March Madness 2015: Safe Picks, Predictions for Riskiest Teams in NCAA Bracket
Is there ever truly a “safe” pick when it comes to the NCAA tournament?
Well, sort of.
Never has a 16-seed taken out a No. 1—the underdogs are 0-112 all time in those games—but there have been some close calls, as detailed by Matt Ryan for CBS Atlanta.
TOP NEWS
NCAA Tournament Expansion Official 🚨
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
UConn's STACKED Schedule ☠️
Report: Biggest Spenders in Men's CBB 🤑
It seems like we’re slowly crawling toward that day when some no-name team will dethrone one of the nation’s elite.
That day, in all likelihood, won’t come this year, however. The top seeds in each region are all relatively safe Final Four picks, but where’s the fun in that?
Take risks, people. Smart risks, that is.
There are some teams you shouldn’t bet on, and others you shouldn’t bet against. Let’s begin with the latter.
Key Tournament Information
Dates: March 17–April 6
Channels: CBS, TBS, TNT and truTV
Live Stream: March Madness Live
All Your Bracket Essentials
Safest Picks
Kentucky
Let’s be 100 percent real—no team is going to make Kentucky sweat until the Final Four.
The Wildcats, despite their greenness, are just so darn good. From Karl-Anthony Towns to Willie Cauley-Stein to Andrew and Aaron Harrison, these guys are a bunch of future NBA players.
But what makes Kentucky such a lock for a Final Four bid, and a strong national championship contender, is that John Calipari is playing, essentially, two teams.
Coach Cal swaps five-man units in and out, which means that if the Blue squad has an off night, Calipari will rely on the White squad to carry the load, and vice versa.
A recent caller on Mike Francesa’s WFAN radio show pointed out that the strongest competition the Cats have faced this year might have very well come in practice—against one another.
The vast majority of Kentucky’s players are NBA-bound, or will be in a few years. But before that, they’re all but locked into a deep run in this year’s tourney.
Duke
The Blue Devils are almost always elite, but they’re not always a reliable bet when it comes to March Madness.
This year, don’t think twice about penning Duke into at least the Elite Eight.
Jahlil Okafor, before becoming a top-three pick in the NBA draft, will lead the Dukies along with fellow freshman Tyus Jones.
One of Duke’s greatest strengths this year has been the team's ability to kill opponents in so many different ways: With Okafor going to work on the block, with Jones performing surgery on opposing defenses or with Quinn Cook and Justise Winslow slashing and shooting from the wings.
Or, worst of all for opponents, with all of those things going on at once.
Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s team has lost only four games this season, all of which came against in-conference foes. The ACC is no joke, so losing to Notre Dame (twice), NC State and Miami doesn’t set off any alarms.
If for no other reason, pick Duke to go far because Jones is one cold dude with the game on the line.
Just ask those guys from North Carolina. With a sigh and a tear, they’ll tell you all about the straggly-haired freshman who went into full Kobe Bryant killer mode on Feb. 18.
Wisconsin
Like Duke, Wisconsin is loaded with all kinds of artillery.
Senior Frank Kaminsky, one of the best and most versatile players in the country, can single-handledly take over games from both inside and out. Junior Sam Dekker, an athletic, sweet-shooting swingman, can explode, too.
The Badgers are too good, too experienced and too well-coached to not get neck-deep in the wild waters of March.
Evan Flood of 247Sports passed on a telling quote from a rival coach:
If for some reason you need an extra reason to believe in Wisconsin, who went 31-3 and won the Big Ten conference, was this video of Kaminsky getting weird with the trophy.
Riskiest Picks
Kansas
Kansas got dealt a rough hand on Selection Sunday. B/R College Basketball National Columnist Kerry Miller agreed:
"Kansas won the Big 12 regular-season championship for an 11th consecutive year. It's always a difficult conference, but it was easily the best conference in the country this season.
The Jayhawks made it to the conference championship game and even held a 14-point halftime lead before falling to Iowa State. Their strength of schedule ranks No. 1 in the country. Their RPI ranks No. 3.
For all that work, they were given the most difficult path for a No. 2 seed.
"
Despite earning a No. 2 seed in the Midwest region, the Jayhawks will potentially have to go through Wichita State/Indiana and Notre Dame/Butler.
And that won’t be a cakewalk. Well, if you put a bunch of jagged glass shards and rusty nails on top of a cake and walk across barefoot, I suppose it could be a "cakewalk."
Bill Self’s team has premier talent, but opponents have found success in upsetting Kansas this season.
If the Jayhawks do emerge out of such a stacked bottom half of the region, they’ll take a beating from Kentucky in the Elite Eight.
Gonzaga
The Zags are certainly elite, but in the round of 32, they could face a potential upset at the hands of Davidson.
After that, the Bulldogs will be subject to more worthy opponents, with SMU, UCLA and a sharpshooting Iowa State team all potentially ready to meet them.
Gonzaga’s road to the Elite Eight might actually be even more difficult than Kansas’.
ABC/Fox sports anchor James Rider has Davidson pulling the upset over Gonzaga:
Without playing a lot of close games this season, it will be interesting to see how the Zags respond if a team like SMU or Iowa State pushes them to the brink of elimination.
Virginia
A year after falling to Michigan State in the Sweet 16, Virginia might get a chance for revenge in 2015.
The No. 2-seeded Cavaliers could potentially get a rematch with the Spartans in the round of 32 after getting upset by the Green and White a season ago.
However, despite a strong thirst for vengeance, Virginia could have a hard time slowing down the three-point-launching Travis Trice and the well-balanced Denzel Valentine on the perimeter.
Sports Illustrated's Pete Thamel doesn't think UVA is made for a deep run:
Plus, if you throw everything else out the window, do you really want to pick against a Tom Izzo team?
All stats are courtesy of Sports-Reference.com.
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
