March Madness Sleepers 2015: Predicting Which Teams Will Impact NCAA Tournament

Everybody loves a good sleeper. Sleepers are what make the first weekend of the NCAA tournament so exciting. They make Buffalo Wild Wings the beehives of social activity as brackets go boom or bust.

Before we see Kentucky reach the final against Duke or Virginia or Kansas, there are several sleeping giants that could create havoc in the first few rounds of the tournament.

For the purposes of this slideshow, the sleepers are seeded no higher than sixth according to Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller. Factoring in RPI, records against the RPI Top 25, records against the RPI Top 50 and whether any of these teams have that one key player who could heat up and carry them into the Sweet 16, these are squads curled up like cobras that could strike down an opponent at any time.

Read on for a list of sleepers you'd be foolish to ignore.

Statistics and records are current through March 12. 

Iowa Hawkeyes

Justin Hayworth/Associated Press

RPI: 43

Record vs. RPI Top 25: 2-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-6

Fran McCaffery's Hawkeyes have never been a dominant team, but they have been a nagging, incessant bug in the ear of everyone they play.

This goes back to Iowa's early-season win over North Carolina in Chapel Hill. Despite losing early in the Big Ten tournament, they've proven capable of toppling giants.

McCaffery said in the Quad-City Times:

"

A lot of people have to play well. You have to play with tremendous confidence. You've got to defend. You've got to make free throws. You've got to make shots late. There can be no panic ... You've got to be locked in and you've got to be together. I will say this. This team is as together as any team I've been around.

"

Then Iowa goes out and loses to Penn State in the Big Ten tournament. The Hawkeyes can look good but then fail to sustain it. After beating Ohio State for the second time, Iowa then lost five of its next seven games. 

On top of that win over then-No. 12 North Carolina, Iowa beat No. 20 Ohio State and No. 17 Maryland. Against the big dog in the room—Wisconsin—Iowa lost both times by a combined 43 points.

Still, with a player such as Aaron White, who's averaging 16.0 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, anything can happen, and this Iowa team could surprise people in the earliest rounds of the tournament. 

That is, if McCaffery can get his team focused and not lose leads like it did against Penn State.

San Diego State Aztecs

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

RPI: 26

Record vs. Top 25: 1-1

Record vs. Top 50: 4-5

San Diego State is easy to forget because its offense struggles. According to KenPom.com, the Aztecs rank 161st in offensive efficiency. Their saving grace is defense as they have one of the more tenacious defensive teams in the country.

This is a team that gave Arizona a scare back in November, losing by just two points. The Aztecs have come a long way since that near-win in the Maui Invitational.

The Aztecs allow the third-fewest points per game, 53.7, and with the aggressive play of JJ O'Brien and Dwayne Polee II—who account for a combined 3.0 steals per game—they'll make teams play ugly basketball.

Andrew Musur of ULoop.com wrote: "I expect San Diego State to make a deep run in this year's tournament, especially with their height advantage. All five of the Aztecs' starters stand over 6'3", and three starters are 6'7" and taller. San Diego's height advantage will make it difficult for teams to match up with them."

That length and a defense ranked fourth in efficiency make the Aztecs big-time sleepers.

North Carolina State Wolfpack

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

RPI: 41

Record vs. Top 25: 3-6

Record vs. Top 50: 4-8

Look at the Wolfpack. It's a team that beat No. 2 Duke, No. 9 Louisville and No. 15 North Carolina. It got beaten by No. 2 Virginia by only four points and by three to No. 8 Notre Dame in overtime.

How is it this team was only 10-8 in the ACC? Losses to Wake Forest, Clemson and Boston College signify this team gets up for big games and slacks against teams it needs to beat.

NC State has a penchant for showing up in March. Right now, its backcourt can rival just about any in the country. Anthony Barber and Trevor Lacey can and will run circles around the bucket. Barber averages 12.1 points and 3.8 assists per game. Lacey, not to be outdone, scores 15.8 points per game with 3.4 assists.

In its rematch with Duke in the ACC tournament, NC State scored just 11 points in the first 11 minutes of the half. Duke had the wolf by the tail for much of this game.

Discouraging for NC State? Yes, but its body of work suggests it can do some damage in the tournament and maybe win a game or two.

Davidson Wildcats

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

RPI: 24

Record vs. Top 25: 1-3

Record vs. Top 50: 2-3

Opposing defenses and gastroenterologists everywhere better watch out because they could get a Kalinoski-py.

Davidson’s most productive player, Tyler Kalinoski, was named the A-10 Player of the Year and leads one of the most surprising teams in Davidson into the tournament. He proved his prowess by hitting a clutch game-winning scoop against LaSalle in the A-10 tourney

Not since Steph Curry was firing up threes for the Wildcats has there been this much buzz around this team. Kalinoski scored 16.9 points per game to go along with 5.7 rebounds and 4.2 assists.

