NFL Mock Draft 2015: Updated Projections After 1st Week of Free Agency
Now that the first week of free agency is the in the books, it is time for an updated NFL mock draft. This latest projection is based on the big moves the teams have been making to shuffle players between rosters. Obviously, teams are making these deals with the understanding that it only takes a few cogent moves to turn a pretender into a contender.
Once again, it is important to note that any projection is a predictive tool. These picks are more about who the teams would take as opposed to who I would select if I were in charge of these franchises. So many teams have multiple needs that their first-round pick is only one small piece of the puzzle.
One note about this draft class: While this group is very good, some unique aspects to this class create some distinct looks in terms of player distribution. Some of the high-profile positions like offensive tackle and cornerback aren't as well-represented, while spots like edge-rusher and wide receiver are well-represented at the top.
With that, sit back and enjoy this latest projection.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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The Pick: Jameis Winston, QB Florida State
At this point, it is a given that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to draft one of the top two quarterbacks with the first overall pick. The only real question at this point is whether it is going to be Oregon’s Marcus Mariota or Florida State’s Jameis Winston.
One could make a case for either player at this point. Winston looks to have more NFL polish and a skill set broad enough to have him ready to contribute earlier. He has a tremendous college resume and has shown elite leadership ability.
On the other side, Mariota is an elite athlete. His ability to impact the game with his legs as well as his arm has become his calling card and is as good as any quarterback since the Washington Redskins drafted Robert Griffin in 2012. This is a blessing and a curse for Mariota, as Griffin has struggled to adapt to the NFL game.
For this reason, the pick here is Winston. Some team is going to get a great prospect in Mariota, but the Buccaneers are working hard to get the defense in order via free agency, which means the offense can’t let them down. Right now, Winston gives this current offense a better chance to win, so he is the pick.
2. Tennessee Titans
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The Pick: Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon
Mark me down as one of those who don’t think the Tennessee Titans are fully committed to the idea of quarterback Zach Mettenberger leading this team to the promised land. So with that, let’s talk about a new quarterback.
Tennessee got burned back in 2011 when it spent the No. 8 pick on Jake Locker. He was raw and struggled with production even in college. He was never able to get up to speed in the NFL. However, when you watch Oregon’s Marcus Mariota, you see much more polish and poise, the likes of which Locker never showed.
As tempting as it might be for the Titans to draft one of the defensive stars of this draft, there is just no way this team can make legitimate progress without an upgrade at quarterback. Adding a player like Mariota means the Titans offensive coaches must be willing to implement an offense that fits his skills and not just try to wedge him into a traditional offense.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
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The Pick: Dante Fowler, Jr. DE/LB Florida
Of the top teams, the Jacksonville Jaguars are the first that have had a free-agent signing that will impact the top of the round. They upgraded their interior defensive line with the signing of defensive tackle Jared Odrick. The automatic pick of USC defensive tackle Leonard Williams no longer exists.
The Jaguars made a big splash on offense by acquiring tight end Julius Thomas in order to give quarterback Blake Bortles a weapon. And with the addition of Odrick, the Jaguars can instead focus on adding an edge player with the ability to get after the quarterback.
For this scheme, getting a player with a little more beef is a bonus. There are some elite edge players in this draft, and so any number of the top guys are in play here. However, getting an explosive edge-rusher who also happens to be a 261-pound freakish athlete is a no-brainer.
Florida’s Dante Fowler Jr. put on a show at the scouting combine, which further enhanced his draft stock. Keeping in mind that he doesn’t have tremendous film to back up his credentials, if you dig you'll see flashes of production that make NFL defensive coordinators drool.
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4. Oakland Raiders
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The Pick: Leonard Williams, DT USC
If this is how the top of the round plays out, the Oakland Raiders are going to have some excellent options. Most assume that USC defensive tackle Leonard Williams will be off the board before the Raiders can have a shot to make the pick. This would mean the Raiders would turn to wide receiver and give quarterback Derek Carr another weapon.
