March Madness 2015 Predictions: Best Upset Picks for Every Region
The major upsets that occur so frequently in the first week of the NCAA tournament are one of the chief reasons for the event's appeal. Those surprises are an essential element of the so-called March Madness.
The pressure and emotion involved in the high-prestige, single-elimination tournament produce some head-scratching but intriguing results, especially when a little-known school knocks off a powerhouse.
In the past three years, seven teams seeded between No. 13 and No. 15 have eliminated teams seeded between No. 2 and No. 4.
No. 15-seeded Florida Gulf Coast ousted No. 2-seeded Georgetown in 2013, and two 15th-seeded teams won games in 2012, with Lehigh beating Duke and Norfolk State taking out Missouri.
It's no longer a question of whether a major upset will occur, but rather it's which favorites will fall. After taking a look at the matchups, we selected three games in each region that could produce the kind of surprising result that will be talked about for days, perhaps years.
For our purposes, a major upset is any result in which the predicted upset victim is seeded at least five slots higher than the projected winner. However, we made an effort to focus on possible upsets in which the disparity in the teams' seeds was greater than six spots.
South: (13) Eastern Washington over (4) Georgetown
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Eastern Washington is third in the nation in scoring and is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, hitting 40.3 percent of its shots from beyond the arc.
That kind of perimeter threat can be the great neutralizer against Georgetown, which is one of the worst teams in the nation at defending the three-pointer, allowing opponents to hit 35.9 percent of their long-range attempts.
Eastern Washington guard Tyler Harvey is the nation's leading scorer at 22.9 points a game, and he hits 42.8 percent of his three-point attempts. If he is hot from the perimeter, the Eagles have a shot.
Guard D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera was only 3-of-9 from the field in Georgetown's loss to Xavier in the Big East tournament, and if he struggles again, the Hoyas could be in trouble.
The Hoyas have had problems in recent NCAA tournaments, winning just one game in their last four appearances. In their most recent NCAA tournament showing in 2013, the second-seeded Hoyas lost their opening game to 15th-seeded Florida Gulf Coast.
Those failures may weigh on their minds.
South: (15) North Dakota State over (2) Gonzaga
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Gonzaga players and coaches think they have a genuine opportunity to get to the Final Four this year. If they are in a tight contest midway through the second half against a No. 15 seed, they may feel the pressure and implode.
The Bulldogs are in the NCAA tournament for the 17th consecutive season, so they are not new to the experience. But they have not fared particularly well in the postseason recently, failing to win more than one game in any of their past five appearances. That includes a loss in their second game in 2013 when Gonzaga was a No. 1 seed.
Those past failings may spring to mind if the Bulldogs are not comfortably ahead with 10 minutes left.
North Dakota State point guard Lawrence Alexander is just the kind of player who can make things difficult for Gonzaga. A senior who was named the Summit Conference player of the year, the 6'3" Alexander hit six of nine three-point shots in North Dakota State's victory over South Dakota State in the Summit title game. Alexander may cause problems for the Gonzaga defense if he is hot from long range.
If the Bison start slowly, missing their first several shots, they could get buried in a hurry because they are not nearly as talented as Gonzaga. The Bison must hope Gonzaga's big men do not swallow them up. If the Bison still have a chance in the second half, it could get dicey for the Bulldogs.
South: (12) Stephen F. Austin over (5) Utah
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Postseason experience could be critical here.
Utah deserves its No. 5 seeding, but none of the current Ute players have played in an NCAA tournament, which is unlike any other college basketball experience.
Stephen F. Austin, meanwhile, not only played in the NCAA tournament last year, but it also upset Virginia Commonwealth in the first round before losing to UCLA.
Most of last year's key Lumberjacks are on the current squad, including Jacob Parker and guard Thomas Walkup, who had a team-high 22 points (Parker) and a game-high 10 rebounds (Walkup) against VCU in last year's tournament. Walkup also was the Southland Conference Player of the Year this season.
The Lumberjacks are one of the top-scoring teams in the country and are 28-1 since their 1-3 start. Those early losses all came against NCAA tournament teams, and they took Northern Iowa to overtime before losing.
Utah played its best basketball earlier in the season, going just 3-4 over its last seven games. Utah won a lot of games by lopsided margins, but its ability to win close games is still in question. The Utes were just 2-4 in games decided by six points or fewer this season.
