advances to the title game before losing.
Kentucky
Feel free to call it destiny.
The Kentucky Wildcats are an unstoppable force of nature. Unlike, say, Wisconsin, there's no single star player who will hoist the team onto his shoulders.
That is what makes John Calipari's squad so impressive. The starting five can run most teams off the floor (the Wildcats sent 22 RPI Top 100 teams packing this year). The rotation can be as deep as nine players, though, and every single one of those nine could start for most teams in the Big Dance.
The team plays selfless, too. Say an opponent is locking down the backcourt. Fine. Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein, a twin-towers look no team can slow down, takes the burden. Vice versa applies, too.
Facing Kentucky is like running into a buzz saw, which is why quotes such as this one provided by USA Today's Nicole Auerbach pop up:
Maybe this is overselling. The Wildcats can be beaten. A pair of sloppy performances at the start of SEC play this season, in which Kentucky struggled to win the battles on the glass, produced two near-upsets.
Look at the Midwest part of the bracket, though. It's no problem. Notre Dame, a No. 3 seed, could provide a serious threat should the team make it far enough. Kansas, as a No. 2 seed, isn't intimidating, but the pressure of the spotlight could cause a hiccup.
Sports Illustrated's Seth Davis makes the most sense:
As tough as those last few games may be, there's nothing to suggest that the Wildcats will experience a serious enough hiccup to jeopardize their perfect season.
The title game will be Kentucky's biggest test, but with as many as three NBA first-round picks in the paint and a deep backcourt knocking down shots, an undefeated season and a title seem to be a foregone conclusion at this point.
It's not madness—just the perfect symphony of recruiting, coaching and team-based basketball.
Prediction: Kentucky wins the tournament.
Stats and info are courtesy of ESPN unless otherwise specified.



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