NCAA Upset Predictions 2015: Cinderella Picks for March Madness Bracket

Forget teams like Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke and Kansas. The NCAA tournament is built for Cinderella, and there's no argument against that. The Final Four is usually a predictable set of teams from major conferences, but everything that comes before keeps us watching. 

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Based on how strong Kentucky looks this season, one could try to say the other 67 teams are all playing the role of Cinderella. That's not right or fair, because there are a lot of great teams, like the ones already mentioned, but the Wildcats have been put in a class all by themselves. 

Don't worry because there will be no cheating with the Cinderella picks. This year's bracket is among the more difficult to pick out a surprise team because the selection committee did a strong job of spreading out the talent. 

Outside of Kentucky, the gap between the best teams in the tournament and sleepers is smaller than ever. Here are the underrated teams to keep a close eye on when filling out your bracket. 

Providence Friars (No. 6 Seed in East Region, 22-11)

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Of all the possible sleepers in this tournament, Providence would get my vote as the one to watch. Even though the 22-11 record isn't going to curry any favor, the Friars have been underrated because there's nothing sexy about a .667 winning percentage. 

Look deeper at the numbers, via ESPN.com, you'd be surprised to see that Providence ranks 23rd in RPI with the fifth-hardest strength of schedule. It has quality wins over Notre Dame and Georgetown (twice) and suffered a two-point loss to Villanova in the Big East semifinal. 

Ed Cooley's team is battle-tested and ready to take its game to the next level. The Friars also have one of those guys capable of carrying a team on his back, a la Shabazz Napier last year, with Kris Dunn. The sophomore guard averaged 15.8 points, 7.6 assists and 5.6 rebounds per game in the regular season. 

Also, if you are so inclined to label professional potential as a harbinger of NCAA tournament success, ESPN's Chad Ford singled out Dunn among players in the East Region:

There's a lot more to Dunn's game than just those offensive stats listed above, as evidenced by his lofty NBA draft status. For evidence of that, take a look at his do-it-all approach to the game in this Vine from Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman:

Teams that win in March have that one superstar player who is capable of making a shot in any situation or can make a stop on defense to halt a run. 

It also helps Providence's case that Dunn isn't doing it alone. LaDontae Henton is a tremendous forward who can score and will go after rebounds. He provides the necessary second option a team needs to avoid allowing opponents to hone in on a single player. 

There is a steep drop from Dunn and Henton to everyone else on the roster, as Tyler Harris is the only other player who averages more than seven points per game, but two foundational pieces in a situation where it's been proved a single star can carry you a long way gives this team a great chance to go far. 

It also helps that the bottom portion of the East Region isn't intimidating. Virginia needs Justin Anderson to get his legs back following that March 5 appendectomy to get a proven shooter who can support what Tony Bennett's defense is capable of doing. 

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Anderson was as much of a non-factor in the ACC tournament as a player who suits up can be, scoring zero points in 26 minutes, which makes it less surprising that Virginia lost to North Carolina in the semifinals. 

Michigan State was a nice story in the Big Ten tournament, but its biggest flaw came back in overtime against Wisconsin when no one could put the ball in the basket. The Spartans have been so erratic on both sides of the ball that they could make a run to the Elite 8 or lose to Georgia in the second round. 

Speaking of the Bulldogs, they are another team that struggles to score consistently and haven't been able to stay healthy long enough to show what their ceiling is. Oklahoma also falls into that category of inconsistent shooting teams and no one to distribute the ball. 

Add all of these things together, and Providence looks like a team that should at least be playing by the second weekend with a really good chance to make the Elite 8. 

Wichita State Shockers (No. 7 Seed in Midwest Region, 28-4)

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Two years ago, Wichita State shocked (no pun intended) the world by reaching the Final Four as a No. 9 seed. Last year, the Shockers put together a perfect regular season and conference tournament to get a No. 1 seed with a 34-0 record before getting a bad draw and losing to Kentucky in the round of 32. 

