2015 NBA Draft Prospects Who Pass the Analytics Test
During March Madness, basketball junkies get to enjoy watching the athletic dominance of the country's top NBA draft prospects. Fans and media also gawk at their eye-popping point totals and box scores.
But what if we dig a littler deeper on these draft prizes? What do their advanced stats and metrics say about them?
Some players are more valuable than others from an analytics standpoint. To find out which potential lottery picks pass the stress test, we looked at a host of in-depth stats.
Factored into our assessment are metrics like player efficiency rating (PER), true shooting percentage, offensive and defensive ratings per 100 possessions and win shares per 40 minutes. For guards, we also focused on assist percentages, and for big men we accounted for stats such as rebounding percentages.
It's also important to note how prospects fared against stiffer competition. Strong performances against teams in the RPI top 50 gave some of these players better chances of passing the analytics test.
Robust advanced stats don't automatically mean a youngster will thrive in the NBA, but they help depict his true strengths and level of impact.
Which top prospects made the elusive cut?
For the sake of evaluating comparable players, this list does not include top international prospects. Only NCAA prospects were considered.
Jerian Grant, Notre Dame PG (6'5", Senior)
1 of 6
Advanced Stats: 26.9 PER, .601 TS%, 34.0 AST%, 127.5 ORtg, 102.2 DRtg, .235 WS/40
Traditional Stats: 36.5 MPG, 16.8 PPG, 6.7 APG, 1.8 SPG, .494 FG%, .331 3FG%
While other players may be hogging the "top prospect" headlines, Jerian Grant is delivering a truckload of offense for Notre Dame. In the process, he's proving he can operate at the helm of an NBA team.
He's not the most accurate three-point shooter, but he makes up for it by hitting mid-range jumpers and attacking the rim effectively. According to Hoop-math.com, the Irish floor general is shooting 77 percent on field-goal attempts at the rim. That's a remarkable stat for a guard.
His aggressiveness has resulted in some scoring nights, including four 20-plus point games against adversaries in the RPI top 50.
When he's not busy getting all the way to the cup, Grant serves as a top-shelf distributor. He's averaging 7.3 assists per 40 minutes compared to just 2.3 turnovers. That includes games with seven-plus assists against teams like Duke, Louisville and North Carolina.
It's hard to tell whether he'll become a dependable shooter or scorer in the NBA. However, the numbers strongly indicate that he'll routinely besiege the rim and create offense for his comrades.
D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State G (6'5", Freshman)
2 of 6
Advanced Stats: 27.7 PER, .584 TS%, 31.2 AST%, 118.3 ORtg, 92.9 DRtg, .250 WS/40
Traditional Stats: 33.4 MPG, 19.2 PPG, 5.2 APG, 1.6 SPG, .459 FG%, .422 3FG%
D'Angelo Russell's efficiency and impact statistics aren't as other worldly as some of the studs on this list. But he's still head and shoulders above most guards when it comes to economic shooting from the perimeter and playmaking production.
Russell is shooting 42 percent from three-point land, a superb mark for a freshman and a big reason his true shooting percentage is .584. Those numbers are also impressive when you account for his high volume of shots (14.3 field-goal attempts per game).
In addition to scoring 23.0 points per 40 minutes, he dishes 6.2 assists while posting a 31.2 assists percentage. He commits 3.4 turnovers in that same time frame, but that's digestible considering the sheer amount of offense he's responsible for.
Defensively, his traditional stats don't pop off the page, but he effectively hinders the production of opponents. Russell is second in the Big Ten in defensive win shares, which contributes to his robust .250 win shares per 40 minutes.
Bobby Portis, Arkansas PF (6'10", Sophomore)
3 of 6
Advanced Stats: 30.5 PER, .602 TS%, 13.5 ORB%, 20.1 DRB%, 124.9 ORtg, 97.3 DRtg, .237 WS/40
Traditional Stats: 29.5 MPG, 17.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.5 BPG, .563 FG%, .423 3FG%
I'm not the only one who will point you to the stat books in order to illustrate Bobby Portis' value.
Arkansas head coach Mike Anderson also understands the power forward's impact. When John Rothstein of CBS Sports asked Anderson why Portis' value falls under the radar at times, Anderson noted the different categories the youngster dominates:
"I think you need to look at the statistical categories in terms of what our basketball team is doing. People have seen how good he is. They might not want to say, but they know. This kid isn't just one of the best players in our league -- he's one of the best players in the country...This guy is one of the top scorers in our league and he's the top field-goal percentage guy in our league. He's one of the top shot blockers in our league and he's one of the top rebounders in our league...A big reason why we're doing what we're doing is because of Bobby Portis.
