March Madness 2015: Underrated Teams to Watch in This Year's Bracket

Identifying the lowest seeds that will enjoy the most March Madness success marks the key to any successful bracket.

Correctly picked Kentucky to make the Final Four? Wow, no way. How did you pull that off? That separates your picks from the three people in your pool. One flipped a coin for every game, another went to Purdue and the last thought it'd be funny to have the undefeated squad lose its first tournament bout.

A few underdogs will inflict chaos on the bracket; otherwise, the whole "Madness" moniker wouldn't make any sense. These three teams are far from Cinderella schools, but they're strong bets to surpass expectations.

Full Bracket

All Your Bracket Essentials

• Download the Printable Bracket
• Play the Free Bracket Challenge 

Teams to Watch

Utah

A No. 3 seed masquerading as a No. 5, Utah is the not only the safest bet to avoid the No. 12-seed wrath but the best candidate to travel deep through the tournament.

Limping to the final line, Larry Krystkowiak's squad lost three of its final five games. After a surprising 77-68 defeat against Washington on March 7, the coach expressed hope to The Salt Lake Tribune's Kyle Goon of the letdown lighting a fire under his team:

Slow finish aside, the full body of work remains intact. The Runnin' Utes rank No. 8 in KenPom.com's team efficiency ratings and No. 12 in ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI). By either measure, they're underrated as the South's No. 5 seed.

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Utah has a 62 percent probability of making the Sweet 16 and 27 percent odds of lasting until the Elite Eight. Those chances are far greater than its same-seeded peers.

Team	Sweet 16	Elite Eight	Region
Utah	62 %	27 %	South
Northern Iowa	43 %	10%	East
West Virginia	39 %	5 %	Midwest
Arkansas	27 %	7 %	West

Four of the Utes' eight losses—including defeats to Arizona and Kansas—came by six points of fewer, so they can hang with anyone. Their eighth-rated adjusted defense, via KenPom.com, will stymie Stephen F. Austin's attempt at another early-round upset. 

Despite concluding the year with a worse record, national rank and BPI, Georgetown earned a higher seed. Utah might still enter that third-round meeting with the No. 4 Hoyas as the favorites, and upsetting the erratic Duke Blue Devils is feasible. 

Davidson

No, Iowa, Stephen Curry is not around to replicate Davidson's spectacular 2008 tournament run.

Yet the Wildcats are in a great position to win their first March Madness game since the NBA MVP candidate left. The BPI data, according to ESPN Stats & Info, pegs the No. 10 seed as the favorite:

Those numbers suggest a clear blueprint to besting Iowa: run them out of the gym. Much like Curry's Warriors, the Wildcats operate at warp speed, utilizing their quickness and sharp-shooting guards

They're not the Splash Brothers, but Jack Gibbs and Tyler Kalinoski post a combined 33.3 points per game with deadly long-range shooting.

Gonzaga is getting an unfair shake due to past struggles, so Davidson is realistically good for one upset. If Gibbs and Kalinoski catch fire, however, they could bust some brackets. 

Texas

It's easy to understand why the selection committee saddled Texas with a No. 11 seed. Advanced stats can't completely drown out a 20-13 record and 8-10 mark in conference play. The Longhorns also went 3-13 against clubs in ESPN's BPI Top 50, which exhibits their brutal schedule but also their limited upside.

But it's not like elite opponents pulverized them. During their last six losses, all single-digit defeats against nationally ranked competitors from the Big 12, they were outscored by an average of 4.3 points. 

Chris Covatta/Getty Images

Anything can happen during the final ticks of a nail-biter. While Butler is no easy draw, Texas resides higher on KenPom.com's team ratings. Both squads have double-digit losses due to close defeats, so it's smart to gamble on the lower seed in an even slate.

A Big 12 titan topping the former mid-conference over-achiever is far from a fairy tale. In fact, Texas is actually a 1.5-point favorite as of Monday night, according to Odds Shark.

Texas has the size to bully Butler and the talent to test Notre Dame during the ensuing round.