Final Four Predictions 2015: Odds and Picks for Top NCAA Tournament Teams

March Madness has certainly fulfilled its moniker in recent seasons. No Final Four has had more than a single No. 1 seed since 2009, and three of the past four years have seen a team seeded eighth or worse win its regional. The NCAA tournament thrills because of its high degree of variability, and recently, the underdogs have stolen a sizable portion of the spotlight.

Undefeated Kentucky stands out as the ultimate Goliath this season, but the rest of the field appears to boast a significant amount of parity. We may not know which team will challenge John Calipari’s squad, but the odds suggest that someone will push the 34-0 Wildcats to the brink.

From a bettor’s perspective, March Madness brings a flurry of activity, which means that odds will swing far more than they do in a typical regular-season game. That provides a window of opportunity for savvy bettors before the tournament actually opens, and taking a look at the top 15 championship odds, via Odds Shark, a few teams stand out for their values:

Team	Odds
Kentucky	6-5
Arizona	15-2
Wisconsin	17-2
Duke	9-1
Villanova	10-1
Virginia	10-1
Gonzaga	16-1
Notre Dame	25-1
Iowa State	33-1
Utah	33-1
Kansas	40-1
Michigan State	40-1
North Carolina	50-1
Baylor	50-1
Oklahoma	50-1

Dissecting the best Final Four bets with an eye on value, here’s a pre-tournament look at the teams most likely to pay off your bets in two weeks.

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Midwest: Kentucky Wildcats

Perhaps this is the obvious choice, but it’s hard to remember a team as dominant as this Kentucky squad. The 1990-91 UNLV squad, which also entered the NCAA tourney undefeated, pops to mind. Comparing the 2015 Wildcats to recent championship favorites illustrates an eye-popping measure of how dominant Kentucky has been:

When examining the region, second-seeded Kansas was obliterated at Rupp Arena, losing by 32 (albeit back on Nov. 18), and the Jayhawks enter without Cliff Alexander and a banged-up Perry Ellis. No. 3 seed Notre Dame looks like the only team that could potentially catch fire against Kentucky, as College Basketball Talk’s Rob Dauster opines:

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Teams that can dial it up from deep are always a threat, which is why No. 3 seed Notre Dame may actually be the better sleeper pick to come out of the region. They have almost no chance of slowing down Kentucky in the paint or of keeping them off of the offensive glass, but Jerian Grant is a serious threat to be this year’s Shabazz Napier, and he’s surrounded by some flat out snipers.

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Additionally, looking at the opposite end of the spectrum, Texas possesses the big men to compete against Kentucky’s towering frontcourt in Myles Turner and Cameron Ridley. However, the Longhorns have been frustratingly erratic, having suffered two separate four-game losing streaks, and would need to pull three consecutive upsets just to earn a Kentucky matchup.

Thus, the tourney’s top seed shouldn’t face too many landmines en route to Indianapolis. Kentucky’s championship odds may not offer a ton of value, but given that the Cats have the softest road to the Final Four, it’s not unreasonable to place a hefty wager on them to go undefeated.

West: Arizona Wildcats

According to FiveThirtyEight’s projections, no No. 2 seed has a better chance of reaching the Final Four than Arizona. The Pac-12 champs actually stand as 46 percent favorites to come out of the regional, significantly higher than the 33 percent odds given to top seed Wisconsin.

Though Sean Miller’s squad earned the top No. 2 seed, there’s evidence that suggests they should have been on the top line. KenPom ranks the Wildcats as the second-best team in the nation, as Arizona, Kentucky and Villanova were the only teams in the country to post top-15 efficiency ratings on offense and defense during the regular season.

With a relatively weak draw beyond the Badgers, the West looks likeliest to put its top two seeds through to the Elite Eight:

In that potential rematch of last year’s Elite Eight, Arizona would appear well-equipped to keep up with Wisconsin’s nation-leading offense. With Traevon Jackson out since Jan. 11 with a foot injury and unlikely to play more than a reserve role, Zona’s backcourt of T.J. McConnell and leading scorer Stanley Johnson could put them over the top.

Coupled with enviable wing depth, the Wildcats look like the deepest all-around squad outside of Lexington. The Pac-12 may have been the weakest power conference, and narrow nonconference wins over Gonzaga and San Diego State may raise some skepticism. Still, Arizona’s draw gives it an excellent chance of reaching the Final Four and earning a potential matchup against Kentucky.

East: Virginia Cavaliers

If defense wins championships, then the ACC regular-season champs must be among the favorites. Virginia had the top-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation, according to KenPom; coupled with the third-slowest pace in the nation, the Cavs can be an aesthetically brutal yet highly effective squad.

From the Cavaliers’ perspective, most of the toughest matchups could actually come from the lower seeds. While third-seeded Oklahoma and fourth-seeded Louisville both rank outside of the top 50 in offensive efficiency, Michigan State and Northern Iowa both rank in the top 15. The No. 7 Spartans are in line to face the Cavs in the round of 32, a matchup the numbers suggest could be a potential pitfall: 

Virginia’s Final Four hopes may ultimately boil down to Justin Anderson, who missed the end of the regular season with a broken finger and appendectomy. Anderson returned to play in the team’s two ACC tournament games, but he played just 26 combined minutes and missed all six shots he took.

Given that Anderson is Virginia’s best shooter and an indispensable source of offense for a team that plays at a molasses-slow pace, his health could become a central storyline within the first weekend, especially if UVA plays Michigan State. If Anderson is healthy, though, Virginia appears to hold some matchup advantages over its East Region foes.

South: Iowa State Cyclones

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In upsetting Kansas for the Big 12 title, Iowa State has emerged as a trendy sleeper pick in Duke’s region. The Cyclones’ win was the latest in a string of comebacks, as Iowa State erased deficits in each of its five games to end the season: 

Missing out on a No. 2 seed may have actually played in its favor. Instead of landing in Kentucky’s region as the weakest No. 2, the Cyclones get the Blue Devils, who were a controversial top-seed choice, and Gonzaga, which has lost in the second round five years in a row.

A tougher challenge could actually come from in-state rival Iowa, which won six straight to close the regular season before a baffling Big Ten tournament defeat to Penn State. That upset likely dropped the Hawkeyes’ seed a couple of spots, but it set up a potential Sweet 16 matchup against the Cyclones.

Iowa State is as battle-tested as any team in the field, having won nine games against teams that were ranked at the time of the matchup, including two over Kansas, Oklahoma and West Virginia. With junior forward Georges Niang healthy for this year’s run after missing last season’s tournament with a broken foot, look for the Cyclones to improve on their Sweet 16 run from 2014.