NCAA Bracket Predictions 2015: Sleeper Teams Destined for Deep Runs
Getting a good upset right in the opening round is good for bragging rights, but the way to really get a leg up in your bracket pool is to accurately pick a sleeper to go deeper than anticipated.
In my book, a sleeper is a team with potential to advance further than its seed would indicate and get to the second weekend of the tournament.
The following eight teams all have that ability. Some I've picked in my bracket. Others I just couldn't pull the trigger. But they all have a conceivable chance to get to the Sweet 16—and a few could go even further—based off being underseeded or receiving a favorable draw.
Eastern Washington (South Region, No. 13 Seed)
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A reasonable case could be made for Eastern Washington to get to the Sweet 16. Georgetown has lost to a double-digit seed in four consecutive tournament appearances, and Utah, a potential round-of-32 opponent, has had recent struggles against Oregon, a team with a similar makeup to the Eagles.
The Ducks beat Utah twice in the last month. Like Eastern Washington, Oregon plays small ball and spreads the floor with shooters.
Eastern Washington also has a star to ride in Tyler Harvey, the nation's leading scorer, who is not just in that spot because he's a chucker. Harvey makes 42.8 percent of his threes and 53.5 percent of his twos.
The Eagles should also have faith that they can compete with the big boys. They went to Indiana and won, and they also kept it close against Washington when that team still had Robert Upshaw and looked to be top-25 caliber.
Stephen F. Austin (South Region, No. 12 Seed)
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The Lumberjacks are the best No. 12 seed. I don't love their draw, as Utah over the course of the season has played more like a No. 2 or 3 seed. But the Utes do enter the tournament in a bit of a funk, losers of four of their last seven.
Stephen F. Austin won a tourney game last season, upsetting VCU, and has a couple of impressive nonconference road wins over the last two years—knocking off Oklahoma last season and Memphis this year.
If the Lumberjacks get by the Utes, their second-round game would be an easier match. Georgetown is overseeded as a No. 4, and if Eastern Washington knocks off G'town, SFA is the superior mid-major program and team. The Lumberjacks are 61-7 in two years under head coach Brad Underwood.
Underwood made his reputation as an X's and O's guy when he was an assistant at Kansas State, convincing Frank Martin to adopt the pinch-post offense. He has some tricks up his sleeve, and SFA has been a consistent scoring team all season, ranking 19th nationally in efficiency, per KenPom.com.
Seeing this team in the Sweet 16 would surprise many, but to those who really follow the game, SFA would actually be the least surprising of any of the small mid-majors to get there.
North Carolina State (East Region, No. 8 Seed)
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Three years ago, Mark Gottfried had a talented North Carolina State roster that underachieved in the regular season and ended up in the Sweet 16 as a No. 11 seed. That team lost by only three points to eventual national runner-up Kansas.
This year, Gottfried again has a talented roster that underachieved. The Wolfpack's three guards stack up with just about anyone in the country. Sophomore point guard Cat Barber was a McDonald's All-American and is a blur with the basketball. Ralston Turner is a knockdown shooter. Trevor Lacey made the second-team All-ACC team this year, and he's also a knockdown three-point shooter and can create for himself off the bounce.
The Wolfpack have proved they can beat top-seeded teams with wins over Duke, North Carolina and Louisville, the latter two coming on the road. This is a team that top-seeded Villanova should want to avoid.
The East Region is the most wide open and most likely to produce a surprise Final Four team. I've got the Wolfpack's run ending in the Elite Eight, but if they get that far, they'll have a real shot to get to Indy.
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Wichita State (Midwest Region, No. 7 Seed)
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The Shockers lost in the Missouri Valley tournament, and that probably cooled some on their ability to make a run. It had to have cooled the committee's belief in them, as a No. 7 seed seems extremely low. But by virtue of seed, this is certainly a great sleeper pick to go far in the tournament.
The loss in the MVC tourney should not be all that alarming. It's a solid mid-major league, which the Shockers won in the regular season outright. And the last time they lost in the conference tournament, they ended up in the Final Four.
Three of the key pieces from that Final Four team are still around in Ron Baker, Tekele Cotton and Fred VanVleet. There isn't a backcourt in the country that is better equipped to handle the pressure of March and has proved itself on a big stage.
Kansas, the No. 2 seed in the Midwest, has been inconsistent this season, especially away from home. Should the in-state rivals meet in the round of 32, Wichita State has the better backcourt and the better experience.