So, in this scenario, Williams is there, as well as the top wide receivers. This could mean that the Raiders take this opportunity to slide back a pick or two and still get an ideal prospect. For this mock, Williams is the pick because the relative depth at defensive tackle and wide receiver is so different.
What does Williams mean for the Raiders? He can pair up with the massive Dan Williams on the inside and absolutely crush the interiors of opposing offensive lines. Leonard Williams' power game is unmatched in this draft and would be a welcome addition next to defensive end Justin Tuck.
This still leaves a hole at wide receiver; however, the depth at the position in the second round is far superior to that of defensive tackle. It's better to take Williams in the first and then a player like Auburn wide receiver Sammie Coates in the second than to take a wide receiver here and whoever is left at defensive tackle in Round 2.
5. Washington Redskins
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The Pick: Randy Gregory, LB Nebraska
The front office of the Washington Redskins recognized that it had major work to do on the defensive line. The additions of Stephen Paea and Terrance Knighton provide some serious beef up front. Does all this attention toward the defense in free agency mean the Redskins will look to offense in the draft?
Not in the first round. With wide receiver DeSean Jackson still in the mix, the need for a wide receiver is slightly diminished. That means the Redskins can continue to build the defense. With this pick, Washington can bring in a player to line up opposite outside linebacker Ryan Kerrigan to get after the quarterback.
Nebraska edge Randy Gregory is a terror coming around the corner. With exceptional length and plus agility and balance, he poses a particular threat for opposing offenses. However, for the Redskins' 3-4 defense, it is Gregory’s fluidity in space and ability to drop into coverage that make him an easy choice here.
6. New York Jets
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The Pick: Amari Cooper, WR Alabama
A lot of folks like to poke fun at the New York Jets, but you can see this offseason that things are starting to take a turn. The Jets have made serious upgrades along the offensive line as well as the defensive secondary. And with what appears to be no real interest in looking for a rookie quarterback, the Jets can look for some weapons.
Whether this pick is Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper or West Virginia’s Kevin White will depend on the preference in terms of style of the Jets staff. In terms of a better overall package, Cooper gets the nod. The Alabama star is a much more polished route-runner, plays with a much more complex route tree and is dynamic in the open field.
Whomever the Jets trot out under center in 2015, Cooper will become an ideal pairing with wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Marshall’s 6'4" size and physical style will pair perfectly with Cooper’s smooth style and polish.
7. Chicago Bears
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The Pick: Kevin White, WR West Virginia
With the departure of wide receiver Brandon Marshall, the primary need for the Chicago Bears points squarely at finding his replacement. Even with the signing of Eddie Royal, the Bears cannot pass on an elite talent at this point in the round.
West Virginia wide receiver Kevin White is a nightmare for opposing defenses. Even with elite top-end speed, White would just as soon overpower cornerbacks as run past them. For a quarterback, it is a comfort to have a guy like White with enormous catch radius and powerful hands.
Obviously, the Bears could turn their attention to the defensive side of the football. If they do, don’t rule out a massive defensive tackle like Washington's Danny Shelton or an edge player like Clemson’s Vic Beasley.
8. Atlanta Falcons
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The Pick: Shane Ray, LB Missouri
There are big defensive lines, and then there is the Atlanta Falcons defensive line. The Falcons are trotting a group with a 281-pound defensive end on one side (Adrian Clayborn) and a 296-pound defensive end on the other (Tyson Jackson)
What Atlanta needs is a hybrid outside linebacker who can line up on the weak side and be an explosive pass-rushing defensive end in sub-packages. The best player on the board who fits the bill is Missouri defensive end/linebacker hybrid Shane Ray.
Ray is a great mix of instincts and technique paired with dynamic athleticism. His ability to line up with his hand on the ground or stand up and play in space would give Atlanta a great deal of options when it comes to attacking various offensive formations.