"
Portis' offensive production and efficiency was a huge reason the Razorbacks were the SEC's highest-scoring squad in the regular season. It was also a big factor in him earning SEC Player of the Year honors. His true shooting percentage was .602, which is sparkling considering he takes a bunch of shots from the outside.
He feasted against even the best competition. In games against foes in the RPI top 50, he shot 58 percent and averaged 23.6 points and 10 rebounds per 40 minutes.
It remains to be seen whether he has the athleticism to stand out against NBA power forwards. But his statistical production certainly matches up against anyone's.
Jahlil Okafor, Duke C (6'11", Freshman)
4 of 6
Advanced Stats: 30.7 PER, .645 TS%, 16.1 ORB%, 18.8 DRB%, 121.0 ORtg, 96.0 DRtg, .236 WS/40
Traditional Stats: 30.7 MPG, 17.6 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.4 BPG, .668 FG%, .524 FT%
Yes, Jahlil Okafor's defensive agility on the perimeter is suspect. And that's something that should not be ignored. But in every other major metric, Duke's anchor is executing phenomenally.
He's not just shooting efficiently in general. He's converting like a machine against top-tier competition. Against opponents in the RPI top 50, he's shooting 70 percent from the field and notching 20.1 points per 40 minutes.
Okafor has also been a monster on the offensive glass this season, notching a 16.1 percent offensive rebounding percentage. He's hauling in 11.3 total boards per 40 minutes against the RPI top 50, using his 270-plus pound frame and 7'5" wingspan to beat opponents to the ball.
Considering his so-so block totals (1.6 per 40 minutes against RPI top 50), he doesn't project to be a fearsome rim protector. However, he will do enough positionally with his size to hold his own near the bucket.
While Okafor's defensive impact isn't great, his overwhelming offensive numbers and rebounding rate enable him to pass our analytics test.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky PF (6'11", Freshman)
5 of 6
Advanced Stats: 30.6 PER, .616 TS%, 13.9 ORB%, 22.8 DRB%, 125.6 ORtg, 75.9 DRtg, .310 WS/40
Traditional Stats: 20.7 MPG, 9.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 2.4 BPG, .558 FG%, .790 FT%
Look at those stats and try to convince me Karl-Anthony Towns is a freshman.
His defensive rating (75.9) is tops among all Division I ballers, and his win shares per 40 minutes (.310) ranks second. The Kentucky prodigy knows how to disrupt opponents, using his agility and length to blanket the entire paint and beyond.
Offensively, his scoring numbers aren't incredible because he has to share the ball with several talented teammates. However, he still crushes the analytics test due to clean shooting and offensive rebounding. Towns' true shooting percentage of .616 indicates that he scores well from the field and also converts his free throws (79 percent).
He's not the strongest or bulkiest prospect in the field, but he's still one of the best rebounders. Towns uses his long arms and goes after the ball aggressively, notching a 13.9 offensive rebounding percentage and 22.8 defensive rebounding mark.
If you think he's just gobbling up boards against inferior SEC competition, then here's a nugget for you: Against teams in the RPI top 50, he's hauling in 13.3 rebounds per game.
Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin PF/C (7'0", Senior)
6 of 6
Advanced Stats: 35.5 PER, .635 TS%, 5.9 ORB%, 25.5 DRB%, 130.2 ORtg, 87.6 DRtg, .322 WS/40
Traditional Stats: 32.6 MPG, 18.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.6 BPG, .559 FG%, .410 3FG%
Frank Kaminsky isn't just another tall prospect who can hit the occasional outside shot. He's someone who shoots at an elite level, forcing defenses to guard him at the three-point line and beyond.
His true shooting percentage (.635, best in the Big Ten) reflects his penchant for fluidly scoring the ball from all over the floor. Wisconsin can use him as a post-up weapon, pick-and-pop threat and spot-up shooter.
"Kaminsky views a basketball court like few before him, reading angles like a protractor, marking player movement like a radar scope," said Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News. "He knows where he is. He knows where his teammates are. He knows where the opponents are."
This razor-sharp awareness has allowed him to fare well against the most talented Wisconsin opponents, and not just on offense. The Badger big man recorded 2.3 blocks per 40 minutes against RPI top-50 teams. His rim protection is part of the reason he owns an 87.6 defensive rating and the most win shares per 40 minutes of any Division I player (.322).
The NBA's athleticism will present a great challenge for him, but advanced stats suggest he'll hold his own on defense and shoot the lights out.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all stats come from Sports-Reference.com/CBB.
Follow Dan O'Brien on Twitter for more NBA draft coverage: @DanielO_BR
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
