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Kentucky Wildcats' Blueprint to Win the 2015 NCAA Tournament

Matt KingMar 15, 2015

This was harder than you might think.

It's tempting to write "just roll the ball out there." Kentucky has been so good and so unbeatable that coming up with a blueprint for the Wildcats to win the championship is a lot like coming up with a blueprint for beating the team itself: There doesn't seem to be any particular thing you can pinpoint because it does everything so well.

But I'm nothing if not game. I've watched every single Kentucky game this season, and I've formed enough opinions about how the Wildcats should play—to the point that I tried to tell them which kinds of shots they should take every game.

Despite their dominance, even their confident coach is aware that winning six straight is not a foregone conclusion. 

Said John Calipari on ESPN's Bracketology special Sunday: 

"

It is a one-game shot and everyone’s record is the same. I’m going to focus on my team. I think I have the best team and I have the best players. Does that mean we’ll win? No, it doesn’t.

"

If the Wildcats want to make history, here's how they're going to do it.

Don't Overindulge on Three-Pointers

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Three-pointers are the candy of basketball. They're sweet, tempting and, if you have too many of them, you may wake up the next day disappointed and with an ache in the pit of your stomach.

Teams have figured out that, because of Kentucky's height, the best way to defend the Wildcats is to sit down in a zone and dare them to shoot threes. So far it has mostly backfired, but there have been games where the Wildcats couldn't hit from deep but kept shooting, sure the next one was going down.

So, yes, the three ball is a weapon. And the Wildcats have had games where they shot the lights out. But they're smack-dab in the middle of the country when it comes to three-point shooting. Even then, they shoot their best when the ball goes inside then out, whether that's off a pass from a big man or off a drive-and-kick opportunity.

As long as Kentucky runs its offense and doesn't fall in love with the three ball, it'll be fine.

Keep Karl-Anthony Towns out of Foul Trouble

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Karl-Anthony Towns had 90 fouls during the regular season. To put that into perspective, the next closest player on Kentucky, Willie Cauley-Stein, had 61.

To put that into even more perspective, that's one foul per 7.1 minutes. His per-36-minute average would be over five fouls a game.

Let me break this down in the simplest of terms: Karl-Anthony Towns fouls a lot. And that's not a good thing.

Over the last half of the SEC season, Towns broke out and started playing to his potential. He became Kentucky's go-to player when it needed a bucket. He rebounded. He blocked shots. He did a little bit of everything.

Kentucky needs him on the floor. The Wildcats can't afford to have their biggest weapon sidelined in a big game because he wouldn't stop fouling.

Stop Penetration on Defense

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So far, the overarching theory on how to beat Kentucky is that you need to make a bunch of threes. But the games in which the Wildcats have had the most trouble are the games when their guards allowed penetration into the lane.

When an anonymous coach was asked to pick out their weakness at CBSSports.com, he said: "Staying in front [of] the ball. Booker can't stay in front of anybody. I don't think the Harrisons are really good staying in front of the ball either."

Sure, it's nice having Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein there to clean up any messes, but when the big guys have to step up to help on defense, it leaves Kentucky vulnerable to the extra pass inside and takes a rebounder away during a shot. That's one of the reasons Kentucky is solidly in the middle of the road when it comes to defensive rebounding percentage.

The Wildcat guards don't need to be perfect. What's the point of having shot-blocking terrors roaming the lanes if you're not going to use them? But Kentucky can't completely rely on them to do all of the work. If the backcourt can limit penetration, it will make it all that much harder for teams to find open shots.

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Ride the Twins

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This is the first time at Kentucky that John Calipari has coached a point guard for more than one season.

For all of their bellyaching early in the season about starting Tyler Ulis, UK fans have quickly realized that Andrew Harrison is absolutely crucial to Kentucky's success. Considered a wily veteran by Wildcat standards, Harrison runs the team with an icy calm, has been getting better and better this year at beating his opponents off the dribble and is the second-best player on the team at creating his shot.

The best? That would be his brother, Aaron. Even though his three-point percentage was below 30 percent for the regular season, Aaron has improved his mid-range game by leaps and bounds. He's deadly with the one- or two-dribble pull-up.

Most important, though? These guys are killers. They have total confidence in themselves, and they've been in pressure situations before. That kind of experience is not exactly necessary for tournament success, but it's a big plus for the Wildcats.

And if Kentucky is down two with 10 seconds to go, I don't care if Aaron Harrison is 0-of-20 at that point—I'm giving him the ball. March is his time.

Stay Healthy

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The final key for Kentucky is not exactly something within its control, but it's crucial.

You could say that every team in the tournament needs to stay healthy. And you could also say that Kentucky is the deepest team in the country right now, so if anybody can sustain an injury, it would be them.

However, don't forget that the Wildcats already lost a starter who happened to be a rare junior and basically this team's heart and soul. Kentucky may have weathered Alex Poythress' injury on the court, but it has made this run so much harder not having him available.

The way this team works, it needs every person available. Everyone contributes and plays a big role on this team. If the Wildcats lose yet another cog to their machine, who knows what kind of effect it might have.

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