9. New York Giants
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The Pick: Danny Shelton, DT Washington
There are several directions the New York Giants could go with this pick. If a particular offensive tackle caught their eye, that would certainly be a Giants type of pick. Or, the New York front office might feel that a pass-rushing defensive end is the best value here and target that position instead.
However, for this simulation, searching for the best player available and filling a need meet in Washington defensive tackle Danny Shelton. At 6'2", 339 pounds, he is a massive human being with tremendous power and surprising agility. Lined up next to defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins, Shelton would see enough single blocks to be disruptive in the middle.
10. St. Louis Rams
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The Pick: Andrus Peat, OT Stanford
With the addition of defensive tackle Nick Fairley, the St. Louis Rams are building a truly dominant defense. The addition of Fairley as part of that interior rotation is going to help out the secondary in 2015.
The Rams have also made big moves on offense by trading quarterback Sam Bradford to the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for quarterback Nick Foles. While the difference in talent is of some debate, the move gives the offense a fresh look, which should help get things on track.
The one spot where the Rams are in a position to add an impact player is at right tackle. Stanford tackle Andrus Peat is a mauling run-blocker with excellent feet. With the left tackle spot seemingly set with Greg Robinson, adding Peat would give the Rams an impressive pair of bookends.
11. Minnesota Vikings
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The Pick: DeVante Parker, WR Louisville
It looks like the Minnesota Vikings are hoping to spark their offense by switching things up at wide receiver. The Vikings traded for Mike Wallace from the Miami Dolphins and subsequently released veteran wide receiver Greg Jennings. Not sure what the end game is here for the Vikings, but at least it doesn’t change the team’s draft needs.
I have been consistent with the thought that adding Louisville wide receiver DeVante Parker here would be the best thing that could happen to a young star quarterback like Teddy Bridgewater. And in this iteration of the draft, I will continue to maintain that. Parker and Bridgewater know each other well, and Parker has an all-around game that is as good as any in the draft.
12. Cleveland Browns
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The Pick: D.J. Humphries, OT Florida
If the draft plays out like this, the Cleveland Browns could wind up in a bit of a predicament. The three big wide receivers are gone as well as the top nose tackle. In this case, the Browns should look to the offensive line to try to upgrade their right tackle spot with a player who can eventually replace left tackle Joe Thomas.
Florida tackle D.J. Humphries is an elite athlete with limited experience. His upside is tremendous, and he has triangle numbers that no coach can teach. Starting on the right side would give Humphries time to hone the subtleties of his game and then make his move to the left side when he's ready.
13. New Orleans Saints
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The Pick: La’el Collins, OT LSU
There are all kinds of moves happening with the New Orleans Saints. They have focused the bulk of their free-agent activity on improving the defense with veterans. That means this pick, and the No. 32 pick they acquired for tight end Jimmy Graham, need to focus on the offensive side of the football.
With several questions along the offensive line, adding a player like LSU tackle La’el Collins makes a lot of sense. He has the footwork and technique to start at right tackle, plus the power and short-area burst to dominate at guard. Either way, the Saints can plug Collins in and make that offensive line better.
14. Miami Dolphins
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The Pick: Vic Beasley, DE/LB Clemson
This is another pick where I labored over one of two positions as best fit as well as best value The Miami Dolphins are making serious moves all over the field to improve their team. However, outside linebacker and safety are the primary needs. When I looked at the best players at each position, the value argument became moot.
If the Dolphins snatch up Clemson’s Vic Beasley, then they might have the steal of the first round. He was primarily a pass-rush defensive end in college, but he has the size (6'3", 246 lbs), speed (4.53 40-yard dash) and overall athleticism to stand up and play a more traditional outside linebacker position in the NFL. However, it’s the work he will do in sub-packages where he can maximize his skills as a pass-rushing edge player that will get Dolphins fans excited.
