Goran Dragic Is Miami Heat's Ideal 2015 Free-Agent Target
A handful of elite players are slotted to be free agents in 2015, but the player the Miami Heat need most is the one they already have: Goran Dragic.
Dragic is all but certain to decline his $7.5 million player option, per HoopsHype, and become an unrestricted free agent following this season. And while a return to Miami would make a lot of sense, Dragic has never firmly committed to the Heat. He recently told Bleacher Report's Jared Zwerling:
"I just want to be focused on trying to help the team as much as possible get to the playoffs. But at the end of the season, of course I'm going to think about that option of staying. I'm really hoping to stay in Miami because I really like it, but you never know. I'm a free agent, so I'm going to explore my options.
"
Miami can't afford to lose Dragic. Not only is he one of the best point guards around, but he's also already had a transformational effect on the Heat offense.
Prior to Dragic's arrival, the Heat played a slow, creaky brand of basketball that revolved around grinding out possessions in the half court. The Heat averaged less than 92 possessions per game up until the trade deadline, easily the lowest mark in the league.
Miami's weak defense and lack of a killer half-court offense made such plodding basketball less than ideal. But it didn't have a point guard who could really push the pace. And that's where Dragic comes in. Take a look at the Heat's numbers before and after acquiring him (league rank is noted in parentheses):
| (Per NBA.com) | Pace | Fast-Break Points | Offensive Rating |
| Without Dragic | 91.85 (30) | 8.5 (29) | 101.5 (17) |
| With Dragic | 97.28 (10) | 14.4 (11) | 102.7 (14) |
That is a massive swing in pace and transition play, and it's virtually all because of Dragic. He looks to run every chance he can and is one of the league's best on the break.
Nearly 28 percent of his possessions with the Heat have come in transition, far more than any other Miami player. Miami is scoring 1.47 points per possession in those sets, putting Dragic in the NBA's 96th percentile on those play types.
He's so dangerous in transition, in part, because of his insane ability to finish at the rim. For his career, he's shooting 67 percent at the basket. He's all the way up to 70 percent this season. For reference, Chris Andersen is shooting 69 percent at the rim.
Dragic won't hesitate to push the ball against two or even three defenders, and he has some of the best ball fakes and hesitation moves in the league.
He's at his best in transition, but he's very good in the half court as well. He's a capable three-point shooter (36 percent for his career, though he's only hitting 31 percent in Miami). More importantly, he's a terrific lead ball-handler who can take a lot of pressure off Dwyane Wade's shoulders.
Wade is using 34.1 percent of the Heat's possessions this season. That's a ton of work for a guard with his kind of mileage and injury history—only two other guards have accomplished the same feat past age 32. That workload becomes even more troubling when you consider how much of his game revolves around getting to the basket.
Dragic's arrival hasn't yet tipped the scales much in that sense. But given more time and familiarity with the Heat's system, there's no question he would eat up more of Miami's possessions.
Even without much knowledge of what the Heat are doing, he's been an effective secondary ball-handler. He's shooting 62.1 percent on drives and creating 10.2 points per game off those drives, one of the best marks in the league.
And though the balance he and Wade have struck is far from perfect, it has been effective.
Miami is outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per 100 possessions when the two share the court. Just shy of 50 percent of those lineups' shots have come in the paint, and another quarter are coming from behind the three-point line, per NBAwowy.com.
Having both Dragic and Wade on the court ensures that there's always a quick fallback option if a given set or drive into the paint fails. Rather than having to completely reset the offense, the Heat can improvise with quick side pick-and-rolls for either player. They can even run quirky sets using Wade as the screener.
They're also able to use the gravity they have on defenders to carve out space for each other. Watch how Wade probes the defense just enough to set up an easy dribble-drive for Dragic:
One interesting thing to monitor moving forward, however, is how bad the Dragic-Wade-Hassan Whiteside trio has been so far.
The Heat are being outscored by 5.7 points per 100 possessions when the three are on the floor. That's likely just a fluke—those lineups are generating a good chunk of three-pointers but hitting less than 25 percent of them, per NBAwowy.com.
Dragic is a smart pick-and-roll passer, and there's no reason to think he couldn't play effectively with Whiteside. Still, it's worth keeping an eye on.
It's unfortunate that Dragic won't have the chance to play alongside Chris Bosh or Josh McRoberts this season, as there's no doubt he'd be terrific next to either of them.
He's gushed about playing with Channing Frye when both were with the Phoenix Suns and about how much spacing Frye provided on pick-and-rolls.
Bosh and McRoberts aren't quite the same caliber spot-up threats as Frye is, but they still have a lot of pull on defenses, and each is versatile enough to be a scary pairing with Dragic in pick-and-roll situations.
Dragic shines as a scorer when shooters like Frye screen for him, using the spacing they provide to get to the rim uncontested. But he's also a good pick-and-pop passer who makes teams pay if they hedge with their bigs on pick-and-rolls. He's an expert at stringing out those bigs until they're too far gone to retreat back to their man to contest a shot.
Bosh would be doubly effective in that pick-and-pop role, as he has the off-the-dribble savvy to make bigs pay even if they do have the speed to get back to him.
Dragic is only average defensively, but that's more than good enough considering how much he brings to the table offensively. Ideally, the Heat would find someone who could take some pressure off Wade on that end. But it's not a pressing issue, especially when Luol Deng is on the floor.
Dragic is big enough (he's 6'3") to play either guard spot and could realistically pair with any of the other Heat guards defensively. The Suns even threw him out at the 3 at times. That's not exactly a recipe for great defense, but it would give the Miami a lot of fun lineup combinations to work with.
All statistics accurate as of 3/14/2015 and courtesy of NBA.com/Stats or Basketball-Reference.com unless stated otherwise.
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