Cory Schneider Deserves Hart Trophy Votes for Carrying the New Jersey Devils

There is no doubt that Cory Schneider is the New Jersey Devils' MVP this season. The team has struggled mightily at times, even after its coaching change at the end of December. Frequently, Schneider has been the only thing standing between the Devils and annihilation. 

In fact, there are incredibly few players in the entire NHL who have been more important to their team than Schneider. By taking a look at Schneider's season, as well as those of top contenders for the Hart Trophy (the NHL's MVP award), it becomes clear how valuable Schneider is.

Though Schneider winning the Hart Trophy would definitely be a stretch, it cannot be denied that he deserves a significant number of fourth- and fifth-place votes for the award.

Schneider's Season

If not for the mediocre start Schneider got off to this season, he might legitimately have a case to take home the Hart Trophy. The truth of the matter is, during October, he was relatively pedestrian. 

Schneider started all ten of New Jersey's games in October, going 5-3-2. He complied a 2.90 goals against average and a .906 save percentage, both of which are below the league average for goalies who have played at least 25 games. Of course, this is an example of why a goalie's record is essentially worthless in measuring his performance.

November brought an uptick in Schneider's play, as he went 4-7-1 with a 2.35 goals against average and a .922 save percentage during the month. December was even better, as his goals against average for the month was 2.23 and his save percentage was .924, though his record was a disappointing 3-8-1, which reflected New Jersey's poor overall play.

It is in January and February that Schneider went from good to great, though.

Month	Games Played	Games Started	Wins	Losses	Overtime Losses	GAA	SV%
January	8	8	5	1	1	1.89	.940
February	12	11	6	4	1	1.57	.948

Perhaps the first thing to jump out from these numbers is the significantly better record Schneider and the Devils had. While, as previously noted, a goalie's record is not a particularly accurate measurement of success, it is worthwhile to note that five of Schneider's 11 wins over these two months came in overtime, shootouts, one-goal games or two-goal games in which an empty-net goal was scored. Clearly, his play in tight games earned the Devils a significant number of points.

The most amazing aspect of Schneider's winter months is that despite facing an increase in shots, his goals against average dropped significantly. Over the course of January and February, he faced 30.5 shots a game—more than either November or December. In nine of 19 starts, Schneider faced more than 33 shots.

Yet, he was giving up less goals than he had all season. 

On the season, Schneider has a 2.22 goals against average and .927 save percentage, which are ranked eighth and third overall in the NHL, respectively. His goals against average may not seem spectacular, but the Devils give up the seventh-most shots per game in the NHL. That's more than any team with a goalie with a top ten goals against average in the league. In fact, the only decent team within half a shot a game of New Jersey is Montreal, whose goaltender Carey Price is almost a lock for the Vezina Trophy and a front-runner for the Hart Trophy.

Hart Trophy Candidates

To get an idea of what it would take for Schneider to be in the conversation for the Hart Trophy, we will have to get a decent understanding of what the front-runners for the award look like.

The most intriguing candidate, as well as the one that is most easily compared to Schneider, is the aforementioned Price. He leads the league in wins with 37, goals against average with 1.93 and save percentage with .935. Price has done all this in front of a team that is giving up the ninth-most shots in the NHL. Yet, the Canadiens are still tied for first overall in points in the NHL.

I do not in any way mean to suggest that Schneider is on the same level as Price this season. Price is the runaway Vezina Trophy winner barring any major changes, and he most certainly deserves it. But the gap between the goalies is not so massive that they belong in separate conversations.

To get a sense of the skaters possibly up for the Hart Trophy, take a look at the players with the most points in the NHL this season, courtesy of NHL.com.

NHL.com

John Tavares is having an incredible season for the Islanders. Not only has he put up tremendous numbers, he has also been invaluable to his team during the absence of Kyle Okposo, helping make up for the loss of Okposo's offensive production. 

Other possible candidates from this list include Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby and Vladimir Tarasenko.

Comparing Candidates to Schneider

To compare different players in this race, it is important to consider the factors that go into the determining of the MVP. Of course, strong statistics are important, but the value that a player adds to his team is equally important. The award does not always go to the player who is most valuable to his team, nor should it. However, the idea of value added is an important consideration.

For this reason, Ovechkin and Crosby start at a disadvantage in the running for the Hart Trophy. Ovechkin plays with Nicklas Backstrom, a top playmaker with 51 assists this season. Ovechkin is a world-class player, but he has certainly benefited greatly from playing with Backstrom. So, the value he adds to his team is somewhat diminished.

The same goes for Crosby. Though he does not regularly play with Evgeni Malkin, having two players on the same team with similar numbers often leads to the players splitting the votes that just one of them would have gotten had they not had a teammate in a similar position.

Tarasenko is an interesting consideration. He has no obvious flaws in his numbers, is clearly the top offensive player on his team and plays on a team that could end up being the best in the NHL at the end of the season. Of course, Tavares would also be an excellent choice.

Price also obviously provides intense value to Montreal. With the number of shots the Canadiens give up, they need a goalie who is the best in the league to be where they are in the standings right now.

A goalie could win the Hart Trophy this year. At the very least, top goalies deserve to be in the conversation this season given the landscape of the race. 

So, if it can be shown that Schneider is as valuable or nearly as valuable to the Devils as Price is to Montreal. There is no reason why Schneider would not deserve to be in the Hart conversation. There are two ways in which this becomes clear.

According to Hockey-Reference, the average save percentage in the NHL this season is .914. If Schneider was replaced by an average goalie by this metric, the Devils would give up 2.64 goals a game. Over his 58 starts, a goalie with a .914 save percentage would have given up around 153 goals—28 more than Schneider.

If we do the same for Price, the Canadiens would give up 2.61 goals per game. Over Price's 55 starts, a replacement-level goalie would have given up around 144 goals—38 more than Price.

These numbers reflect Price's superiority, but it is not a resounding difference. One final statistical consideration puts Schneider in an even more positive light. 

Hockey-Reference uses a statistic called point shares which determines the number of points a single player has contributed to his team. Unsurprisingly, Price leads the NHL with 14.1 points contributed. Schneider is second with 12.9. However, consider the percentage of points each player's contributions makes up of his team's point total.

Price's Canadiens have 91 points. His 14.1 points are around 15.5 percent of his team's points. The Devils have only 67, so Schneider makes up 19.3 percent of his team's points, easily the highest such percentage in the NHL. By this metric, without Price the Canadiens would have 77 points, putting them three points out of a playoff spot. The Devils, without Schneider, would have 54 points. This would make them the worst team in the Eastern Conference outside of Buffalo.

What Can We Learn?

As I said at the start, I am not trying to make the case that Schneider deserves the Hart. He got off to a slow start, plays on a bad team and is not even the best player at his position this season. Price has without a doubt been the NHL's best goalie this year and the numbers clearly prove that.

But, there is not a massive difference between the two goalies, especially with how bad the Devils have been in front of Schneider for most of the season taken into consideration. 

With an open Hart Trophy race as the season draws to a close, there is room for a diverse group to be picking up fourth- and fifth-place votes for the award.

Among those players should be the New Jersey's Cory Schneider.