15. San Francisco 49ers
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The Pick: Brandon Scherff, OT Iowa
With the departure of guard Mike Iupati, offensive line moves up higher on the list of priorities for the San Francisco 49ers. The sudden retirement of linebacker Patrick Willis is another huge blow for the team but one that cannot be properly addressed in this round.
Fortunately, replacing Iupati is much easier with this draft class. Iowa tackle Brandon Scherff is a tremendous prospect who slides a little due to the other talent in this class. He has all the power and skill to play guard or tackle, and with the 49ers 'offensive line situation, he would be welcome to play either spot.
16. Houston Texans
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The Pick: Dorial Green-Beckham, WR Oklahoma
One of the most surprising moves of the offseason has been the Houston Texans' cutting ties with wide receiver Andre Johnson. He has been the face of this franchise for so long that it is hard to think about him in another uniform. The other big move for the Texans was the signing of quarterback Brian Hoyer.
Minus their big weapon and with a new quarterback, adding a wide receiver makes perfect sense. If you were building a wide receiver in a lab, he might end up looking exactly like Oklahoma wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham. He has a dominant physical frame and elite athletic ability.
Green-Beckham and all that length would be Hoyer’s favorite target in a hurry. DGB’s size (6'5", 237 lbs) and skill set would really be a great setup for wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins on the other side.
17. San Diego Chargers
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The Pick: Melvin Gordon III, RB Wisconsin
With the loss of running Ryan Mathews, running back becomes the top need for the San Diego Chargers. Does that mean they should spend their first-round pick on a replacement? For this scenario, the answer is yes. With a quarterback like Philip Rivers, you must give him a viable run game to help maximize his skills.
With Georgia running back Todd Gurley still recovering from injury, Wisconsin star Melvin Gordon III is the top running back and first off the board. Gordon’s vision is tremendous, and he is able to exploit even small creases for big games. He is almost unstoppable when there is a cutback lane, and with his acceleration and speed, he gets to the second level before anyone knows he is gone.
18 Kansas City Chiefs
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The Pick: Landon Collins, S Alabama
With the loss of safety Eric Berry last season, the Kansas City Chiefs recognize that safety is now their top need. Could they go for help on the offensive line or even add another wide receiver? Sure, but if the Chiefs want bang for their buck, a safety is the pick.
Alabama's Landon Collins would make an ideal strong safety for the Chiefs opposite free safety Husain Abdullah. Collins has elite size (6'0", 228 lbs) and comes downhill like a heat-seeking missile. The Chiefs want that middle safety to intimidate wide receivers who dare go across the middle, and Collins is just the hammer for that role.
19. Cleveland Browns (From Buffalo)
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The Pick: Jaelen Strong, WR Arizona State
There is some irony in the Cleveland Browns using the pick they got from the Buffalo Bills to draft a wide receiver, especially when you consider that the Bills made that trade to go up and draft wide receiver Sammy Watkins.
I’m not sure what the Browns offense is going to look like, but including Arizona State wide receiver Jaelen Strong can’t be a bad thing. He has an NFL body and great tool belt to pull from.
One thing that really stood out on film with Strong is that regardless of the coverage or volume of defenders the opposition sent at him, he continued to find ways to get open and make catches. This is exactly what a young quarterback needs.
20. Philadelphia Eagles
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The Pick: Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State
I seriously considered a different position here, but the value was just too good. Even with Walter Thurmond and Byron Maxwell as the starting cornerbacks, Michigan State cornerback Trae Waynes represents the best player on the board. The idea that a player the caliber of Waynes could be the nickel cornerback would illustrate just how deep the Eagles secondary is.
If the Eagles opted to draft for need instead, they could bring in a pass-rushing outside linebacker for their 3-4 defense. Or they could add the next best wide receiver on the board to pair up with Jordan Matthews and Riley Cooper. However, those are both spots to address later, and Waynes is just too talented to pass up.