The one weakness the Shockers have is they don't have as much size inside as they had a year ago. But that might not be much of a factor against Indiana, Kansas or potential Sweet 16 opponent Notre Dame. The Jayhawks don't hammer the ball in the post like traditional Bill Self teams, and the Irish and Hoosiers play small ball similar to the Shockers.
The lack of size could be troublesome against Kentucky. So a berth in the Elite Eight is probably the ceiling for this team. I have it losing to the Irish in the Sweet 16, but both that game and the KU game would be coin flips in my opinion. And it's hard to bet against VanVleet and Baker when that's the case.
Texas (Midwest Region, No. 11 Seed)
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By KenPom.com's ratings, Texas is the 20th-best team in the country and would be a No. 5 seed by that metric. The committee gave the Horns a No. 11 seed.
A good sleeper pick is one that is far more talented than its seeding, and UT fits the bill there. Remember, the Horns were a top-10 team at one point this season and went toe-to-toe with Kentucky without star point guard Isaiah Taylor.
Texas is an excellent defensive team with more shot-blockers than coach Rick Barnes knows what to do with. The Horns struggled this year because of their offensive, as they don't have enough perimeter playmakers or shotmakers.
But two things happened at the Big 12 tournament that could have this team trending upward. The first was that Taylor played great, realizing that he needs to constantly be in attack mode. He's a great driver and impossible to stay in front of. The other positive was a good shooting game from Jonathan Holmes, who scored 15 points in the two-point loss to Iowa State.
When Taylor and Holmes are scoring, this team can play with anyone. No team in the bottom of the Midwest Region can match up with UT's size. I'm high on Notre Dame, so I have Texas losing in the round of 32. But the bottom of that region is wide open, and the Longhorns have the goods to get to the Elite Eight to set up a rematch with Kentucky.
Buffalo (Midwest Region, No. 12 Seed)
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The Bulls should be a trendy pick in the opening round because of the recent injuries for West Virginia. WVU leading scorer Juwan Staten has missed four games, and even though he's expected to return this week, we don't know if he'll be his usual self.
Buffalo also likes to play fast and may just embrace the frenetic style that WVU chooses to play.
In the round of 32, Buffalo could get Maryland, a team that has many skeptics this year and a group without NCAA tourney experience.
The Bulls don't have any tourney experience either, but coach Bobby Hurley has been there before as Duke's point guard and is considered an up-and-coming coach in the profession.
The MAC is also one of the best mid-major leagues and one that has had plenty of March success. Three years ago, Ohio made a Sweet 16 appearance after having a season similar to the one Buffalo has had.
Brigham Young (West Region, No. 11 Seed)
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There are a few teams better on the offensive end than BYU, but I'm not sure there's an offense more difficult to guard or prepare for in the country.
The Cougars run endless dribble handoffs with ball screens that happen quickly, and every guy who touches the rock looks to attack. They have great shooters—38.8 percent from deep as a team—and multiple guards who can get into the paint off the dribble.
Tyler Haws is one of the craftiest scorers in America with an excellent mid-range jumper, and Kyle Collinsworth is slippery with the ball in his hands and has great vision.
Unique teams like this are great in a tournament setting because of the limited time to prep. The Cougars have to win the play-in game to even get in the field of 64, but we've seen the play-in winners go on runs before, most recently Tennessee to the Sweet 16 last year. I've also got the Cougars making it to the Sweet 16.
Michigan State (East Region, No. 7 Seed)
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Tom Izzo is due for one of his surprising Final Four runs that no one saw coming, and this team has the intangibles and talent of a sleeper capable of getting to the second weekend and beyond.
Michigan State looked great in the Big Ten tournament and was a couple of mistakes away from knocking off Wisconsin.
Wisconsin is similar to the Spartans' potential second-round opponent Virginia in terms of style, and Michigan State has the weapons to succeed against the pack-line defense. Izzo was able to get Denzel Valentine isolated in space against the Badgers, and he created shots for himself and others, scoring 16 points and dishing out six assists.
Sparty has several three-point shooters—most notably senior Travis Trice—plus a great athlete and rebounder in Branden Dawson and a back-to-the-basket threat in Matt Costello, who has played well in March.
This team lacks the depth and ability of last year's squad that got to the Elite Eight, but the East Region is wide open. Get past Virginia, which wasn't playing its best at the end of the regular season, and the Spartans have enough to get to the Final Four.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.
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