March Madness 2015: Odds, Betting Advice, Predictions Following Bracket Reveal
Now that the NCAA tournament field of 68 is set, all eyes immediately turn to figuring out how to fill out brackets. The allure of an undefeated Kentucky team could be too overwhelming to go against, but Wisconsin is lurking for a potential 2014 Final Four rematch.
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There are also the teams on the other side of the bracket, led by No. 1 seeds Villanova and Duke, that don't have to worry about Kentucky until the championship game if chalk holds.
We're nearly 100 words in without the mention of upsets, which are also going to destroy brackets. The good news is the selection committee didn't leave much to be perturbed about, so no one has to "justify" their appearance with a win.
As good as the top-four seeds in all the regions look, recent history says there's going to be a spoiler somewhere. The last two years have featured at least one team seeded seventh or worse in the Final Four.
Parity is all the rage in college basketball, so let's look at what the trends for this year's tournament look like.
| Team | Odds |
| Kentucky | 1-1 |
| Wisconsin | 6-1 |
| Duke | 10-1 |
| Arizona | 12-1 |
| Virginia | 12-1 |
| Villanova | 18-1 |
| Gonzaga | 22-1 |
| Kansas | 30-1 |
| Utah | 33-1 |
| Notre Dame | 35-1 |
Full odds can be found at Vegas Insider
Not that it's a surprise, but Kentucky is a heavy favorite. The only shocking part of the Wildcats' odds right now is that they aren't going to cost you anything, as you would get your money back if they won a title.
In terms of a return on investment with the No. 1 seeds, Villanova is the best bet. Even though the Wildcats play in a Big East conference that no longer has Syracuse and Louisville, it's still a strong collection of teams that have challenged them.
In fact, per CBS Sports, the Big East had the second-highest conference RPI ranking behind only the Big 12. Villanova also took care of its own business against the best competition it faced, going 13-1 against the RPI top 50.
Granted, the Wildcats didn't play a team ranked in the RPI top 10, but there's evidence that Jay Wright's team doesn't play down to its competition. That trait will serve them well heading into a must-win scenario every night.
Using an interactive chart from Sports Illustrated, which breaks down each's teams chances winning the title, Villanova has the third-best odds of the No. 1 seeds behind Kentucky and Duke.
Going back to Sports Illustrated, after Villnova's Big East tournament title win, David Gardner wrote why this team has a great chance to succeed:
"The Wildcats don’t have a player as talented as say, Duke’s Jahlil Okafor, but they’re also not as reliant on the success of one star. As a team, they boast the fourth-most efficient offense in the country and the No. 13 defense, according to kenpom.com.
That combination makes them the third-most balanced team in the country behind only Kentucky and Arizona. They are a top-25 team in three-point shooting and two-point shooting and top-50 in creating turnovers on defense and avoiding them on offense.
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Yes, having a superstar does make it easier to win a title. Just look at last year, when Connecticut turning to Shabazz Napier when it needed something to happen, but there are also plenty of teams out there capable of defending a single star.
The Wildcats are a coaching nightmare because so many players are capable of beating you on any given night. If one player isn't shooting well, it won't hurt the overall performance of the entire team because others can pick up the slack.
If you want to look down the bracket for a sleeper that can make a deep run without necessarily winning a title, Seth Davis of CBS Sports provided one of the most compelling teams to watch:
The Friars are the No. 6 seed in the East Region, the same bracket as Villanova, and are a good bet to make the second weekend.
Not to make this an all Big East discussion—there are great teams across the bracket capable of pulling off upsets—but Providence boasts ingredients that play well in March.
Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton are one of the best guard-forward duos in the country, averaging a total of 35.5 points, 12 rebounds, 8.5 assists and 4.2 steals per game. They both shot over 45 percent from the field and 34 percent from three-point range.
The bottom half of the east isn't scary. Virginia is the No. 2 seed and plays defense as well as anyone in the country, but the Cavaliers will have to score eventually. That's been a problem dating back to last season, and they are 225th in points per game this year, per ESPN.
No. 7 Michigan State will be a chic pick after making a run to the Big Ten title game and Tom Izzo's reputation for success in March, but like Virginia, the Spartans are so erratic on offense they can get tripped up easily.
Oklahoma is a solid team overall, yet it also struggles to consistently put the ball in the basket—it has a shooting percentage of 43.6, per ESPN. All Providence has to do is get past the Boise State-Dayton winner on March 18 to look good for a run to the Sweet 16.
Prediction
The only sad thing about the bracket is Kentucky and Wisconsin are on the same side, preventing us from being able to see the nation's two best teams playing for the national championship.
There's certainly a lot of work for the Wildcats and Badgers to do before getting to Indianapolis, but that would be the most compelling game for many reasons—one being Kentucky broke Wisconsin's heart in the Final Four last year.
On the list of teams that can give Kentucky a run for their money, most analysts agree that Wisconsin is No. 1, for reasons highlighted by Myron Medcalf of ESPN:
"Kentucky is even better this year, and it's deeper. But the Badgers have improved, too. They still present the same matchup problems with Wooden Award favorite Frank Kaminsky and with Sam Dekker so comfortable in space. Nigel Hayes is one of the most improved players in the country.
Per ESPN Stats & Info, the trio combined to shoot 19-for-24 (79.1 percent) from the field in Wisconsin's 92-78 victory over Indiana on Tuesday. Right now, the Badgers boast the most efficient offense in America (1.25 points per possession), according to Ken Pomeroy. They'd be tough to beat in a rematch with Kentucky.
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If these two teams meet in the Final Four and Kentucky gets through, there really isn't a team on the other side of the bracket that seems to present a challenge. Duke has the best individual player in Jahlil Okafor, but Mike Krzyzewski's team has fallen asleep on defense too often to be trusted.
Virginia's shortcomings have already been discussed, yet that defensive and slow-paced style could present a lot of problems against Kentucky. It's just a matter of whether you think the Cavaliers can score enough and how Justin Anderson responds after a disastrous ACC tournament (zero points in 26 minutes) to put them in the title game.
Kentucky versus Wisconsin in the Final Four will be the unofficial crowning of a national champion, with the Wildcats clawing their way to a win in that game before defeating Gonzaga in the real title game to complete a 40-0 season.
Check out B/R's Free Bracket Challenge for 2015 March Madness.
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