21. Cincinnati Bengals
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The Pick: Ereck Flowers, OT Miami
With the amount of talent the Cincinnati Bengals have, they have a bit of freedom with how they spend this pick. Looking at the various units, offensive line seems to feature some relative value in the draft at this point while also being a need for the team.
There’s a real chance that when the dust settles on the 2015 offensive tackle class, Miami offensive tackle Ereck Flowers will be the best player of the group. He flashes some ridiculous skill at times and just needs to put it all together on a consistent basis.
If the Bengals pass on an offensive tackle, it would be to draft a cornerback. However, the relative depth of the cornerback class makes it easy to go with the offensive tackle in Round 1 and wait for help in the secondary.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers
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The Pick: Bud Dupree, DE/LB Kentucky
If the season started today, Jarvis Jones and Arthur Moats would be the starting outside linebackers for the Steelers. This scenario illustrates just how desperate the Steelers are at the position. Above everything else, this team must add help on the outside.
It would be ideal if Kentucky defensive end/linebacker Bud Dupree makes it this far. He has the size (6’4”, 269 lbs) and athleticism (4.56 40-yard dash) to dominate on the outside. With the Steelers transitioning to more hybrid fronts in 2015, Dupree’s size would give him a clear edge over some of the smaller pass-rushing outside linebackers in the draft.
23. Detroit Lions
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The Pick: Malcom Brown, DT Texas
The interior of the Detroit Lions defensive line took a big hit with the losses of both Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley, so there’s a massive void in the middle of the defense. The addition of defensive tackle Haloti Ngata is great, but for all his power, the Lions still need someone in the middle who can penetrate and rush the passer.
Of all the defensive tackles in this draft, Malcom Brown from Texas might be the best when it comes to splitting double-teams and getting after the quarterback. He has a great burst, and the film shows exceptional hand usage. Brown isn’t going to wow anyone with his power in stopping the run, but as a specialist he is very good.
24. Arizona Cardinals
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The Pick: Eric Kendricks, LB UCLA
There are really two spots that stand out to me on the Arizona roster. It is clear the front office is building a powerful offensive line and wants to run the football. However, on defense, the line and linebackers are in a state of flux. Defensive end or inside linebacker here makes a ton of sense.
This time around, Arizona goes for inside linebacker with Washington star Eric Kendricks. He is a bit undersized at 6'0", 232 pounds, but in a 3-4 where he will have massive defensive linemen in front of him, he could be exceptional. He plays with suddenness and can close in a hurry. Kendricks does a great job of diagnosing plays quickly and can impact the game in run support as well as rushing the passer.
25. Carolina Panthers
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The Pick: Shaq Thompson, LB Washington
Thompson slips a little because he is undersized at 6'0", 228 pounds and isn’t going to fit every scheme. Yes, he is explosive and intelligent. However, he also struggles to get clean of blockers and can get caught up in the wash.
For the Carolina Panthers, Thompson would be a nice fit was the "Will" linebacker next to All-Pro Luke Kuechly. The Panthers defensive line is massive and gives the linebackers clean runs to the football. This is exactly what Thompson needs in order to maximize his athletic potential.
26. Baltimore Ravens
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The Pick: Maxx Williams, TE Minnesota
So far this offseason, the subtractions have definitely outnumbered the additions for the Baltimore Ravens. Multiple starters have left for other teams, and as of yet those spots haven’t been filled. However, from a scheme-specific standpoint, one area really stands out.
The Ravens love to utilize their tight ends in the passing offense, often using multiple tight ends on the field at a time. Baltimore let Owen Daniels leave and can't trust the health of Dennis Pitta. So the Ravens use a pick here to bring in the uber-athletic and productive Maxx Williams from Minnesota to pair with Crockett Gillmore as the future tight end tandem in Baltimore.