"I knew there was something special about him early in his freshman year when he got a tough offensive rebound," said Wildcats coach Bob McKillop in The Charlotte Observer. "There was a toughness, moxie, instinct and fight that I saw in Tyler. It was a defining moment. He's developed that year after year."

Davidson won the A-10 by winning its final nine games and 11 of its last 13, including a 77-60 win over No. 22 Dayton and an 82-55 romp in the park against VCU.

Davidson's offense is scary good. It ranks sixth in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Jay LaPrete/Associated Press

RPI: 38

Record vs. Top 25: 1-5

Record vs. Top 50: 1-7

When looking for a comparison to D'Angelo Russell, look no further than his surname: Russell Westbrook.

Russell has that kind of take-over-a-game capability; he is a freshman who only got better as the year went on. The Buckeyes didn't burn through the Big Ten, amassing a somewhat pedestrian 11-7 record.

Still, with numbers like 19.3 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game, he could "Carmelo Anthony" his team deep into the tournament or Shabazz Napier…or Kemba Walker…

"I wouldn't say Shabazz- or Kemba-type thing, but I would definitely do a D'Angelo Russell approach and do whatever I have to do to lead this team," he said on Cleveland.com. "If it's scoring, rebounding, whatever coach needs me to do, I'm willing. I just want to win." 

That 24-point loss to Wisconsin on March 8 could be the game that shakes Ohio State alive. With wins over ranked Indiana and Maryland, the Buckeyes have the singular star power to be a sleeper pick to run deep into the tournament.

Purdue Boilermakers

Doug McSchooler/Associated Press

RPI: 54

Record vs. Top 25: 0-4

Record vs. Top 50: 4-5

After the regular season, Purdue played trampoline on the tournament bubble, but its win against Penn State in the Big Ten tournament likely cemented its bid in the NCAA tournament.

Matt Painter's team started off slowly but has come around as a team that demands respect. The Boilermakers will go back to a stretch of four games—all wins—when they beat No. 25 Iowa, No. 22 Indiana, No. 20 Ohio State and unranked Northwestern. All games with the exception of the Indiana win were close and tested this team.

ESPN.com's Seth Greenberg said this:

"

Think about where they were at the beginning of the season. Where they were at the beginning of the season was predicated on Matt Painter trying to figure out his basketball team. Who needs to play with whom. They’re back to their culture. You are who you are. They’re physical. They defend. They pound it inside.

"

Led by A.J. Hammons—one of the more underrated bigs in the land—and Rapheal Davis, Purdue will be a tough out in the tournament.

Providence Friars

John Minchillo/Associated Press

RPI: 22

Record vs. Top 25: 3-4

Record vs. Top 50: 6-8

This was the headline at one time during the up-and-down season that was basketball in Rhode Island: “Villanova Routs Providence for Ninth Straight Win.”

That was an 89-61 drubbing. Providence responded in kind by then beating Marquette, Seton Hall and St. John’s. There was a loss to No. 21 Butler in there, but that was only by four points, 68-64.

Providence met Villanova again for the third time of the season in the semifinals of the Big East tournament on Friday March 13th. The Wildcats—a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament—beat Providence (63-61) for the third time, and it didn’t come easy. The way Providence played makes the Friars a sleeper in the NCAA tournament.

Providence also has LaDontae Henton, a senior forward who had a breakout season scoring 19.7 points per game with 6.4 rebounds per game.

"We feel like we can play with anybody. We know it's not going to be easy," said Henton on FoxSports.com.

Kris Dunn, a sophomore guard, is right on Henton’s heels with 15.8 points, 5.6 rebounds and 7.6 assists per game.

That two-headed approach spells danger for any team in the early rounds of the tournament.

Providence is no longer the team that lost to Brown. This is the team that nearly beat Villanova. That’s the difference three months makes.

LSU Tigers

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

RPI: 52

Record vs. Top 25: 2-1

Record vs. Top 50: 3-2

Yes, yes, that's LSU, one of the more enigmatic teams in the country playing around on the bubble. With a twin-tower duo of Jordan Mickey and Jarell Martin—both of whom are averaging over 16 points and nine rebounds per game—it would be a pity not to see these guys in the NCAA tournament.

Foreboding as it was, LSU overcame its opening conference loss to Missouri and won contests against Florida and No. 18 Arkansas and came within two points of beating Kentucky.

Losses to Mississippi State and Auburn pepper LSU's schedule, and Mickey is dealing with a shoulder injury to his non-dominant left side. LSU needs him in the lineup if it has any chance at being a sleeper team. 

"Jordan is going to give us all he can, but if he's hurt, other guys have to be ready to jump in there and do whatever they can to help us win," guard Tim Quarterman said on NOLA.com.

LSU then lost a Tiger-tamer in overtime to Auburn in the SEC tournament, 73-70. After the loss, LSU lost its chance to choose its own destiny.

"We have been in a tough conference and we're hopeful on Sunday that our name is called," LSU head coach Johnny Jones said after the loss to Auburn.

Now they wait, but if the Tigers get in, it will avenge this late-season loss and claw its way to a win or two in the NCAA tournament.