Now, with the expectations lowered by having the nerve to lose four games, Gregg Marshall's team can wear the Cinderella slipper again. The only bad part is that they are in the same region as Kentucky, so their ceiling is an Elite Eight club. 

The Shockers are starting the Big Dance on a sour note, having lost to Illinois State in the semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, but in a season of 32 games, that really is the lone blemish for them this season. According to ESPN.com, two of the four losses came against teams in the RPI Top 20 (Northern Iowa, Utah), and all of them came in road/netural-site games. 

Plus, as noted by Jeffrey Tomik of The Washington Post, who also likes Wichita State as a sleeper, the bones of the Final Four team two years ago are still around:

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The Shockers have plenty of tournament experience, with Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet both playing a big part in that Final Four run in 2013. Before falling to Illinois State in the Missouri Valley semifinals, Wichita State was ranked No. 8 in the AP poll so this is a little harsh of a seeding.

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There is also this tweet from ESPN's John Gasaway that should inspire confidence in anyone rooting for Wichita State:

A potential third-round matchup against Kansas is scary, though it's nothing the Shockers haven't gone up against before. Bill Self's team isn't a slouch, by any means, but it has had some bad games, like a 25-point loss to Temple and a 70-63 defeat at the hands of Kansas State. 

Even the Jayhawks' loss to Oklahoma State, a tournament team, looks worse in retrospect because the Cowboys limped to the finish with six losses in their last seven games. 

After that, Wichita State could be looking at a Sweet 16 game against Notre Dame that will be a worse matchup because of how well the Fighting Irish shoot the ball. That seems like a reasonable endpoint for Marshall's team, but it's still an impressive run given the teams in the Midwest bracket. 

Don't sleep on a tournament-tested team that's been disrespected by the selection committee because of one bad game and is fighting to prove it deserved its spot as a Top 10 team in both major polls.

Davidson Wildcats (No. 7 Seed in South Region, 24-7)

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It's been a good year for Davidson basketball. Stephen Curry is making his alma mater proud in the NBA as one of the leading candidates for MVP on the league's best team. The Wildcats are back in the NCAA tournament after a one-year sabbatical. 

Even though style points don't count for anything in sports, Davidson is one of those teams you want to see make a tournament run because it's a fun group to watch. 

Pete Thamel of Sports Illustrated wrote about how head coach Bob McKillop is so unique in a sport where so many coaches have to micromanage everything:

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Nothing epitomized Davidson’s free flow more than the defining coaching decision of Friday afternoon, when the Wildcats snared a defensive rebound with 15 seconds left and McKillop declined to call time out. Instead, he believed in his players enough to run through an offensive set without his meddling. They ran a crisp action, Kalinowski got a clean look and won the game without the over-coaching so rampant in college basketball. “Trust,” he said in a quiet moment after the game. “It’s about trust, and I trust them.”

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If you have watched a conference tournament game over the last two weeks, you've seen how much of a drag it can be. The game is constantly slowed down because of timeouts that it's refreshing to see a coach who has an implicit trust in his players. 

The numbers support the Wildcats' philosophy, as they rank third in assists, sixth in scoring and 31st in shooting percentage this season, according to ESPN.com. It's not a big roster in terms of size, as their tallest player Ali Mackay (6'11") is a stick at 215 pounds, so they have to shoot to compete with teams in the NCAA tournament. 

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Davidson's first-round opponent, Iowa, is one of those teams that slows the game down in such a boring way. The Hawkeyes don't shoot well, ranking 216th in shooting percentage, per ESPN.com, and got in the tournament largely on the basis of a good win over North Carolina and a victory over mediocre tournament team Ohio State.

Gonzaga is a dangerous No. 2 seed because of its ability to shoot the ball, Kyle Wiltjer being a scoring machine and having good size that can give the Wildcats problems. 

Of the sleepers listed, Davidson is the only one I'm not confident in reaching the second weekend because of the draw. Yet teams that can score are dangerous in a sport where offense has taken a back seat to slow pacing and the constant barrage of timeouts that takes teams out of rhythm. 

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