If the Lumberjacks can keep the game close, they have a good shot at an upset.
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East: (12) Wyoming over (5) Northern Iowa
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Wyoming is on a roll, and teams with that kind of momentum are dangerous in the postseason. The Cowboys needed to win the Mountain West tournament to get into the NCAA tournament, beating the regular-season conference co-champions Boise State and San Diego State in successive close games to get in.
Forward Larry Nance Jr. is a versatile player who can affect the game in a number of ways. Wyoming was less effective when he missed four games in February because of mononucleosis, but he is back at full strength, and the Cowboys are better because of it.
Northern Iowa has a talented big man itself in forward Seth Tuttle, the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year. But the 6'8" Nance and 6'9" Derek Cooke Jr. have enough athleticism to knock Tuttle off his game. That is critical since the Panthers run their offense through Tuttle.
The Panthers are outstanding defensively, but they don't score a lot of points, which usually means a tight game. No players on either team have played in an NCAA tournament game, but that favors Wyoming, which will not have the pressure of expectations.
East: (13) UC Irvine over (4) Louisville
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This possible upset is more about Louisville than UC Irvine.
The Anteaters are a capable team, especially now that 7'6" center Mamadou Ndiaye is back and healthy after missing 19 games with a foot injury. He will patrol the back of Irvine's zone defense, which is the perfect defense against a Louisville team that shoots only 30.4 percent from three-point range.
A bigger factor is that Louisville simply has not played particularly well lately. The midseason dismissal of guard Chris Jones, one of the Cardinals' top scorers and a critical part of their pressure defense, has hurt in a variety of ways. The Cardinals are just 5-5 in their last 10 games.
Irvine will have trouble running its offense against Louisville's full-court pressure. But if the Anteaters can limit their turnovers and Ndiaye can help prevent Louisville power forward Montrezl Harrell from having a big game, Irvine can keep it close.
And if it's close, the pressure will be on the Cardinals.
East: (11) Boise State/Dayton over (6) Providence
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It came as a surprise that Dayton and Boise State were relegated to the First Four, with both expected to receive first-round byes based on their resumes.
The winner of that game not only has the talent to knock off Providence but will also have any early jitters out of the way by having played a game.
Providence has two outstanding players in Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton, but Henton has been erratic lately, going 2-of-9 from the field in the Big East tournament loss to Villanova and going 2-of-10 in the loss to Butler in the final regular-season game. The Friars need both their stars to be productive to win.
Boise State played outstanding basketball down the stretch after it got healthy. The Broncos won 15 of 16 games, including two victories over San Diego State, before losing to Wyoming in overtime in the Mountain West tournament.
However, the Broncos have to play Dayton in Dayton in the first round. The Flyers finished second in the Atlantic 10 before losing to Virginia Commonwealth in the conference championship game.
This is a case where improper seeding provides an opportunity for what will appear to be an upset. Both Boise State and Dayton are as good as Providence.
Midwest: (12) Buffalo over (5) West Virginia
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If Buffalo can limit its turnovers, and that's a big if, the Bulls can beat West Virginia.
West Virginia has beaten a lot of good teams this season, but the Mountaineers have done it through toughness and outstanding pressure defense, not efficient offense. Quite frankly, the Mountaineers can't shoot. They have made just 41.2 percent of their shots from the floor and 31.8 percent from three-point range.
Plus, West Virginia's only star player, guard Juwan Staten, missed the final four games with a knee injury, three of which the team lost. Staten is expected to return for the postseason, but he could be rusty after the layoff and may not be at 100 percent.
Buffalo, meanwhile, has won eight in a row and is playing its best basketball of the season. You may recall that Buffalo led both Wisconsin and Kentucky at halftime of those two road games this season before losing.
Powerful 6'7" Justin Moss gives the Bulls an inside presence that can hold its own against West Virginia, and if anybody knows how to win in the postseason, it's Buffalo coach Bobby Hurley.
Midwest: (13) Valparaiso over (4) Maryland
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Both teams fared better than expected this season, but a few things give Valparaiso a shot at an upset.
The Crusaders are a good three-point shooting team, and they have a bit of a wild card in leading scorer Alec Peters, a 6'9" player who is an excellent outside shooter. Peters is hitting 46.2 percent of his three-point shots for the season, and before having an off game in the Horizon League final against Green Bay, Peters had made 10 of 17 shots from long range over his previous four games.