27. Dallas Cowboys
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The Pick: Eddie Goldman, DT Florida State
With the Dallas Cowboys offense finally in good hands, it is time to switch to the other side of the football with the first-round pick. Just like the Cowboys rebuilt their offensive line by strengthening the middle, that’s exactly what they need to do now on the defensive side of the football.
If the Cowboys want to get stout up front, they could do worse than adding Florida State defensive tackle Eddie Goldman. He is a fit and athletic man at 336 pounds who casts an imposing shadow. Goldman plays with excellent leg drive and a strong base.
His ability to command attention in the middle of the defensive line should make life easier for defensive end Demarcus Lawrence. Goldman also keeps his head up and does a nice job of breaking down the play, which makes him more than just a massive interior guy who takes up space.
28. Denver Broncos
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The Pick: Benardrick McKinney, LB Mississippi State
So far, the biggest losses for the Denver Broncos in free agency have been tight end Julius Thomas and defensive tackle Terrance Knighton. Fortunately, it appears as if they had a plan in place that covers both of those losses to some degree. This should let Denver look elsewhere to add talent.
One spot where the Broncos can make an instant upgrade is middle linebacker. Steven Johnson is a nice player, but if Denver could add Mississippi State linebacker Benardrick McKinney, it would improve the entire linebacking unit.
McKinney is a freakish athlete with elite size (6'4", 246 lbs). He also has experience at multiple spots and in various roles. McKinney slips because his production has never matched what his athleticism would indicate.
29. Indianapolis Colts
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The Pick: Marcus Peters, CB Washington
No team in the NFL is making bigger moves this offseason than the Indianapolis Colts. Adding guys like wide receiver Andre Johnson and running back Frank Gore tells me that Indianapolis wants to make a serious run at the Super Bowl in the upcoming season.
Things are also coming together on defense for Indianapolis, but there is still room for improvement. One area in particular is cornerback, as the Colts would be wise to add talent opposite Vontae Davis. In terms of pure cornerback skill, Washington's Marcus Peters is the top of this class.
He is a physical press-man cornerback with an exceptional all-around game. Even if he started as the nickel cornerback as a rookie, he would make this defense better.
30. Green Bay Packers
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The Pick: Jalen Collins, CB LSU
At this point, the biggest need the Green Bay Packers have is to get cornerback Tramon Williams back into the fold. However, it seems unlikely that Williams will be returning. If the Packers retain him, then this pick would go in a different direction.
In this case, LSU cornerback Jalen Collins makes perfect sense. He has exceptional size (6'1", 203 lbs) and plays with unmatched confidence. He still needs to hone some of the technical aspects of his game, but his ceiling is tremendous and well worth the risk.
31. New Orleans (From Seattle Seahawks)
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The Pick: Eli Harold, DE/LB Virginia
As the New Orleans Saints go back on the clock, their attention turns this time to the defense. With a small run at cornerback at the end of this round, New Orleans has to go a different direction and instead focus on improving the pass rush. The outside linebackers in this class are good, but if you need one, there is no reason to wait because the talent drops off after this first group.
So the Saints are wise to snatch up Virginia defensive end/linebacker Eli Harold at the end of the round. He has nice size at 6'3", 247 pounds and a great first step. He also has violent hands and does a good job of flashing across the face of offensive linemen on his way to the quarterback.
32. New England Patriots
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The Pick: Kevin Johnson, CB Wake Forest
One team that really took a hit this offseason is the New England Patriots. In particular, the secondary took a big blow with the losses of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. The Patriots have an elite safety tandem with Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung but need help on the outside.
Wake Forest cornerback Kevin Johnson is a fast-rising prospect who is heading into the draft with a ton of momentum. It was huge for him to check in at the combine at 188 pounds, when there were concerns he was at least 10 pounds lighter.
Johnson is polished in coverage and plays an aggressive style. This can get him in trouble at times, but overall he is as NFL-ready as any cornerback in this class and a great fit for the Patriots.
Any player data is provided courtesy of the NFL.com draft profiles.
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