Maryland has beaten some good teams this season, but the Terps are much better defensively than offensively. Maryland freshman guard Melo Trimble has played well throughout the season, but you have to wonder how he will fare in his first NCAA tournament game.
The final factor involves the Valparaiso coach, Bryce Drew. He was the player who hit the game-winning three-pointer in Valparaiso's upset of Mississippi in the 1998 NCAA tournament. Valparaiso was seeded No. 13 that year; perhaps magic can strike again.
West: (12) Wofford over (5) Arkansas
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Arkansas is talented but erratic. If it has one of its bad days, Wofford is capable of taking advantage.
Wofford is better than people realize, and the Terriers are hot, having won eight in a row and 15 of their last 16. They obviously did not play the schedule Arkansas has, though the Terriers own a road win this season over North Carolina State.
However, an upset is possible because it's difficult to know what to expect from the Razorbacks. If Arkansas plays its best, it will beat Wofford comfortably. But losses to Tennessee, Florida and Clemson indicate Arkansas has flaws.
The Razorbacks depend heavily on their pressure defense to force turnovers and make things chaotic, but Wofford is pretty good at taking care of the ball, committing just 10.9 turnovers a game.
If Wofford can control the game's pace and prevent Arkansas forward Bobby Portis from going wild, the Terriers have a chance.
Midwest: (15) New Mexico State over (2) Kansas
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New Mexico State won the Western Athletic Conference regular-season and tournament titles and is on a 13-game winning streak.
The Aggies' collection of international stars (none of their top four scorers reside in the United States) could pose a problem for Kansas. Remi Barry and Ian Baker are excellent three-point shooters, and if they are hot, the Jayhawks may be in trouble.
Kansas may be without Cliff Alexander, and you wonder whether Perry Ellis' knee will hold up. Ellis scored just seven and 11 points in his two games since returning from that knee injury, hitting six of 21 shots in the process. He did not look like he was 100 percent.
The bigger issue is Kansas' habit of faltering early in the NCAA tournament. The Jayhawks seem to do fine once they get out of the first weekend, but those early games are a problem. Kansas lost its second NCAA tournament game last season to Stanford, and Northern Iowa took the Jayhawks out early in 2010. The worst was back-to-back opening-round losses in 2005 and 2006 (Bucknell and Bradley).
A lot of things would have to go right for the Aggies to pull off the upset, but if the game is still close in the second half, Kansas could tighten up, as it has in the past.
West: (13) Harvard over (4) North Carolina
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Harvard had a relatively disappointing season after being ranked in the preseason Associated Press Top 25. The Crimson had to beat Yale in a playoff just to earn the Ivy League's berth in the NCAA tournament.
Now that the Crimson are here, though, they could cause problems, just as they have the past two years. In 2013, Harvard was seeded No. 14 when it knocked off third-seeded New Mexico, and last season it was a No. 12 seed when it eliminated fifth-seeded Cincinnati. In both cases, point guard Siyani Chambers and forward Wesley Saunders were key factors in the upsets. Both are back this year to try again.
North Carolina has played well lately and has a powerful frontcourt that could overpower Harvard. But North Carolina has shortcomings in the backcourt. Marcus Paige is the Tar Heels' only reliable three-point threat, and he has not been as productive as he was last season.
The Tar Heels have had moments this season when they looked very average. Their 12-point home loss to North Carolina State was such a game.
Certainly, Harvard will not be overwhelmed by the situation, knowing full well it has the goods to take out a team like North Carolina. If the Crimson can figure out a way to avoid getting dominated by the Tar Heels' frontcourt, they have a chance.
West: (14) Georgia State over (3) Baylor
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Georgia State has a shot against Baylor if guard Ryan Harrow is healthy. The Panthers beat Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt title game without Harrow, who was sidelined with a hamstring injury. But Georgia State will need Harrow and his 18.7 points per game against Baylor.
Paired with R.J. Hunter, an excellent shooter who has an NBA future, Harrow gives the Panthers an impressive one-two punch. Hunter has not shot as well as expected this season, especially lately, but he is due to break out. He will need to be proficient against Baylor's defense, which is particularly adept against three-point shots.
Baylor has been better than expected, making up for a mediocre shooting percentage with outstanding offensive rebounding. If the Panthers can keep Baylor's rebounding monster, Rico Gathers, off the offensive boards, they will have a chance.
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